Reform Wins Runcorn By-Election by Six Votes, Make Gains in Local Elections

Reform Wins Runcorn By-Election by Six Votes, Make Gains in Local Elections
Above: Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and Sarah Pochin, the party's candidate, celebrate her victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election at the DCBL Stadium in Widnes, north-west England, in the early hours of May 2, 2025. Image copyright: Olie Scarff/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

Reform’s gains may grab headlines, but they’re no cause for celebration. Populist soundbites and Farage-style stunts won’t fix broken Britain. Labour must listen harder to working-class concerns, but the answer isn’t turning to the right. Reform’s rise thrives on fear, not solutions. Progress lies in fairer policies, not in scapegoating migrants or mocking climate action.

Right narrative

Reform's success is not a fluke but rather a decisive point in British politics. No seat is safe, as voters continue to turn to Farage not just out of frustration, but out of hope for real change. With bold leadership and rising support, the party looks set to reshape the status quo two-party system that has let down the country for decades on end.

Metaculus Prediction



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