Should Ecuador apply the "Bukele strategy"?
Voz MediaJan 29
Ecuadorians Approve Security-Focused Referendum
The Facts
Voters in Ecuador have approved new security-related questions in a referendum held on Sunday, including allowing the military to support police and stiffer penalties for crimes such as terrorism.
According to data from the National Electoral Council, early results suggest that all the nine security measures that Pres. Daniel Noboa brought forward are on track to receive around a two-thirds approval margin.
The Spin
Narrative A
As Ecuador faces an unprecedented security crisis, with drug lords exerting control over prisons as well as influencing the media, political sphere, and judiciary system, there's no other way than to apply the Bukele alternative — which Ecuadorians badly want. This vote has demonstrated their broad support for tough-on-crime measures.
Narrative B
With this referendum, Noboa has sought to get public support to replicate in Ecuador what Nayib Bukele did in El Salvador as if this anti-crime strategy was a magic solution. However, the effectiveness of so-called Bukelism is nothing but a myth that authoritarians have promoted to undermine democracy and the rule of law in their own countries.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Ecuador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.