Babies

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

Is falling global fertility an unstoppable civilizational collapse, a reversible crisis or a sign of social progress worth embracing?

AUG 23·Updated AUG 24

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

Story

Above: Children take part in the 6th Beijing Twins Festival on Oct. 6, 2009. Image credit: CN-STR/AFP/Getty Images

The Facts

A new paper by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde on X
ZME Science
Forbes
The paper, titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects that world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the U.N.'s central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
University of Pennsylvania
United Nations
Using a single-factor model covering 236 countries from 1950 to 2023, the authors found negative fertility trends in 219 of them, with a common global fertility component that peaked in 1978. Some of the steepest declines are occurring in middle-income countries, including Thailand, Tunisia, Algeria and Iran.
University of Pennsylvania
ZME Science
Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems were about 9.3% below U.N. projections, with Colombia 36.5% below, South Africa 33.4% below, and Thailand 24.1% below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.
University of Pennsylvania
A separate Our World in Data analysis from last week notes that 64 countries and territories, primarily in Europe and East Asia, had already passed peak population as of 2026, with many experiencing structural population decline. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per U.N. medium-variant projections.
Our World in Data
Africa remains the only region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, at roughly 4.0 births per woman, though U.N. projections expect it to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for remaining global population growth through the century.
Pew Research Center
Space Daily

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

Global fertility has fallen below replacement for the first time, and the real shock is that the collapse is hitting middle-income countries hardest — Thailand at 0.87 births per woman, Colombia at 1.01, while modernity makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap. No economic incentive pushes fertility back to replacement, and South Korea shows how hard reversal can be: stabilizing its population would require a huge baby boom, massive migration or extraordinary longevity. Slower GDP growth, strained pensions and shrinking labor forces are the new normal.

University of Pennsylvania

Our World in Data

Narrative B

Falling birth rates are a policy and cultural problem, not an unstoppable fate. France shows that sustained pronatal policies — from tax breaks and child benefits to flexible childcare — can raise fertility, and modest gains compound into millions more people over generations. But policy alone is not enough, as societies also need norms, communities and role models that make marriage, parenthood and bigger families aspirational. Ultimately, demographic decline is not destiny.

Institute for Family Studies

Elon Musk on X

Narrative C

Falling birth rates are not a civilization-ending crisis, but a consequence of social progress that societies should embrace rather than panic over. As women gain education, economic freedom and control over reproduction, families shrink alongside lower child mortality and greater prosperity. Fewer people could also mean less pressure on resources and ecosystems, while technology and rising productivity can sustain living standards without endless population growth.