UN: Somalia on the Brink of Famine
On Mon., the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that the south-central region of Somalia will likely fall into famine between Oct. and Dec. of this year.
Martin Griffiths, the OCHA's Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordination, declared that "famine is at the door," as Somalia faces a deadly and historic drought that has forced hundreds of thousands from their homes.
The situation has been exacerbated by rampant inflation and resource scarcity linked to the war in Ukraine - the African nation sourced 90% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine before the conflict started.
Establishment-critical narrative
Aid workers are terrified of either being kidnapped or killed in the conflict, or prosecuted for aiding and abetting terrorism if they cooperate with al-Shabaab in order to operate in areas they control - something that will cost innocent Somali lives. It's time that the world starts talking to al-Shabab and makes clear that humanitarian and charity workers won't be prosecuted for working with the militants who have widespread grassroots support in parts of Somalia.
Pro-establishment narrative
Al-Shabbab are a ruthless terrorist organisation dedicated to destroying Somalia, its people, and religion. It's time to declare an "all-out war" against them which will be sustained until every single region they control is liberated. Somalia only has one legitimate and internationally recognized government - these authorities cannot rest until al-Shabaab is destroyed.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by the end of Jan., 2055, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Kabul: At Least 6 Dead In Russian Embassy Suicide Attack
On Mon., a suicide bombing near Russia's embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan reportedly claimed the lives of at least six people, including two employees of the diplomatic mission, and injured another 10 people.
According to Moscow's Investigative Committee, the two embassy staff killed were the assistant secretary and a security guard, both Russian nationals.
The unknown attacker was reportedly approaching a crowd of people in front of the building when Taliban security forces identified him and subsequently shot him. It's not yet clear if the attacker set off the blast, or if the gunfire detonated the explosives.
Pro-establishment narrative
The tragic attack in Kabul is just the latest example of how the "emirate" is drifting into chaos and lawlessness since the Taliban took over. This is compounded by economic collapse and an acute food crisis. But even in combat, the Taliban are failing. The ruthless rampage of the IS and its Afghan branch bears witness to this.
Establishment-critical narrative
Afghanistan only makes the headlines when it comes to violence and tragedy. More attention must be paid to the country's humanitarian catastrophe. Due to the dire economic situation, 22.8M Afghans are facing acute food insecurity, and 3M children are at risk of malnutrition. The West contributes to this by not releasing Afghanistan's frozen reserve funds. This is a declaration of moral bankruptcy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Russia will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Pelosi Eyes Ambassadorship to Italy If GOP Wins House Majority
On Tues., Fox Business reported that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wants Pres. Biden to appoint her as the next US ambassador to Italy if Republicans win control of the House after this fall's midterm elections.
During July's congressional recess, Pelosi spent two weeks at an Italian beach club prompting speculation that the White House could be saving the job for her.
Despite it being reported in Feb. that Stephen Robert would be nominated, Italy remains the only G7 country not currently having a US ambassador. The post has been vacant since former Pres. Trump's appointee Lewis Eisenberg left in Jan. 2021.
Republican narrative
In a scenario where Republicans win control of the House and Senate, Pelosi shouldn't count on an easy confirmation as US ambassador to Italy. GOP Senators will make her pay for her disastrous, excessively partisan actions in Congress.
Democratic narrative
This "report" is meaningless because Democrats are going to retain control of the House. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, the political climate has shifted, as proven by victories in Alaska and New York's 19th District. Biden's legislative successes will also help Democrats avoid losses that a sitting president's party historically faces in midterms. Speaker Pelosi won't need to go anywhere.
Nerd narrative
There's a 78% chance that Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rescue Efforts Underway as China Earthquake Toll Rises
A magnitude 6.8 earthquake hit China's southwestern Sichuan province on Mon., leaving at least 66 people dead. The quake was felt 125 miles away from the province's capital, Chengdu, where many of the city's 21M residents are locked down under stringent COVID protocols.
China's president, Xi Jinping, ordered full government resources to support rescue efforts. The quake also damaged communications in remote, isolated areas.
Beijing deployed more than 6,500 rescue workers, including firefighters and armed police as well as four helicopters and two drones.
Anti-China narrative
Despite the swift actions of first responders, it's highly concerning that residents of Chengdu were prevented from going outside during the earthquake because of draconian COVID lockdowns. These measures ultimately posed a risk to safety in this disaster when time was of the essence.
Pro-China narrative
China is extraordinarily effective in mounting a coordinated response, including for this emergency. Whether it's COVID, floods, fires, or earthquakes, the PRC maintains robust disaster response capabilities. Residents have been told to make safe evacuations and with appropriate COVID protections in the event of aftershocks or other events.
Israel Says ‘High Possibility’ its Army Killed Shireen Abu Akleh
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Mon. that there is a "high possibility" that Palestinian-American Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was shot and killed by Israeli fire while covering a military operation in Jenin in May.
In a statement, they said that Abu Akleh was likely accidentally hit by IDF gunfire during a shooting exchange with suspects identified as armed Palestinian gunmen. The statement indicates that no one will be punished for the shooting.
No evidence was provided to support the claim that a fierce gunbattle was underway at the time that Abu Akleh was killed, however. Videos and witness accounts have shown no evidence of militants in the vicinity, and the area appeared to be quiet for several minutes before she was shot.
Pro-Palestine narrative
There's no doubt that Israeli forces deliberately killed Abu Akleh. She was hundreds of meters away from any armed clashes, Israeli snipers were present in the area, and several witnesses said that they had fired at her team. Israel continues to avoid accountability, as the international community has failed to apply meaningful pressure to bring her killers to justice.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though the death of Akleh is tragic, critics of Israel are always quick to jump to conclusions about events in the West Bank. Jenin is a well-known hotbed of terrorist activity. It's still possible that Akleh might have been caught in the crossfire from Palestinian gunmen. Even if she was killed by a stray Israeli bullet, her death was unintentional.
US: Russia to Buy North Korean Artillery
According to newly declassified American intelligence, Russia could allegedly be about to buy large quantities of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, in violation of UN sanctions.
The details on the exact types of weaponry are unclear, as well as the timing or size of the shipments. Beyond short-range rockets and artillery shells, the intelligence suggests Russia is also expected to try to buy additional North Korean equipment in the future.
For several months, Russian actions in Ukraine as well as disclosures from US intelligence have led Western analysts to assess that Russia has struggled with its high-tech weaponry, experiencing high rates of failure with its precision-guided weaponry like cruise missiles.
Anti-Russia narrative
The fact that Russia was so desperate it turned to the extremely isolated state of North Korea is evidence that Moscow is experiencing extreme supply shortages in Ukraine. International blockades and Western pressure are working to counter Russian aggression.
Pro-Russia narrative
The hegemonic policy of the West has left Russia no choice but to deepen relationships with trusted partners. The US and its allies have isolated and threatened Russia and it's in Moscow's best interest to forge strategic ties with North Korea, with or without the purchase of weapons. Both nations have endured the hardship of unfair sanctions.
Cynical narrative
This report should be taken with a pinch of salt until the sale can be independently verified. According to several anonymous US officials, the Biden admin has made it their strategy to deploy declassified intelligence as part of an information war against Russia and to deter Putin, even when the evidence isn't rock solid. How do we know this time is any different?
Nerd narrative
There is a 95% chance that Russia will be the world's most sanctioned country by Feb. 22, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Trump Operatives Accessed Georgia County Election Office
Surveillance video obtained by CNN and The Washington Post allegedly shows the former GOP chair for Coffee County, Ga., leading operatives for then-Pres. Trump's attorney, Sidney Powell, into the county election offices on Jan. 7, 2021 - the same day as a voting-system breach.
Powell was a prominent figure promoting Trump's election fraud theories.
The Georgia Bureau of Investigation is investigating the breach, which is also part of the Ga. District Attorney's probe into potential interferences by Trump's campaign into the results of the 2020 election.
Democratic narrative
The evidence that people close to Trump were accessing voting information for nefarious reasons keeps mounting. Powell is a conspiracy theorist who’s bought multiple baseless and debunked challenges to overturn the 2020 election results, and Latham was a fake elector. Both were already under investigation before these videos surfaced, and now investigators are clearly closing in on them, and possibly Trump.description
Pro-Trump narrative
Investigations like the one in Georgia are political weapons being used by Democrats to benefit their party and raise their own profile for personal gain. If Democrats had been accused of similar things, there would be little action taken. These accusations are double standards and a witch hunt.
Burkina Faso: At Least 35 Civilians Killed in Convoy Attack
According to the regional governor, at least 35 civilians were killed and 37 injured on Mon. in restive northern Burkina Faso when a convoy of vehicles struck an improvised explosive device (IED).
The army-escorted supply convoy was reportedly heading to the capital Ouagadougou when the vehicle was hit by the IED between the northern towns of Djibo and Bourzanga, reportedly killing mostly traders and students.
The incident unfolded after Burkina Faso's interim president, Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, spoke Sun. of "relative calm" in parts of the country while the government said it had launched "offensive actions" and entered into dialogue with various armed groups.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's a good sign that increasing cooperation is emerging between Burkina Faso and its West African neighbors to jointly combat the spread of terrorism in the region and enhance security. The problem of jihadism can only be solved on a multilateral level, and, if regional states put aside their disputes and act together, there's a real possibility of defeating jihadism.
Establishment-critical narrative
The tragic incident once again proves one thing above all Burkina Faso's military government hasn't succeeded in keeping its promise to eliminate the jihadist threat. The same is true in neighboring Mali, where a coup government also holds the reins. As long as the response of local governments is focused purely on counterterrorism operations without also addressing the economy and governance, security is unlikely to improve.
Cynical narrative
While the Ukraine war dominates the Western headlines, a catastrophe is unfolding in Africa that's barely noticed. The death of dozens of innocent people in Burkina Faso is just the latest indication of a continent in the grips of jihadist terror. And while France is accused of nurturing Sahel terrorism rather than countering it, Washington, which claims to be leading the world in the fight against terrorism, also seems to be abandoning the Sahel states.
Day 195 Roundup: Nuclear Plant Again Disconnected from Ukrainian Power Grid as IAEA Report Released
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant (ZNPP) was once again disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid on Mon. because of a fire caused by shelling, officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed. The agency said a back-up line "was deliberately disconnected in order to extinguish a fire," adding: "The line itself is not damaged, and it will be reconnected once the fire is extinguished."
It comes as the IAEA report published on Tues. following their investigation of the plant said the situation at ZNPP is "not sustainable," with the watchdog calling for a security zone around the plant. Russia, meanwhile, voiced "regret" that the report didn't directly blame Ukraine for the shelling of the plant. Both sides have exchanged blame.
Meanwhile, Russia's Gazprom and Germany's Siemens continue to trade accusations over disruptions to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Mon. said gas flows would not resume until Russian sanctions are lifted, Gazprom said on Tues. that the issue was due to Siemens' failure to carry out maintainence. Siemens responded that the repairs could be undertaken without gas flows being terminated.
Pro-establishment narrative
Experts have made it clear – the situation at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant presents the risk of another Chernobyl. Nuclear disaster has, miraculously, been avoided so far, but continuing risks the safety and effectiveness of staff to control the reactors could have catastrophic consequences.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although Zaporizhzhia's cooling systems will be relatively vulnerable due to their contact with the outside world, the worst case scenario would only cause serious damage at a local level. Both Russia and Ukraine are over stating the risk of nuclear catastrophe to galvanize domestic support for the invasion and play upon Western fears to incentivize providing military and public support respectively.
Nerd narrative
There is an 18% chance that there will be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DOJ Open to Trump Pick as Special Master
In a brief court filing Mon., the U.S. Dept of Justice (DOJ) said it's willing to accept Judge Raymond J. Dearie of the Federal District Court in Brooklyn, N.Y., one of the proposed candidates from former Pres. Trump's legal team, to act as the special master in the review of documents gathered from Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence by the FBI in August.
Previously, the DOJ and Trump's team, each proposed two candidates to serve as an independent arbiter known as a special master. While the DOJ proposed retired judges, Barbara Jones and Thomas Griffith, Trump's team proposed Florida's former Deputy Attorney General Paul Huck along with Dearie, who formerly served on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.
FBI agents seized roughly 11K documents from Trump's residence last month, around 100 of which contained classification markings.
Pro-Trump narrative
The judge's decision to approve Trump's lawyers' request for a 'special master' is absolutely the right move considering the unprecedented nature of the FBI's search of a former president's home. This marks a win for Trump, who is the innocent target of an illegitimate political investigation.
Left narrative
The Trump-appointed judge's biased ruling to permit a 'special master' will not stop the investigation. Cannon cited weak arguments in her decision, which likely means that the DOJ's appeal holds weight. This bump in the road won't impede the investigation's findings.
Nerd narrative
There's a 26% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chile: Voters Reject New Constitution In Referendum
On Sun., Chilean voters overwhelmingly rejected a 388-article progressive proposal to replace the Gen. Pinochet-era constitution, marking a setback for Chile's newly-elected Pres. Gabriel Borić.
According to the Chile Electoral Service, nearly 62% of voters opposed the new document, which failed to gather support even in the metropolitan area of the capital Santiago – a Borić stronghold in the 2021 presidential election.
The proposed overhaul would've turned one of the most conservative countries in Latin America into one of the world's most progressive societies by legalizing abortion, adopting universal healthcare, and instating more than 100 constitutional rights – including for nature and animals.
Left narrative
Chileans had the chance to get rid of Pinochet's neoliberal constitution but the "Rechazo" camp contaminated this referendum with a disinformation campaign. For now, the country has been unable to advance in social issues and increase environmental protection. But as the democratic process still stands, there's still hope for reform.
Right narrative
This proposal was doomed to be rejected as the constitutional convention – which was disproportionately left-leaning due to low turnout in the original advisory referendum – failed to represent Chile's average voter and alienated the center-right camp. The text would've instated unconventional and nonsensical rights.