UN Envoy: Haiti Faces Humanitarian Catastrophe
Addressing the UN Security Council on Monday, Haiti's UN envoy warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe" amid severe gang violence and an economic and political crisis that has reportedly taken the island nation to "new levels of desparation."
This comes as weeks of violent protests in Haiti continue to escalate after interim PM Ariel Henry announced an end to government fuel subsidies on September 11, which prompted a surge in gasoline and diesel prices.
Pro-establishment narrative
The current chaos and misery in Haiti make one thing clear The island nation is not in a position to help itself. Therefore, in addition to military intervention to establish order, there's now an urgent need for economic intervention — organized in the form of a "shared governance." Only with the help of the international community is there any hope that the Caribbean island will get back on its feet.
Establishment-critical narrative
While there's certainly an urgent need for international aid, it's time for a different approach in Haiti. In the past, so-called "international assistance" included harmful Global North policies that prioritized foreign interests over Haiti's long-term development and conditional loans that trapped the island nation in a cycle of unjust debt and aid dependence. The only way to truly help this country is to focus on policies that fortify its self-determination and self-sufficiency.
Japan Holds State Funeral for Abe
On Tuesday, Japan honored former PM Shinzo Abe in a controversial state funeral at the Nippon Budokan Arena in Tokyo, with ceremonial rites involving a video tribute, honor guard, gun salute, and musical performances.
The service began at 2 pm and was attended by some 4K people, including high-profile guests such as Australian PM Anthony Albanese, Indian PM Narendra Modi, Japan's Crown Prince Akishino, and US Vice President Harris.
Establishment-critical narrative
Opting to hold a state funeral was an unjustified decision from PM Kishida without democratic discussion and ignoring the four-decades-old joint funeral system for former prime ministers. This ceremony will deepens public division and endorses the party's highly-disturbing ties with the Unification Church.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though PM Kishida may not have followed the standard process, he was right to honor Shinzo Abe with a state funeral. Abe had his flaws, but he's undeniably among Japan's greatest leaders after reviving the country's economy and turning it into a key international player. Detractors who failed to defeat him in life are now embarrassing Japan to score political points after his death.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the LDP will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by November 2043, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Super Typhoon Noru Sweeps Across Philippines
Super Typhoon Noru (known locally as "Karding") impacted the Philippines on Sunday and Monday - affecting over 122K people, damaging 655 houses, and destroying farmlands and infrastructure. The storm underwent one of the most rapid intensifications in the history of the Pacific basin before landfall.
At least six people have died, including five rescuers operating in floodwaters. Gov. Daniel Fernando of the Bulacan province hailed the responders as "living heroes who were helping save the lives of our countrymen amid this calamity."
Narrative A
The rapid intensification of this super typhoon was extraordinary. The potential role of climate change on these turbo-charged storms has particular relevance for the Philippines. Battling about 20 named storms each year, this Asia-Pacific nation is struggling to protect its communities in a warming world.
Narrative B
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, these tragedies are usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have little to nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between any specific storm and climate change.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance that if a global catastrophe occurs it will be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
NASA: Asteroid Deflection Mission Successful
On Tuesday, NASA announced that its test to deflect the asteroid Dimorphos two weeks ago succeeded beyond expectations - changing the asteroid's orbital path around a larger asteroid, Didymos, by 32 minutes. NASA official Lori Glaze stated, "For the first time ever, humanity has changed the orbit of a planetary body," and, "we are capable of deflecting an asteroid."
On Sept. 26, NASA's spacecraft collided with Dimorphos at 14K mph in a mission known as DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test). The intent was to see if a near-Earth asteroid could be successfully deflected; a change in the trajectory of 10 minutes would have been considered a success.
Narrative A
While this mission may seem aimed at combating a far-fetched hazard, defending the planet from asteroids is incredibly important. Investing in planetary defense missions like DART brings us closer to preventing catastrophic events that have changed the course of life on Earth many times in the past.
Narrative B
If NASA is going to invest taxpayer funds into a low-probability, a high-impact threat like deflecting asteroids, a good offense is better than a strong defense. This means developing an aggressive early warning system and even being able to pulverize potential intruders. Asteroid defense is an expensive undertaking, so let's get it right.
Day 216 Roundup: Last Day of Referenda Voting; Suspicious Leaks Discovered from Nord Stream Pipelines
Voting in Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine was set to conclude on Tuesday, as Western governments continue to dismiss the referenda on annexation as a sham. Some reports have suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce the annexation of the areas, which account for 15% of Ukraine's total territory, on Friday.
The UK announced 92 new sanctions on Tuesday in response to Russia’s plebiscites. The package of penalties targets those behind the voting - including some officials installed during Russian occupation - as well as businessmen and board members.
Anti-Russia narrative
The referenda being held in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine are a brazen exercise in propaganda. Russia has no right to essentially annex any Ukrainian territory, and these votes are completely illegitimate. Thankfully, the results will have no impact on the ground or on Ukraine's resolve.
Pro-Russia narrative
It has always been the key priority - for the whole of Russian society - to liberate the people in oppressed territories in Ukraine. These transparent and democratic referendums will likely soon result in the reunification of the DPR and other areas with Russia.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chess Champion Carlsen Accuses Rival Niemann of Cheating
On Monday, Norwegian world chess champion Magnus Carlsen publicly accused American Hans Niemann of cheating, marking the first time he explicitly alleged any wrongdoing by the 19-year-old. He questioned Niemann's "unusual" rise over the past year and his "suspicious" mannerisms.
The scandal began earlier this month after Carlsen lost to Niemann at the Sinquefield Cup, ending a 53-game unbeaten streak. After quitting the tournament, Carlsen made vague accusations that he believes "cheating in chess is a big deal" and should be "dealt with seriously."
Narrative A
While Niemann has a checkered past, the idea that he's been able to cheat in the highly-scrutinized world of professional chess is far-fetched. With every player being screened and every game being supervised, no one has found evidence of cheating. It seems that Carlsen is simply upset that he's now lost to the year-old multiple times.
Narrative B
With Niemann's history of cheating, coupled with accusations against him from the world No. 1, it's time the International Chess Federation investigate the matter and finally put it to rest. Whether it finds Niemann guilty or not, his admitted history of cheating should put him under the microscope until the investigation is over.
Nerd narrative
There's an 84% chance that if Magnus Carlsen competes in the 2023 World Chess Championship, he will win the title, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Oath Keepers' Sedition Trial Begins
The seditious conspiracy trial of Stewart Rhodes, founder of the right-wing Oath Keepers militia, began on Tuesday in what's described as the US Dept. of Justice's highest-profile case related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.
Rhodes and his co-defendants — Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, Jessica Watkins, and Thomas Caldwell — are accused of plotting to obstruct Congress' certification of the 2020 election and coordinating the riot. If convicted, they could face up to 20 years in prison.
Democratic narrative
After its thorough investigation into the role played by the Oath Keepers on Jan. 6, the federal government is now set to show the world how far these extremists went to prevent Biden's inauguration and keep Trump in office. Federal prosecutors have collected tremendous amounts of evidence, from subpoenas and surveillance footage, that will prove these weren't protesters but violent insurgents attempting to conduct a military-style coup.
Republican narrative
Beyond the obvious political nature of these Jan. 6 indictments, what's most troubling about the Dept. of Justice is its refusal to allow any cross-examinations by the defense that could potentially detail the role played by FBI informants on the day of the riot. This is a clear denial of both the defendants' rights and the duties of their attorneys to present the best case possible to the jury.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 20 people will be charged in 2022 by the US Dept. of Justice with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol riots, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Over Half of US Schools Face Staff Shortages
According to a new survey by the National Center for Education Statistics, more than half (53%) of US school principals say they were short-staffed at the beginning of this school year. The Education Dept. published the survey results on Tuesday as part of an investigation into the nationwide issue.
Of those experiencing shortages, the majority reported struggling with unfilled support staff, teaching, and other positions since the start of the COVID pandemic. About 20% of principals said their schools were understaffed before COVID.
Democratic narrative
The Biden administration is working hard to tackle a growing crisis caused by poor wages and untenable conditions for those taking on some of the most crucial roles. Biden is partnering with major job search companies to proactively tackle these shortages and protect the future of American children.
Republican narrative
There are staff shortages in schools, but not for the reasons you'd think. This isn't an issue of working conditions, but rather a reflection of the current strong employee market. Schools are competing for teachers, just like all sectors are competing for employees. Thankfully, many people are still entering teaching to fulfill a vocation.
Report: Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness to Cost $400B
On Monday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced it estimates Biden’s plan to forgive significant amounts of student loan debt will cost around $400B over the next 30 years, and the extension of the student-loan repayment pause could add $20B to that total.
The plan cancels $10k in federal loan debt for those making less than $125k per year, and forgives $20k for those who have received a Pell Grant for low-income families.
Republican narrative
This latest report bolsters the concerns surrounding Biden's student loan forgiveness program, which is going to crush the economy and intensify inflationary pressure. Biden isn't canceling student debt, he's simply shifting it onto the shoulders of American taxpayers. Legislators at the federal and state level must do what they can to block this policy decision.
Democratic narrative
This report is an estimate and should be taken with a grain of salt. Even the CBO admits its analysis is “highly uncertain” because it doesn’t take into account the number of people who will repay their debt after some of their loans are forgiven, and it also assumes that 65% of borrowers who qualified for a Pell Grant received one. Student debt relief is still vital to strengthening the middle class.
Congress Proposes Bill to Avoid Government Shutdown
Top members of the US Congress have unveiled a short-term spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown. The funding extension is likely to pass by Friday at midnight when current funds expire, but the process may come down to the wire.
The bill would fund the government through Dec. 16, allowing negotiators time to agree on a spending package for the 2023 fiscal year. A vote to begin the debate process Tuesday is seen as a crucial referendum on Senator Joe Manchin’s (R-W.Va.) proposal on oil and gas permitting.
Pro-establishment narrative
Government shutdowns are disruptive and hurt the very people lawmakers are working to protect. Neither party wants a shutdown - especially ahead of the November elections - and this short-term spending bill will ultimately show how Congress will come to a solution.
Establishment-critical narrative
As much as lawmakers hope to avoid a government shutdown, it might be unavoidable. Many GOP lawmakers refuse to vote for Manchin's proposals, and progressives are joining an alliance of what Manchin calls "strange bedfellows." There's no guarantee that the institution of Congress will keep the federal government funded.