Science & technology

Study: 4.3% Chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hits Moon in 2032, Nuclear Deflection Modeled

Published OCT 2 2025

Story

Above: Artist rendering of NASA’s DART probe approaching asteroid Didymos and its moon Dimorphos. Image credit: Nicholas Forder/Future Publishing/Getty Images

The Facts

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to have roughly a 4.3% chance of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, according to recent analyses that refined its trajectory using new observations and modeling. The estimate comes from a study by researchers including multiple NASA scientists.
NASA Science
arXiv
Earlier this year, 2024 YR4’s chance of hitting Earth climbed to approximately 3.1% — a record for its class — before additional observations reduced the probability to 0.00081%, and removed any potential 2032 Earth impact from risk lists. The asteroid was first detected in December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope system in Chile.
Straight Arrow News on Youtube
Live Science
NBC
Researchers estimate 2024 YR4 to be about 60 ± 7 meters in diameter and potentially up to 2 billion pounds. The study proposes a nuclear "robust disruption" mission — launching two 100-kiloton devices, each roughly five to eight times more powerful than those used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki — between late 2029 and late 2031 to fragment the asteroid if a lunar impact is confirmed.
Futurism
New York Post
Star Walk
Alternatives modeled on NASA’s 2022 DART impact were evaluated, but researchers judged deflection impractical for 2024 YR4 because its exact mass is unknown and there is limited time for reconnaissance before the 2032 approach. The study cites risks of inadvertently changing the trajectory toward Earth.
Futurism
The Indian Express
Vice
If 2024 YR4 were to hit the moon, models suggest debris from the impact could increase the number of tiny meteoroids near Earth by up to 1,000 times for several days, raising risks for satellites and astronauts on the International Space Station and potentially disrupting spacecraft operations.
Discover Magazine
NBC
Straight Arrow News
Researchers say the asteroid’s 2028 close approach should help confirm or rule out a lunar impact in 2032, and NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope early next year to refine its orbit and improve the probability estimate, possibly reducing the impact chance to zero.
NBC
Discover Magazine
New York Post

Sources Split

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The Spin

Narrative A

Nuclear robust disruption is likely the most feasible mitigation option for 2024 YR4’s potential lunar impact in 2032. With roughly a 4% impact probability, the asteroid’s uncertain mass and limited reconnaissance window make deflection missions like DART impractical and potentially dangerous to Earth. Launching two 100-kiloton nuclear devices between late 2029 and late 2031 provides a viable option to fragment the asteroid before approach.

arXiv

Narrative B

Early forecasts for 2024 YR4’s potential lunar impact in 2032 remain highly uncertain and evolve with each new observation. Even if it did hit Earth, the asteroid’s modest size — comparable to the Chelyabinsk impactor — means damage would be minor and localized. Experts emphasize tracking and data collection first, rather than drastic measures, since odds and risks are likely to drop as observations improve.

Science Media Centre

Elihu Who on X

Narrative C

Deploying a nuclear device to nudge or disrupt asteroid 2024 YR4 is not just a technical challenge — it’s a geopolitical minefield. Any attempt to alter its trajectory could shift risk across borders, sparking international disputes over who controls the asteroid’s path. With China and the U.S. racing for lunar and orbital dominance, a nuclear intervention could inflame tensions, violate treaties, and set a dangerous precedent for militarizing space.