UK: Labour Defeats Polanski and Greens in Seat Vacated by Starmer

Has Labour effectively fended off the Greens or is the party still going to be a threat?
UK: Labour Defeats Polanski and Greens in Seat Vacated by Starmer
Above: Sagal Abdi-Wali after being declared the winner of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on Oct. 9, 2026. Image credit: Jordan Pettitt/PA Images/Getty Images

The Facts

  • Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on Friday, retaining the party's control of the London constituency that was vacated by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in early September.
  • Abdi-Wali, who is leader of Camden Council, secured 45% of the vote with 12,292 ballots and was trailed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski with 8,928 ballots at 33%.
  • Polanski, who this week came under fire after his party passed a motion declaring Zionism as a form of racism, insisted he would remain on as Green Party leader after the defeat.

Sources Split


The Spin


Narrative A

This result is a win for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, showing that Labour has been able to recover some public support after the leadership of Keir Starmer. While Labour still faces a significant challenge from the Greens in urban areas, this result shows they've been able to fend off the threat.

Narrative B

Labour holding onto a seat they've always won is no revelation. And while the Greens didn't win, there are still a lot of positives they can take away. The result shows they are still trending upwards and when the prime minister's honeymoon period is over, especially after the next budget and a winter of high energy bills, they will be serious contenders.


Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.18.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.18.2