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BP Profits Triple as UK Energy Bills Continue to Rise
On Tues., UK energy giant BP reported profits of $8.45B between April and June, the biggest quarterly profit in 14 years. The news comes amid surges in domestic energy prices in the UK, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Some of the profits were used to boost dividends by 10%, while company leaders announced plans to buy back $3.5B in shares.
BP also reportedly plans to use the earnings to invest more in new oil and gas production. The company's shares were up 4.3% as of Tues. afternoon, but remain roughly 10% below pre-pandemic levels.
Left narrative
Oil companies are profiteering while the poorest Brits struggle to afford basic necessities. 83% of BP is owned by institutional investors, meaning that powerful foreign financiers are benefiting from impoverishment in the UK. Energy corporations are greenwashing and squeezing the hardest-working for the benefit of the super-rich. The government must do more.
Right narrative
During the COVID lockdowns, travel and manufacturing slowed to historic rates and UK oil companies are still recovering from the losses resulting from Russian sanctions. BP has faced years of slow business and even took on $25B of charges when it wrote of its stake in Russian oil giant Rosnet. Things are not as rosey as they seem for energy companies and these profits don't justify the left's calls for further taxation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the price of oil will be at least $92.1 per barrel by December 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Kansas Votes to Retain Right to Abortion in State Constitution
On Tues. night, a primary ballot referendum saw residents of Kansas vote to retain abortion as a state constitutional right.
The Republican-proposed amendment - dubbed the "Value Them Both" Amendment - wouldn't have outlawed abortions but would've allowed lawmakers to pass legislation regulating access to the procedure.
With 95% of the votes counted, the pro-choice measure had won with 59% of the vote, making the plebiscite the most closely followed abortion vote since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Notably, the vote occurred in a state where the number of registered Republicans far outnumber that of registered Democrats.
Democratic narrative
Republicans weren't in touch with on-the-ground reality when they decided to bring this vote to the primary ballot. Trying to capitalize on typically low voter turnout in primary elections in a GOP-majority state only fired up the pro-choice liberals and moderates, resulting in a devastating loss to their agenda. Most Kansans, including Republicans, don't favor an abortion ban.
Republican narrative
The pro-abortion lobby used lies to convince voters that current laws in Kansas are moderate, but the Democrats and the state are now on track to legalize abortions even later in pregnancy than the current five-month limit. Given the unscrupulous spin of the left, the pro-life movement must work even more diligently to educate people on ways to protect the preborn and their mothers.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6% chance that abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Justice Dept. Sues Idaho Over Abortion Ban
The Biden admin. on Tues. filed a lawsuit against Idaho for its near-total abortion ban, set to take effect later this month. According to the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) the ban would make it nearly impossible to receive even a potentially life-saving abortion in certain emergency medical situations. This is the first such challenge to an abortion ban since SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade.
Idaho's trigger law, which was passed in 2020 in anticipation of the reversal of Roe, would make providing abortions a felony punishable by up to five years in prison. It does include exceptions for cases of rape or incest, or to protect the life of the pregnant woman in cases of medical complications, but the DOJ says these are too narrow.
The DOJ is suing under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act, which states that hospitals receiving Medicare funds "must provide medical treatment necessary to stabilize that condition before transferring or discharging the patient."
Republican narrative
SCOTUS has made it clear that states have the constitutional right to determine the legality of abortion and that is what's happening in Idaho. The DOJ's interference with state law is another example of Biden overreaching his powers and undermining federalism, while continuing to ignore issues that really should demand his attention like immigration and inflation.
Democratic narrative
The Idaho abortion ban conflicts with federal law and puts ideology above patient safety. Reproductive freedom is a fundamental right and Idaho's restrictive law is a dangerous display of control. Abortion should not be criminalized.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6% chance that abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 161 Roundup: Russia Accuses US of Direct Involvement in War; Refugees from Ukraine Exceed 10M
For the first time in the course of the war, Russia has accused the US of direct involvement in the conflict. Speaking with the BBC, Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia's defense ministry, said the assessment came after calls from Ukrainian officials were intercepted.
Konashenkov alleged the calls showed the US were approving targets for American-supplied rockets. Russian officials previously said the US was fighting Russia via a proxy, but stopped short of naming it a direct belligerent.
On Tues., Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu alleged that Russia has so far destroyed six High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) provided by the US, but this was denied by acting US Dept. of Defense spokesman Todd Breasseale who described the allegation as "patently false."
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 4% chance that Russia will invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community
Rashida Tlaib Wins Mich. Democratic Primary
US Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib won the Democratic nomination for a newly redrawn 12th district in Mich. Wed., defeating three other candidates who vied for the seat, including Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey.
Tlaib led Winfrey 64%-20% with more than a third of the expected vote counted by 12:30 am, about the time the race was called by the Associated Press.
Lathrup Village Mayor Kelly Garrett trailed with 10%, and former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson had 5%.
Democratic narrative
It's refreshing to see progressives like Tlaib continue to perform well in state politics. Tlaib works for her constituents, unlike many in Congress - especially the GOP - who would rather tow a party line that hurts their voters.
Republican narrative
Tlaib and other "progressives" like her are far-left extremists trying to fundamentally change American society. The US is a country based upon liberty and freedom, but Tlaib and her colleagues work to undermine those values that are a pillar of the US.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Tlaib's win is a victory over Israeli advocacy groups that seek to silence critics of Israel's harsh policies against Palestinians. The pro-Israel group Urban Empowerment Action (UEA) PAC spent nearly $700k backing Winfrey, but thankfully their efforts were in vain.
Pro-Israel narrative
Tlaib, like other members of the squad, has unrepentantly anti-Israel views and openly airs conspiracy theories that target Israel and the Jewish people. She even has close ties with Maher Abdel Qader, who is known for promoting anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. She shouldn't be anywhere near a Congressional seat.
Ethiopia: EU, US Envoys Urge Talks To Settle Tigray Conflict
On Tues., two envoys to the Horn of Africa - the US's Mike Hammer and the EU's Annette Weber - urged the Ethiopian government to resume basic services in Tigray to promote peace talks with rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
Hammer and Weber traveled to Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia's war-torn Tigray region, to advocate for the planned peace talks between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF.
According to the two Western diplomats, they had received security guarantees from the Tigray regional president and rebel leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, for workers to restore electricity, telecommunications, banking infrastructure and other essential services.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's absurd that the EU and the US, of all powers, are now setting themselves up as mediators of peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia. It was the West that previously interfered and took sides unilaterally with the TPLF, but the campaign to overthrow the democratically elected Abiy Ahmed failed miserably. The West has been complicit in serious human rights abuses and any of its advice on peace and dialogue should be taken with caution.
Pro-establishment narrative
The West is doing as much as it can to work diplomatically for peace, after formerly failing to stand up for its values when Abiy Ahmed, with his Eritrean and other allies, committed the most serious human rights crimes in Tigray. The Ahmed regime was willing to accept all this and the deaths of thousands of Tigrayans just because the TPLF stood in the way of his vision of a centralized Ethiopia.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Burkina Faso: Army Admits To Killing Civilians In Air Raid
Burkina Faso's military acknowledged on Wed. that counter-terrorist airstrikes carried out earlier this week in the country's southeast resulted in civilian deaths.
The army didn't provide the number of casualties, declaring only that "several dozen terrorists" were neutralized and that the civilian victims were near a terrorist safe house in the Kompienga-Pognoa region.
Reports from witnesses indicate that up to 37 people died during the drone strikes on Mon., and another nine were hospitalized with injuries in Dapaong, Togo.
Pro-establishment narrative
For years, Washington has warned that jihadists are targeting West Africa while they continue to destabilize the Sahel. Various coups in recent years have hampered the efforts of Western powers, mostly France and the US, to get the situation under control by militarily supporting local governments. The coup in Burkina Faso is just one of the latest sad examples.
Establishment-critical narrative
The deteriorating security crisis in West Africa is primarily the result of the West's decade-long political and military interference under the guise of fighting terrorism. There is hope for the region only when it's no longer possible for the West to pursue its geopolitical interests unchallenged by pretending to "help."
Pa. Supreme Court Upholds Mail-In Voting Expansion
Pennsylvania's mail-in voting law was upheld by the state's Supreme Court in a 5-2 decision released Tues., overturning a lower court ruling that found the act violated the state's constitution.
In the majority opinion, Justice Christine Donohue wrote that "we find no restriction in our Constitution on the General Assembly's ability to create universal mail-in voting."
The 2019 law, known as Act 77, was used for the first time in the 2020 presidential election to usher in the most sweeping expansion of voting access in the state for decades. Republican legislators, who voted in favor of the law when it passed, challenged it in July 2021 amid former Pres. Trump's allegations of voter fraud in the state.
Republican narrative
This outcome shows how far activist judges are willing to go, even if in direct contrast with the constitution. Voting by mail is likely to fall prey to those with ill intent, yet despite this, Democrat judges have decided to turn a blind eye to the plain language of their constitution - chasing "woke" ideologies over upholding the law.
Democratic narrative
Mail-in voting was a rousing success in 2020, as millions took advantage of this safe and accessible option, and it should continue into future elections. Republicans didn't have a problem with Act 77 when they voted it into law, and now are only protesting it to stay in Trump's good graces.
Narrative C
Extensive studies have demonstrated that voter fraud in the US is extremely rare, and allegations that this occurred in the 2020 election - or any other recent election - are baseless. While election integrity must absolutely be protected, chasing phantom voter fraud shouldn't be used as an excuse to undermine free and fair access to voting.
Biden To Sign Second Order On Abortion Access
Biden is set to sign a second executive order (EO) on Wed. that aims to protect access to abortion services after SCOTUS struck down the federal right to abortion earlier this summer.
He's expected to sign the order during the inaugural meeting of the Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access, an interagency task force created by the administration last month.
Wednesday's EO directs the Sec. of Health and Human Services (HHS) to consider actions guaranteeing protections for women traveling across state lines for abortions to have access to health care services, including through Medicaid.
Democratic narrative
While this is another step in the right direction, it's extremely limited in scope and the impact will likely be minimal. Not only should Biden declare a public health emergency, but Congress, too, needs to step up and codify the protections of Roe v. Wade to ensure that reproductive rights are protected.
Republican narrative
Abortion laws were left up to the states for almost 200 years before the Supreme Court nationalized the procedure in 1973. While pro-abortion activists may want us to believe that overturning Roe is the end of women's rights, the truth is that states' rights uphold America's democratic system and Biden is overstepping his bounds through illegitimate executive action.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Casey-era abortion rights will be granted in at least 57% of US states by May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Senate Passes Previously Stalled Veterans Act
The Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics (PACT) Act passed the Senate by a bipartisan vote of 86-11 on Tues., after Democrats allowed votes on a series of Republican-sponsored amendments related to the budget component of the bill. The amendments failed to pass.
The PACT Act, which passed the House in July, will now advance to the White House, where Biden is expected to sign it into law.
Tuesday's vote came after Republicans, led by Pat Toomey of Pa., blocked a procedural vote on the bill last week after they alleged the bill lacked the proper spending guardrails. Eleven Republicans, including Toomey, still voted against the bill.
Democratic narrative
This important bill shouldn't have taken so long to pass, and obviously, the Republicans were playing a political game with it because, without the bill changing, dozens of Republicans switched their vote from no to yes. Credit is due to the activists who didn't relent in pressuring the GOP throughout.
Republican narrative
This bill could've passed long ago had Democrats not tried the old Washington trick of taking a bill to benefit veterans and adding something unrelated, which wouldn't pass on its own. This bill still has major issues, but it's important to get it passed for the sake of veterans who need it.