Pakistan Upgrades Diplomatic Relations with Afghanistan

Pakistan Upgrades Diplomatic Relations with Afghanistan
Above: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (C), Mohammad Ishaq Dar (L), and Amir Khan Muttaqi in Beijing, on May 21, 2025. Image copyright: Wang Ye/Contributor/Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

While the human rights situation on the ground in Afghanistan is unfortunate, realpolitik must set in in such a crucially strategic area, which means that the Taliban can't be sidelined. With the U.S. out of the picture, China has filled the void and has played the power broker with Pakistan and others. Border security, counterterrorism, and transit concerns necessitate this pragmatic thaw in relations as nations pursue their self-interests.

Narrative B

Pakistan must be careful what they wish for when dealing with the Taliban. Once a group that they helped nurture and use for strategic ends, they now have aims of installing a theocracy in Pakistan as well through the TTP and their assaults on Pakistan. Kowtowing and giving legitimacy to a group that seeks its destruction, Pakistan must choose to either reject these Islamist pressures or assent to them.

Metaculus Prediction

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