Oman's Sultan Makes Historic First Visit to Russia

Oman's Sultan Makes Historic First Visit to Russia
Above: Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq attend a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on April 22, 2025. Image copyright: Kristina Kormilitsynal/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Given Oman's strategic position as a link between the Gulf region, Asia, and Africa, Haitham's visit further strengthens Russia's diplomatic foothold in the Middle East, with both countries sharing similar views on global issues, emphasising state sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs. The alignment between Russia and Oman also outmaneuvers Washington in the nuclear diplomacy arena and proves yet again that Moscow is a trusted diplomatic powerhouse.

Anti-Russia narrative

The Sultan's visit raises concerns about Russia's growing influence in the Middle East and its potential impact on Western interests in the region, especially given that it is the second time in less than a week that Putin has met a Middle Eastern leader in person. Amid regional tensions, and with the third round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington due to take place in Oman later this week, Moscow's self-serving shadow diplomacy could prove costly to regional stability.

Narrative C

The historic visit is further evidence of Oman's rising diplomatic stature due to its tradition of neutrality and a foreign policy characterized by cautious pragmatism and careful engagement in a region notorious for conflict and polarization. However, while Oman has gained recognition by maintaining friendly ties across geopolitical divides between East and West, its diplomatic balancing act may prove increasingly precarious as geopolitical tensions between key players rise.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Establishment split

CRITICAL

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