US Sanctions Putin's Reputed Girlfriend
On Tues., the US Treasury Dept. imposed a new round of sanctions on members of Kremlin-linked elites, including Alina Maratovna Kabaeva, a former Olympic athlete and MP who is reportedly the girlfriend of Russia's Pres. Putin.
She's among 13 Russian nationals recently added to the sanctions list as the US targets Russian officials and companies over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The move has been under consideration at least since Apr., when the WSJ reported the US's concern that such sanctions could fuel tensions with the Kremlin. Kabaeva, who is currently the head of the National Media Group, a pro-Kremlin company, has previously been sanctioned by the EU and the UK.
Pro-establishment narrative
The only way to make Putin halt the invasion of Ukraine is to squeeze members of his inner circle. Harsh sanctions will at very least force him to the table over the situation in Ukraine.
Establishment-critical narrative
Western sanctions on Putin's inner circle won't work. They only expose how little the West understands about the relation between the Kremlin and the so-called "Russian oligarchs." Only sanctions that effectively weaken the Russian economy will force Putin to reevaluate the war in Ukraine.
Nerd narrative
There's a 92% chance that Russia will be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 162 Roundup: UN to Investigate Blast That Killed Ukrainian POWs; US Senate Backs Finland and Sweden's NATO Bids
Following requests from both Russia and Ukraine, the UN has confirmed it will conduct a 'fact-finding mission' into the deaths of Ukrainian POWs killed at the Olenivko prison barracks in territory controlled by pro-Russia separatists in Donetsk on Jul. 29. The UN's António Guterres said the agency didn't have the authority to conduct a criminal investigation, but that it was currently agreeing the terms of reference for a probe with both countries.
Russia alleges the attack – in which 53 prisoners were killed and 75 more were injured – was a result of Ukraine's deployment of US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Meanwhile, Ukraine alleges that Donetsk separatists collaborated with Russian intelligence, and mercenary group Wagner, to mine the prison before "using a flammable substance, which led to the rapid spread of fire in the room."
Meanwhile, unnamed US intelligence officials told the media that they believe Russia is working to fabricate evidence from the attack, claiming, without evidence, that the Kremlin may seek to plant ammunition fragments from other HIMARS attacks.
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin has sorely miscalculated with this invasion. Western nations have shown exceptional resilience and solidarity in response to Russia's assault on democracy and the geopolitical power balance in Europe. It is very unlikely the Kremlin will retaliate against Finland and Sweden joining NATO, especially as it's reckless attack on Ukraine has decimated its military resources.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sweden and Finland's decision to join NATO wouldn't be without risks. Despite the rapid evolution of public opinion there isn't clear majority support for the move in either nation and even an immediate application could take months to process, leaving them vulnerable to a strike by an enraged Vladimir Putin.
Nerd narrative
There is a 14% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Restore Pig Organs After Death
According to research published in the journal Nature, scientists were able to restore circulation to pigs' organs an hour after the animals died, by pumping a synthetic blood substitute through the blood vessels.
Yale researchers developed a device, titled 'OrganEx', that delivers a substance containing compounds that maintain organ function. The development builds on a 2019 breakthrough that saw a team restore a pig's brain functions four hours after death.
Although the organs didn't immediately begin functioning normally, they demonstrated signs of cellular regeneration while the pigs' hearts emitted electrical activity.
Narrative A
Animal testing is cruel, unethical, and dangerous to humans. The National Institute of Health has admitted that 95% of animal tests - which cost US taxpayers more than $15B per year - fail to translate to humans. This money would be better spent on new methods, including the use of microchips that construct postage stamp-size organs from human cells.
Narrative B
This revolutionary treatment is a major breakthrough that could one day save the lives of people who would currently be considered dead. Although there's a long way to go before human application, the practical use of this system could eventually keep organs healthy for longer and provide those in need with transplants.
Nerd narrative
There is a 27% chance that any human will live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the receipt of a lab-grown organ before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Border Patrol to Investigate Alleged Confiscation of Sikh Turbans
US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Chris Magnus said on Wed. that the agency has opened an internal probe into claims that dozens of Sikh asylum seekers have had their turbans confiscated and discarded at the US southern border in recent months.
The allegations were made in a letter sent by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) on Monday. Since turbans are part of the religious practices of Sikhism, the ACLU also accused CBP of committing "serious, religious-freedom violations," and violating internal rules regarding religion and property.
The human rights group said they raised a similar issue to CBP and others in 2019. This is also not the first time alleged Sikh discrimination makes the headlines, with activists pointing to the stigma associated with the turban after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Establishment-critical narrative
Turbans are important articles of faith to Sikh men. Denying individuals the right to retain their religious clothing is dehumanizing and denies them their right to religious practice. The CBP should immediately halt this practice, investigate, and reprimand those who knowingly violated religious freedom laws.
Pro-establishment narrative
The CBP confiscates turbans only when there's a security risk, and the turbans that were discarded happened to be damaged or wet. This is in line with many of the standard CBP protocols. We should wait for the conclusion of the investigation before making a judgment.
NFL Fines, Suspends Dolphins Owner for Tampering
Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross was suspended Tues. by the NFL through Oct. 17, 2022, and fined $1.5M for tampering with quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Sean Payton while they were with other organizations.
In addition to Ross' fine and suspension, the Dolphins will forfeit a 2023 first-round and a 2024 third-round draft pick. Ross is not permitted to enter a Dolphins facility until his suspension has been served.
Miami's punishment is the result of a six-month NFL investigation that found the Dolphins had prohibited conversations with Brady between 2019 and 2022, while he was playing with both the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with Payton, who was coaching the New Orleans Saints, in an attempt to actively recruit them.
Pro-establishment narrative
The NFL is showing it takes misconduct seriously. It is very unusual for you to see the NFL commissioner go after an owner with such veracity. Considering Ross' punishment, and the NFL's current attempt to get Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson suspended for longer than the six games that an independent disciplinary officer banned him for, Roger Goodell seems to be growing in confidence when it comes to cracking down on actions that tarnish the league's image.
Establishment-critical narrative
Many of the problems in the NFL begin with the team owners. Before the Ross suspension, the NFL's slap on the wrist for Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder proved it is incapable of policing itself. Weak punishments only serve as an optical illusion to distract from the seriousness of these violations and keep the league gaining fans and pocketing their money.
Narrative C
Interestingly, had the Dolphins flopped in 2019, Ross' punishment could've been much more severe. Ross should be more apologetic, especially toward Flores, who coached his team so well that the investigation determined the offer to tank games wasn't serious.
OPEC+ Makes Smallest Oil Output Increase in its History
The Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) augmented by a consortium of partners including Russia known as OPEC+, announced on Wed. that it would increase oil output by 100K barrels a day from Sept. - the smallest increase in its history.
According to analysts, OPEC+'s decision is a setback to US Pres. Biden's latest efforts to encourage Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, to pump more oil to help the US and the global economy.
According to OPEC+, the minimal increase, equivalent to 86 seconds - or 0.1% - of global oil demand, is a precautionary measure amid severe market volatility, coupled with a lack of excess capacity and insufficient investment in the oil sector.
Pro-establishment narrative
The ambition of the Biden administration is to make oil supply meet oil demand. In fact, the price of barrels of oil has come down. Earlier this summer the price was about $120/barrel and now it's hovering around $95/barrel. We've seen the fastest decline in gas prices in over a decade. The US policy efforts are on the right track.
Establishment-critical narrative
This minuscule increase in OPEC+ production is a betrayal of Biden's efforts to bolster US energy security. At an equivalent blip of 86 seconds of total global oil demand, this gesture shows that recent US efforts in the Middle East were fruitless. Saudi Arabia and the oil cartels hold all the cards in the energy poker game.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the price of oil will be at least $92.1 per barrel by December 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Reports: DOJ Subpoenas Former Trump WH Counsel
Former Trump White House counsel Pat Cipollone has reportedly been subpoenaed by a federal grand jury investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
There are currently two federal investigations underway – one focused on the riot, and another on an alleged fake elector scheme by Trump's lawyers – though it isn't clear which jury specifically issued the subpoena.
Cipollone has already testified to the House Jan. 6 committee – for seven hours behind closed doors – after other witnesses detailed his efforts to block some of Trump's proposed actions related to the election results.
Democratic narrative
The DOJ is weeding through Trump's inner circle and closing in on him just in time. Even if Republicans take the House in the fall they won't be able to stop federal criminal charges against the former president and his colleagues, who are all complicit in a failed attempted coup and promulgating false conspiracies and claims of election fraud.
Pro-Trump narrative
Democrats are panicking about Trump's potential return in 2024, and doing anything to try and take him down. But just like the Russia hoax, Trump's alleged tax scams, and other fake news stories, nothing will ultimately come of this latest legal witch hunt.
Nerd narrative
There's a 19% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tudor Dixon Wins GOP Primary In Mich.
Tudor Dixon, a former conservative commentator on the cable TV program "Real America's Voice," won the Republican primary for Michigan governor on Tuesday. She will face Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Nov. 8.
After receiving 41% of the votes – more than 435K – she has become the first woman to be nominated by the GOP in the state's history.
Last Fri., Dixon received an endorsement from former Pres. Trump, consolidating her front-runner position against businessman Kevin Rinke, church pastor Ralph Rebandt, chiropractor Garrett Soldano, and real estate broker Ryan Kelley.
Democratic narrative
Dixon is a threat to Michigan not only due to her reactionary agenda but also to her ties with political insiders and donor interests. Unlike Gov. Whitmer, she will not pursue the best interests of the people. Dixon has also proved to be dangerous to democracy by supporting Trump's false and debunked election fraud claims.
Republican narrative
Families have chosen Dixon to change Michigan for the better and to make up for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's disastrous administration during the past four years. The GOP nominee will improve education, city safety, and businesses. Michiganders want to be part of a family-friendly, business-friendly state.
Nerd narrative
There's a 88% chance that Donald J. Trump will run for the office of President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Breonna Taylor: 4 Officers Charged for Death
Two current and two former police officers in Louisville, Ky. were charged on Thurs. with violating the civil rights of Breonna Taylor - a black woman who was killed in a 2020 raid.
Officers Joshua Jaynes, Kelly Goodlett, and Kyle Meany were all charged with falsifying an affidavit that led to the "no knock" warrant that ultimately led to Taylor's death.
According to the charging documents, the affidavit falsely claimed that officers had "verified" that a drug trafficking suspect was using Taylor's apartment as a location to receive packages.
Left narrative
This announcement is an important step towards healing the nation and bringing closure to Taylor's family. It will provide a sigh of relief for families who've lost loved ones to the actions of police officers, and may bring a new understanding of the lack of officer accountability that has enabled police violence against civilians and fueled racial unrest.
Right narrative
While Taylor's death was avoidable and a tragedy, the media is using it to fuel the war on cops. Those responsible should be held accountable, however, the officers who fired the shots that killed her were acting in self-defense. They didn't write the warrant, and aren't responsible for its accuracy.
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