Manifold

Manifold

Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform founded in 2021 by Austin Chen and James Grugett that allows users to create and trade on markets about future events using play money. The San Francisco-based company operates as a public benefit corporation, focusing on improving forecasting and decision-making through crowdsourced predictions on topics ranging from politics to technology.

Claims from Manifold

Manifold
Manifold"There is an 84% chance that Arsenal will win the English Premier League 2025-26."Jul 20, 2026
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Manifold"There is a 56% chance that Kimi Antonelli will win the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship."Jul 05, 2026
Manifold
Manifold"There is a 32% chance that the UK will enter a technical recession in 2026."Jul 06, 2026
Manifold
Manifold"There is a 68% chance that Samuel Alito will be the next Supreme Court justice to retire/die."Jul 01, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.13.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.13.0