Paxton Defeats Cornyn in Texas Senate Primary
Is Ken Paxton's primary win proof of Trump's iron grip on the GOP or a gift to Texas Democrats?
Above: Ken Paxton during a campaign rally at Matt's Rancho Martinez in Allen on May 19, 2026. Image credit: Elías Valverde II/The Dallas Morning News/Getty Images
The Spin
Republican narrative
Ken Paxton's primary win proves Donald Trump has an iron grip on the Republican Party — backing Paxton seals the deal. Trump is the GOP's chief strategist, chief advocate and chief voice, and no one will have a bigger impact come November. Texas needs to unite behind Paxton to keep a radical Democrat out of the Senate.
Democratic narrative
Ken Paxton was impeached by his own party, paid $300,000 to settle felony fraud charges and is still under investigation for mortgage fraud — this is the GOP's pick. Nominating someone this compromised hands Democrats a real shot at flipping a Texas Senate seat. James Talarico has a clear path to victory against a deeply corrupt politician.
Metaculus Prediction
The Controversies
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.6.2
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.6.2