Report: De Facto Partition of Gaza Increasingly Likely

Report: De Facto Partition of Gaza Increasingly Likely
Above: Palestinians walk amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on Nov. 7, 2025. Image copyright: Omar al-Qatta/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the future will be challenging, it is essential that both Israel and Hamas stick to the ceasefire. Of course, many aspects of the deal are potentially problematic, but nothing is gained from returning to war. Hamas must follow through with what it agreed to, and, in turn, Israel should not escalate the situation.

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas is saying one thing and doing another. With support from its backers in Doha and Ankara, Hamas believes that if it pays lip service to Trump's plan, it can do as it pleases and achieve the outcome it wants. The terror group is testing Israel's resolve by launching attacks on Israeli forces, and Israel must demonstrate that it will enforce the ceasefire unilaterally if necessary.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As always, Israel is doing everything it can to undermine and sabotage the ceasefire so that it can return to its genocidal campaign. Already, Israel has killed scores of Palestinians under false pretenses, and the only reason the situation has not escalated is that Trump pressured Netanyahu to maintain the ceasefire. Israeli forces have violated the ceasefire repeatedly, and it is up to the United States and the international community to prevent further Palestinian bloodshed.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies




© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.2

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.2