Will US Unemployment Reach 4.5% by December 2026?

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Vanguard"The 2026 year-end outlook for the U.S. unemployment rate is 4.6%."May 15, 2026

Vanguard

Kalshi"There's a 29% chance that the U.S. unemploment rate will be above 4.5% by the end of 2026."Sep 24, 2026

Kalshi

Nomura"Solid growth and easing supply constraints are likely to drive a rebound in labor data. The unemployment rate is likely to reverse some of its recent increase, declining to 4.0% by year-end 2026."Jan 29, 2026

Nomura Connects

Indiana Business Review"The Indiana Business Research Center forecasts real GDP to grow at 1.8% in 2026, with unemployment rising to 4.8% and inflation continuing its trajectory to 2%."Sep 24, 2026

Indiana

Congressional Budget Office"The unemployment rate reaches 4.6 percent in 2026 and then declines to 4.2 percent in 2032."Sep 24, 2026

Cbo

"There is an 18% chance that the U.S. unemployment rate will be at least 4.5% by December 2026."Sep 01, 2026

Manifold

Coinbase"There is a 29% chance that the U.S. unemployment rate will be above 4.5% at the end of 2026."Sep 24, 2026

Coinbase

RSM US"We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, accompanied by an increase in PCE inflation to 2.7% and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%."Apr 21, 2026

RSM US

The Wall Street Journal"[Economists] expect the unemployment rate will be 4.5% in December, matching their forecast in January, before the war."Sep 24, 2026

Wall Street Journal

Bankrate"The average forecast among economists calls for a 4.5% unemployment rate by December 2026."Sep 24, 2026

MSN

ABA Banking Journal"The committee expects the unemployment rate to increase and peak at 4.6% in the first half of 2026 and then drift down slightly through the end of next year."Sep 24, 2025

ABA Banking Journal

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia"The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 4.4% this quarter to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026."Mar 06, 2026

Philadelphiafed

Goldman Sachs"Our baseline forecast for the labor market is that a small pickup in GDP growth and a decline in policy uncertainty will boost hiring just enough to stabilize the unemployment rate at 4.5%."Jan 11, 2026

Gspublishing

Congressional Budget Office"The unemployment rate reaches 4.6% in 2026 and then declines to 4.2% in 2032."Sep 24, 2026

Cbo