South Korea's Military Shrinks 20% Due to Low Birth Rate

South Korea's Military Shrinks 20% Due to Low Birth Rate
Above: South Korean military personnel during a military parade in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2023. Image copyright: SeongJoon Cho/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

South Korea's military downsizing is an indication of smart modernization rather than weakness. Advanced technology and stronger U.S. partnerships mean fewer troops can accomplish more than larger forces of the past. The defense budget now exceeds North Korea's entire economy, showing superior resource allocation.

Opposition narrative

This demographic crisis threatens national security when facing a 1.2 million-strong North Korean military. The 50,000 troop shortage, including 21,000 missing officers, creates dangerous operational gaps that technology cannot fill. Population projections show this will only worsen.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.14.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.14.0