Congolese Forces Retake Uvira After M23 Withdrawal
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Kinshasa emerges from the Washington Accords as a central actor in restoring order after decades of regional failure. The latest M23 withdrawal from Uvira allowed Congolese forces to re-enter the city, marking a tangible return of state authority in the east. Backed by sustained U.S. diplomacy, the ceasefire framework ties security to economic reintegration rather than endless mediation. It presents the Congolese state as the anchor of regional stability, not a passive observer.
Government-critical narrative
Kinshasa portrays itself as an innocent bystander while eastern Congo burns, carefully deflecting blame onto Rwanda and M23. In reality, the government has long backed its own armed proxies in the east, fueling the same cycles of looting, displacement, and abuse it publicly condemns. Each announced rebel “withdrawal” exposes the vacuum left by a state that governs through militias and denials. Civilians pay the price for a strategy built on plausible deniability rather than responsibility.
Metaculus Prediction
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