US Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Tariff Concerns

US Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Tariff Concerns
Above: Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve on June 18, 2025, in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Chen Mengtong/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's relentless attacks on Powell have created an impossible trap: any rate cut now would appear as a shameful capitulation to White House pressure, devastating the Fed's credibility and terrifying bond investors. Powell must prove the Fed's independence remains sacred, or risk investors fleeing en masse from a compromised central bank.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump's fury is justified: With inflation tamed at 2.4%, oil prices plummeting, and tariffs enriching America, Powell's stubborn refusal to cut rates from their punishing 4.5% stranglehold is economic sabotage. The government incurs hundreds of billions of dollars in annual debt servicing, while Powell's reckless obstinacy crushes borrowers, stifling growth.

Government-critical narrative

Trump's reckless assault on Fed independence threatens to topple a cornerstone of global stability. His intimidation campaigns are weakening the dollar, driving gold prices higher, and spooking investors worldwide. By demanding White House control over monetary policy, Trump risks rendering U.S. economic credibility into rubble, triggering global chaos.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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