European Space Agency"The final glimpse of the asteroid as it faded from view left it with a 4% chance of hitting the Moon on 22 December 2032."Aug 19, 2025
European Space Agency"The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon on 22 December 2032 is now approximately 4%, and this probability was still slowly rising as the asteroid faded out of view."Jan 15, 2025