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Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit Earth/Moon?

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Last Updated 4 days ago

Live Science"The risk of an Earth impact has since dropped to zero, but there's still a slim chance 2024 YR4 could hit the moon in 2032 — 3.8% likelihood as of early April."Apr 09, 2025

Live Science

NASA"There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon."Aug 02, 2025

Orbitaltoday

NASA Space News "As of mid-2025, the asteroid's chance of striking Earth in 2032 is virtually zero."Jul 13, 2025

Nasaspacenews

NASA"As a result [of Webb data], the asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%."Jun 06, 2025

NASA Science

NASA"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon."Apr 04, 2025

BBC News

European Space Agency"The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 has increased to 2.8%."Feb 20, 2025

Theweather.com

NASA Space News Asteroid 2024 YR4's "odds of hitting the moon now sit at about 4.3%."Jul 13, 2025

Nasaspacenews

arXiv"On 2032 December 22 the 60 m diameter asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of impacting the Moon."Jun 12, 2025

arXiv.org

University of Western OntarioAsteroid 2024 YR4 is "confidently expected to miss the Earth but that as of this writing has a 4% probability of striking the Moon at 13 km s⁻¹ on 2032 December 22."Sep 08, 2025

Physics

David Rankin"As of now, there is still a 97.9% chance of a miss with respect to Earth."Feb 12, 2025

Live Science

AkaSciAsteroid 2024 YR4 "has a 1.3% probability of striking earth on Dec 22, 2032 (i.e., it has a 98.7% chance of missing earth)."Jan 30, 2025

Fosstodon

Chris Lintott "Now we know the Earth isn't in danger, I'm very excited by the 3-4% chance asteroid 2024YR4 might hit the Moon."Sep 08, 2025

Bluesky Social

European Space Agency"The final glimpse of the asteroid as it faded from view left it with a 4% chance of hitting the Moon on 22 December 2032."Aug 19, 2025

X

NASA"That probability [2024 YR4 hitting the Moon] is currently 1.7%."Mar 28, 2025

NASA Science

NASA"While still an extremely low possibility, additional observations and analysis of asteroid 2024 YR4 indicate that its impact probability with Earth has increased to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032."Mar 28, 2025

NASA Science

European Space Agency"The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon on 22 December 2032 is now approximately 4%, and this probability was still slowly rising as the asteroid faded out of view."Jan 15, 2025

ESA

SPACE.COM"The asteroid, which at one point had a 1 in 43 chance of striking our planet, now has a 1 in 25 (4%) chance of hitting the moon in 2032."Jul 11, 2025