Controversy
Status:Open
Will the EU's Emissions Trading System Carbon Allowance Reach at least €100 per Metric Ton in 2027?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Morgan Stanley"Coupled with rebounding industrial output, Morgan Stanley predicts, the tighter supply of new permits will push up the carbon permit price to €120 in 2027, and €135 in 2030."Oct 16, 2026
IndexBox"Key insights from the Carbon Forward Expo London conference reveal a consensus among analysts that EUA prices could escalate to at least €100/t by 2027."Oct 16, 2025
Fastmarkets"Under current policy, prices could rise as high as 163 €/tCO2e in 2027 according to Fastmarkets Carbon analysis."Apr 24, 2026
Vertis Environmental Finance"EUAs are projected to average €100/t from 2027. What that means for companies? According to analysts, EU Emissions Allowances (EUAs) could average €100 per tonne annually from 2027, marking a significant jump in carbon pricing dynamics."Mar 11, 2026
Veyt"For 2027 and 2028, we forecast the EU carbon price to reach EUR 158/t and EUR 169/t, EUR 7/t and EUR 2/t than our previous report."Mar 18, 2026
SEB Research"In the medium term, a lower LRF implies a softer supply trajectory, leading to gradually rising but flatter prices, reaching around €100/t by 2030 and €150–160/t by the mid‑2030 In the long term."Oct 14, 2026
World Economic Forum"The price of permits to emit carbon in the European Union’s (EU) Emissions Trading System looks set to climb above the €100 level in 2026 for the first time since early 2023."Mar 05, 2026
BloombergNEF"BloombergNEF’s forecast chart projects that EU ETS1 carbon allowance (EUA) prices will average approximately €90 per metric ton in 2027, below the €100 threshold."May 01, 2024
MATERIA"Materia’s own modelling shows the 2027 annual average at €88, clearly below €100."Jul 28, 2026
Reuters"According to a survey of nine analysts, EU allowances are forecast to average €79.97 per metric ton in 2026 and €89.13 in 2027, down from forecasts made in April of €80.61 and €93.29 respectively."Oct 14, 2026
GMK Center"The average carbon price is projected to... cross into triple digits by 2027."Oct 14, 2026
European Commission"Future markets signal only slight ETS1 price increases by 2027: around EUR 2 higher in December 2026 than in December 2025, and EUR 4 higher in December 2027, with limited liquidity on the future market beyond 2026."Nov 19, 2025
Goldman Sachs"Goldman Sachs forecasts carbon allowance prices on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) could reach €130 ($142) per ton by 2028, up from the current average of €66 per ton."Oct 14, 2026