Research

Study: Sea Level Rise Only 1.5 mm Per Year, Likely Due to Non-Climate Factors

SEP 3 2025·Updated SEP 4 2025

Story

Above: Hotels destroyed by rising sea levels at the Grand-Bassam beach on July 13, 2025, on the Ivory Coast. Image credit: Issouf Sanogo/Getty Images

The Facts

A peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering found that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was approximately 1.5 mm (0.06 inches) per year, significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm per year often reported by climate scientists and media outlets.
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Michael Shellenberger on X
The study analyzed local sea level data from two global datasets and found that approximately 95% of suitable locations showed no statistically significant acceleration of sea level rise, contradicting predictions of accelerating rates.
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MDPI
Dutch engineer Hessel Voortman and researcher Rob de Vos conducted the first global comparison of sea level projections versus actual observations, finding that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections consistently overestimated local sea level rise by roughly 2 mm per year.
MDPI
Michael Shellenberger on X
Media reports and scientists had predicted sea level rises of 3 to 10 feet (0.9-3.1 meters) by the end of this century, with The New York Times citing estimates of at least four feet and The Atlantic quoting Princeton's Michael Oppenheimer's prediction of more than 34 inches by 2100.
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The study found that where acceleration was detected, local non-climatic phenomena, such as geological processes, glacial isostatic adjustment, tectonic motion and land subsidence, were plausible explanations rather than global climate change.
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MDPI
This comes as separate recent research from Hong Kong Polytechnic University published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that ice melt contributed approximately 60% of the 90 millimeters of global sea level rise between 1993 and 2022, with rates accelerating from 3.2 to 3.6 mm per year.
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The Spin

Climate-skeptic narrative

This groundbreaking study exposes a massive disconnect between climate alarmism and reality. For decades, scientists and the media have terrorized the public with predictions of catastrophic sea level rise that simply aren't materializing. The data shows sea levels are rising at a modest 1.5 mm per year — barely 6 inches per century — not the apocalyptic scenarios pushed by climate activists.

Michael Shellenberger on X

Climate-concerned narrative

Despite climate-denying research from fringe groups, most research confirms ice melt is accelerating sea level rise at unprecedented rates, with 85% of ocean mass increase now coming from melting ice sheets and glaciers. Current warming has already locked in 40% of global glacier loss, and without immediate action, three-quarters of glacier mass will disappear — fundamentally altering coastlines worldwide.

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Metaculus Prediction

Limited Coverage

This story currently has limited coverage. We will continue to monitor all major outlets and update our reporting as additional information becomes available.