U.S. Retail Sales Drop 0.9% in May Amid Tariff Concerns

U.S. Retail Sales Drop 0.9% in May Amid Tariff Concerns
Above: Shoppers browse the frozen food cases at WinCo. Image copyright: Joe Jaszewksi/Idaho Statesman/Getty Images

The Spin

Republican narrative

The retail sales decline reflects temporary factors rather than fundamental weakness in consumer demand. Tariff front-running artificially boosted March purchases, making May's pullback a natural correction. The strong 0.4% gain in core retail sales shows underlying consumer spending remains healthy. The America First tariffs will lead to increased domestic manufacturing and grow the economy in the long run, justifying a short-term slip.

Democratic narrative

Consumer caution is deepening as households worry about tariff-induced price increases squeezing their spending power. The broad-based weakness across multiple categories signals genuine concern about economic prospects, not just timing effects from earlier purchases. President Trump's tariff regime will make life more expensive for Americans, cause significant damage to the U.S. economy, and fail to deliver growth.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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