Rohingya Mark 5 Years Since Exodus from Myanmar
On Thurs., Rohingya refugees marked the fifth anniversary of their mass exodus from Myanmar to Bangladesh. It's estimated that 740K people crossed the border in Aug. 2017 to escape a "clearance operation" launched by the Myanmar military.
Bangladesh is now home to over 1M Rohingya refugees that have arrived over decades and its officials have expressed frustration over their repatriation after failed attempts to send them back to Myanmar since 2017.
This exodus came as the Myanmar's government carried out a crackdown with the support of Rakhine Buddhists after Rohingya militants reportedly attacked more than 30 police posts in the northern Rakhine state on Aug. 25, 2017, killing 12 officers.
Establishment-critical narrative
International stakeholders should stop meddling in Myanmar's affairs for their own political purposes. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army carried out terrorist attacks in Rakhine, killing innocent civilians and law enforcement, and forcing locals to flee to Bangladesh. The government had to take action to restore peace and stability in the region, and did so in accordance to existing rules and regulations. It's now doing all it can to verify and repatriate those who fled, following bilateral agreements.
Pro-establishment narrative
There's plenty of evidence that Myanmar carried out a genocide campaign in Rakhine state in 2017, capping decades of discrimination and abuses against the minority Rohingya population. The international community is rightly speaking out against an oppressive and abusive regime. It's only a matter of time before those responsible must be held accountable.
Day 184 Roundup: Power Restarts at Nuclear Plant; Putin Orders 137K Troop Replenishment
According to reports published on Fri., power began to be restored to nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia power plant after nearby fires, allegedly caused by shelling, led to a short circuit in the power line connecting the plant to Ukraine's energy grid on Thursday. It was the first time the plant had been cut off from electricity in its 40 years of operation.
Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Zaporizhzhia, earlier said that disruptions to the nuclear plant caused electricity outages in Zaporizhzhia, Energodar, Melitopol, and Kherson, and confirmed the plant was forced to rely on backup generators. Power was restored to most regions by Friday.
Energoatom, Ukraine's state-owned nuclear company, said in a statement on Fri. that there were no issues with the plant's machinery or its safety systems. Work to reconnect two of the plant's six functioning reactors had been ongoing and was later confirmed to be complete.
Pro-establishment narrative
Experts have made it clear – the situation at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant presents the risk of another Chernobyl. Nuclear disaster has, miraculously, been avoided so far, but continuing risks to the safety and effectiveness of staff to control the reactors could have catastrophic consequences.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although Zaporizhzhia's cooling systems will be relatively vulnerable due to their contact with the outside world, the worst-case scenario would only cause serious damage at a local level. Both Russia and Ukraine are overstating the risk of nuclear catastrophe to galvanize domestic support for the invasion and play upon Western fears to incentivize providing military and public support respectively.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Google Flights Accused of 'Airbrushing' Carbon Emissions
According to climate experts, Google has "airbrushed" the full environmental impact of air travel through updates made to its flight carbon calculator in July.
Critics say the calculator - which estimates the potential impact of different flights on the climate - effectively halved total emission figures when it began excluding "carbon dioxide equivalent" emissions involved in flying, such as water vapour, last month.
Contrails - the wisps of ice crystals left in the air in the wake of a plane - are reportedly a contributor to global warming as they trap heat radiated from the Earth in the atmosphere.
Narrative A
Google is greenwashing the effects of the aviation industry and hundreds of millions of users are underestimating the environmental impact of their journeys as a result. Carbon footprint calculations are crucial to understanding the cost of human activity - Google needs to be held accountable for misleading consumers.
Narrative B
While Google's poor practices are certainly irresponsible, the very notion of a "carbon footprint" was the brainchild of big oil, designed to shift accountability for climate change from corporations onto individuals. Rather than concentrating on private individual actions to tackle global warming - as is encouraged by programs like carbon calculators - we must seek collective action and policy reform.
Nerd narrative
There's an 85% chance there will be at least 2˚C degrees of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DHS Shuts Down Disinformation Board
On Wed., Alejandro Mayorkas, Sec. of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS), said that the Disinformation Governance Board - which generated controversy when it was first announced earlier this year - has officially been shut down.
In April, when the board was originally proposed, Mayorkas said its goal was to combat online disinformation and the alleged threat it posed. He added that it would focus in particular on the spread of disinformation in minority communities ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
The proposal received immediate backlash from across the political spectrum, and Republicans in particular, on the grounds of free speech. Its choice for executive director, Nina Jankowich - who had served as a disinformation fellow at the Wilson Center - faced particular criticism and she later resigned.
Left narrative
After an unrelenting barrage of harassment and abuse towards Jankowicz, in addition to a gross mischaracterization of what the board would've done, right-wing trolls succeeded in bringing the effort to a halt. The irony that this decision was a hasty reaction to a right-wing operation only underscores why such a board is needed in the first place.
Right narrative
Governments have no business declaring themselves the arbiters of truth, not least because they're not impartial entities and they have a consistent record of lying to the public across history and political parties. The creation of the Disinformation Board is reflective of what an authoritarian regime would do and it's a good thing that this unethical idea has been mothballed.
UK: Ofgem To Raise Energy Price Cap To $4k
The UK's top energy regulator, Ofgem, has announced that the energy price cap will increase by 80% to £3,549 ($4,189) from the start of October.
The price cap - reviewed twice yearly - sets limits on how much retailers can charge for gas and electricity. It's not a strict upper limit, but rather reflects the yearly average consumption of UK households.
Starting January, the price cap will be updated quarterly to allow Ofgem to respond more quickly to changes in wholesale prices. Industry analysts predict the cap reaching £6K or even £6.6K in the winter and early spring.
Left narrative
Downing Street has shown a dereliction of duty at a time when ordinary people are struggling to afford basic necessities. The Conservative Party must stop prioritizing its own leadership election and must start acting to protect the most vulnerable from the effects of corporate greed and privatized public services.
Right narrative
Despite the assertions of the Labour Party, the government cannot control the international energy market. Gas and electricity companies aren't profiteering - the invasion of Ukraine has driven up wholesale costs and the cap has even forced dozens of companies to go under by keeping prices artificially low for consumers. Johnson's administration cannot be held responsible for these circumstances.
Narrative C
It's not just Russia pushing up energy prices but the effects of climate change. The UK is a net importer of energy from nations like Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands, but they have been hit by drought, forcing down their energy production. To mitigate the cost of living crisis we must look not only to geopolitics but to addressing climate change.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that the EU will meet its Paris Climate Agreement goals, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN Seeks $160M For Flooding in Pakistan
On Tue., the UN called for more than $160M in emergency funding to provide aid for millions affected by catastrophic flooding in Pakistan that has occurred since mid-June, killing more than 1,150 people.
At least 1M homes have reportedly been damaged or destroyed, 2M acres of agriculture submerged, and more than 33M people affected.
Initial estimates say the flooding has caused $10B in damage, but that amount is expected to continue to climb.
Narrative A
Though Pakistan doesn't contribute very much to global carbon emissions, climate change has its monsoon season highly erratic and unpredictable in terms of onset, intensity, and areas affected. Through little fault of its own, the country will continue to face these types of disasters. It's time to demand emergency climate action.
Narrative B
Pakistan's increasing monsoon disaster isn't only the result of climate change; government ineptness also plays a huge role. Cities lack basic government services, and poorly designed infrastructure is particularly vulnerable, allowing rains to wreak havoc.
Narrative C
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
US Open: Djokovic Withdraws Due to Vaccine
On Thurs., Novak Djokovic announced that he won't be travelling to New York to compete in the US Open due to entry restrictions as he isn't vaccinated against COVID.
This comes a day after the CDC updated international travel requirements, extending the need for non-US citizens and immigrants to "show proof of being fully vaccinated" for COVID before boarding their flight to the US.
Though unvaccinated visitors have been banned from entering the US since Oct. 2021, Djokovic had been hopeful that a new CDC regulation could allow him to play the Grand Slam, which begins on Mon. at Flushing Meadows.
Right narrative
It's outrageous that Djokovic is being punished for choosing what's best for him. The Biden admin's pseudo-scientific forever pandemic policy is an outdated power grab that makes little sense as COVID vaccine mandates have neither moral nor scientific arguments due to their ineffectiveness at preventing the spread of the virus.
Left narrative
Djokovic should know that choices have consequences. He's not a human rights hero by refusing to get vaccinated, just a hypocrite that has been defying science and health instructions after criticizing Naomi Osaka for not following the rules. Vaccines have been central to containing COVID and protecting the vulnerable and, as much as we'd like it to be, the pandemic isn't over yet. It's time for him to stop this stubbornness.
Cynical narrative
Yes, Novak Djokovic holds bizarre fringe beliefs and is solely responsible for this embarrassing situation. Even so, the US travel requirements don't make sense anymore as they only apply to international flights while domestic restrictions are almost entirely gone. Punishing Djokovic only provides additional fodder for the anti-vaxxers.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the all-time tennis slam singles record for men will be at least 24 by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sen. Johnson: FBI Slow-Walked Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation
According to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, new whistleblower claims have alleged that FBI officials obstructed investigations into Hunter Biden's laptop prior to the 2020 presidential election, saying they were "not going to change the outcome of the election again."
Johnson, in a letter to Inspector General Michael Horowitz on Wed., stated that due to "numerous credible whistleblower disclosures" the FBI "could not be trusted" to deal with Hunter Biden's laptop.
Johnson originally asked Horowitz to investigate the laptop on Oct. 21, 2020, but he declined, citing an ongoing US Attorney's investigation into Hunter Biden's tax affairs.
Republican narrative
If these allegations are true, the FBI will lose whatever little faith Americans still had in the institution. Beyond showing judicial favoritism for a sitting president's son, this news shows the lengths to which many high-level government officials went to shield Biden from bad publicity in 2020 and help his election campaign.
Democratic narrative
The right is trying to turn a story about Hunter Biden into one about his father. Besides the obvious fact that these are two completely separate individuals, the case against Hunter may never even come to fruition. Whether charges are brought or not, we should remember that this is a story about Hunter, not the president.
Narrative C
According to a YouGov-Economist poll, 61% of Democrats think it's at least somewhat important to investigate Hunter Biden. While the right has done a good job of making this seem like a partisan issue, the reality is that most Americans are united in wanting the truth surrounding this story.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that Hunter Biden will be indicted before November 5th, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Moderna Sues Pfizer Over mRNA Vaccines
On Fri., Moderna said it's suing Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech for allegedly copying the technology used for the first approved COVID vaccine, which they claim to have developed years before the pandemic.
The decade-old Cambridge, Mass.-based company filed the suit in both the US District Court in Mass. and Regional Court in Dusseldorf, Germany, seeking undetermined monetary damages from the period after March 8, 2022, when it started to enforce its patent after halting it during COVID.
Moderna said Pfizer stole two types of their intellectual property: An mRNA structure Moderna says it was the first to validate in human trials in 2015, and the second being the code for a spike protein it developed while working on a vaccine for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
Narrative A
Moderna publicly stated that other companies were allowed to use its technology during the pandemic, and only after Pfizer made billions more in profits is the company suing for damages. This is a surprising lawsuit, as Moderna could have easily enforced its patents from the beginning.
Narrative B
As the rightful owner of this mRNA technology, Moderna kindly allowed its invention to be used by other companies during the worst parts of the pandemic. However, once developing countries no longer faced issues with obtaining the vaccine, Moderna expected Pfizer to respect its patent and it has failed to do so.
DOJ Releases Redacted Mar-a-Lago Affidavit
The US Justice Dept. (DOJ) on Fri. released a redacted version of the affidavit used to justify the Aug. 8 search of former Pres. Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
The document, written by an unnamed FBI agent, says they had cause to believe Trump was still holding documents pertaining to "National Defense Information" and others "subject to record retention requirements."
Coming after Trump had delivered "15 boxes of records" - including "highly classified documents" - to the National Archives in Jan., the affidavit stated that the FBI wished to uncover whether any more sensitive material was being kept at Trump's home.
Republican narrative
The American public wanted to see the affidavit because of the unprecedented nature of the FBI raiding a former president's home, but all the DOJ did was show us pages of blacked-out lines. As for any new information, we now know the FBI combed through every inch of Trump's private residence and thought moving trucks were suspicious.
Democratic narrative
Given that these documents are almost always left sealed until charges are filed, the fact that any of the affidavit was publicized is surprising.Though the DOJ justifiably redacted the names of witnesses to protect them from potential retaliation, the affidavit still provided damning evidence against Trump.
Nerd narrative
There's a 36% chance that any US court will rule that Donald J Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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