ICJ Rules in Favor of Equatorial Guinea in Gabon Islands Dispute

ICJ Rules in Favor of Equatorial Guinea in Gabon Islands Dispute
Above: A view of the Peace Palace, home to the International Court of Justice, in The Hague, Netherlands, on May 1, 2025.  Image copyright: Mouneb Taim/Contributor/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The ICJ ruling rightfully upholds historical colonial boundaries and international law principles. The 1900 treaty established Spanish sovereignty over these islands, which naturally transferred to Equatorial Guinea upon independence. Gabon's military occupation since 1972 has been illegal, and its reliance on an unverifiable 1974 agreement shows the weakness of its territorial claims.

Narrative B

The Bata Convention of 1974 legitimately established Gabon's sovereignty over these islands, but poor archive management in challenging tropical conditions prevented preservation of the original document. The geographical proximity and historical connections between these islands and Gabon's mainland make them a natural extension of Gabonese territory. The Court ignored this reality.

Narrative C

This peaceful resolution is a clear win for the U.N. and multilateral diplomacy. Instead of escalating a decades-long dispute over oil-rich islands, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea chose international law and the ICJ. It's a testament to the U.N.'s role in defusing tensions and promoting lawful, cooperative conflict resolution between sovereign nations.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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