04 October 2022

Daily Newsletter

Pääbo's Evolution Research Wins Nobel Prize for Medicine

Photo: snopes

The Facts

  • Swedish geneticist Svante Pääbo on Monday was named the winner of the Nobel Prize in medicine for his work sequencing the first Neanderthal genome to reveal that Homo sapiens interbred with Neanderthals.

  • Pääbo, whose work was first made public in 2010, has emerged as a leader in extracting, sequencing, and analyzing ancient DNA from Neanderthal bones. His research has proven that current humans share 1-4% of their DNA with Neanderthals.


The Spin

Narrative A

It’s great that the Nobel committee is willing to expand its reach beyond the traditional categories of medicine, physiology, and chemistry to award a distinguished researcher like Pääbo this award. His work directly provides a window into understanding questions of health and disease by shedding light on the deep history of human ancestry.

Narrative B

Granted, Pääbo's research is fascinating and there is even some application to our struggle to understand COVID. However, the COVID pandemic is the health crisis of our time - without the mRNA vaccines, who knows how much more death and illness there would be right now? Awarding the prize to those who have helped to address death and suffering for millions is long overdue.

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Day 223 Roundup: Ukraine Launches Attacks on Luhansk; Russian Lawmakers Ratify Annexation of Four Regions

Photo: nytimes

The Facts

  • Following vast advances in the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces have neared the administrative border of Luhansk – one of four territories annexed by Russia on Tuesday – and launched a number of attacks on the region in the last 24 hrs, according to the exiled head of the military administration for the region, Serhiy Haidai.

  • In contrast, Andrei Marochko, a military official from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), claimed Ukrainian forces had attempted to cross the administrative border but were "destroyed" by pro-Russian forces that pushed them back to their previously held positions. The claim couldn't be independently confirmed.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Ukrainian forces advancing through Kharkiv into the Luhansk region are destroying Russia's most elite and valuable troops, all while the Kremlin continues struggling to train and equip new personnel effectively. The gains from this counter-offensive could mark a turning point in favor of Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces are holding the line against Ukrainian counterattacks, coming at an exceptionally high cost to manpower and military equipment for Ukraine's army. These losses are not sustainable, and Russia will continue to secure newly annexed regions and defend its populations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated in Ukraine before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Australia Targets "Zero-Extinction" Plan to Save Endangered Species

The Facts

  • On Tuesday, Australia's environmental authorities announced an ambitious "zero-extinction" plan to provide protection and restoration of the country's endangered species and natural places over the next ten years.

  • Despite being one of the world's wealthiest nations, Australia received a poor grade on its protection of animal species. Wildlife habitats have reportedly declined because of events like the Black Summer bushfires in 2019-2020, which saw around 3B animals killed, injured, or displaced.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

While it's about time Australia joins other developed nations in their conservation efforts, this new plan is lacking. It boasts an impressive zero-extinction goal but provides little direction on how to get there and dismally overlooks many of Australia's more than 1.9K endangered species. It remains to be seen what this plan will actually achieve.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is promising news for the conservation and preservation community. While, admittedly, this only scratches the surface, the plan is a great first step in addressing Australia's endangered species and will pave the way to greater solutions.

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Trump Sues CNN for Defamation, Seeks $475M

The Facts

  • On Monday, former US Pres. Donald Trump sued CNN, alleging that the news network defamed him to hinder any future political campaigns he may pursue. CNN didn't provide immediate comment.

  • In the 29-page complaint, Trump's lawyers said CNN highlighted "any negative information about the Plaintiff" while "ignoring all positive information about him," adding that the news outlet tried to "use its massive influence – purportedly as a 'trusted' news source – to defame the Plaintiff in the minds of its viewers and readers."


The Spin

Left narrative

Not only will it be virtually impossible to prove defamation in court, but this lawsuit does little other than remind us of all the reasons why political commentators compare Trump to other authoritarian leaders. It has little chance of progressing past a motion to dismiss and is primarily a rant-filled political manifesto.

Pro-Trump narrative

After having asked CNN to make retractions regarding their false reporting - to which they responded by only ramping up their guerilla "journalism" tactics - Trump had no other choice than to go to court. This is just the beginning of the lawsuits against media organizations that covered Trump unfairly during his campaigns and as President, and he has every right to bring his concerns into the legal arena.

Nerd narrative

There's an 83% chance that Donald Trump will run for the office of President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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North Korea Fires More Missiles, Second Launch in Three Days

The Facts

  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles over the Sea of Japan on Thursday, hours after the US abruptly redeployed its aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to waters off the Korean peninsula and performed exercises with South Korea. It was North Korea's sixth launch in less than two weeks and its second in three days.

  • South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said North Korea launched the missiles from the vicinity of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. According to the Japanese defense ministry, the missiles traveled at low altitudes to better evade missile defenses. The first missile flew 350 km (215 miles), and the second 900 km (500 miles). Both landed in the Pacific Ocean.


The Spin

Republican narrative

You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China. How does Kim know the US won't also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.

Democratic narrative

Kim Jong-un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any of his grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.

Nerd narrative

There is a 33% chance that, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by 2050, there will be at least one resulting fatality in North Korea, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: 'Systemic' Abuse of Players in Women's Soccer

Photo: nytimes

The Facts

  • Following an independent investigation by former US Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, a report released Monday found a list of failures by the National Women's Soccer League (NWSL) related to allegations of abuse by coaches.

  • The report - released a year after players protested multiple public allegations against coaches - found that owners, executives, and coaches within the NWSL and the US Soccer Federation failed to act on years of reported verbal, emotional, and sexual abuse.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

What's devastatingly ironic about this report, and the revelations of the past year, is that those in charge of the NWSL claimed to prioritize the well-being of female athletes, but their actions spoke differently. Immense shame should be felt not only by abusive coaches but by those in power who could've stepped in but chose to sweep rampant abuse under the rug.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though misconduct could and should have been addressed much earlier, the league has now accepted its hidden culture of abuse. The league will take significant actions to end the vicious cycle that so many women endured. The recommendations outlined in Yates' report will help the NWSL take the positive steps necessary to clean up its institution.

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Power Back on in Bangladesh After Grid Failure

The Facts

  • Power has been restored across Bangladesh following the failure of the national power grid on Tuesday. The failure - which is still under investigation - plunged most of the country into darkness for nearly seven hours.

  • The outage caused shopping malls and markets to close early or operate by candlelight. Many residents gathered at fuel stations where they could access diesel to run generators.


The Spin

Narrative A

Patience is needed as Bangladesh rides the global energy disruptions catalyzed by the Russia-Ukraine war. The downstream effects impact developing nations like Bangladesh especially hard. Nonetheless, Dhaka is pressing ahead with purchasing energy fields and planning to deliver power to the nation's rural regions. These efforts will take some time under challenging global conditions - especially as Dhaka tries to maintain economic growth.

Narrative B

There is certainly global energy stress, like the Ukraine War, but Bangladesh has long lagged in developing a diversified energy sector, including decreasing reliance on fossil fuels and imports. Dhaka needs to invest in solar power and explore domestic gas reserves if it hopes to be more resilient to global energy shocks and stressors.

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Philippines: Radio Broadcaster 'Percy Lapid' Murdered

Photo: Rappler

The Facts

  • Philippine authorities confirmed on Tuesday that journalist and radio host Percival Mabasa, known as "Percy Lapid," was killed on Monday night during an ambush outside his gated community in Las Piñas, Metro Manila.

  • According to local police, two motorcycle-riding gunmen approached Mabasa's car and shot him twice in the head. An investigation is underway to identify and locate the attackers.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This brazen killing demonstrates how dangerous it is to be a journalist in the Philippines, and that press freedom remains under attack nationwide. Authorities must be diligent and conduct an impartial investigation of this tragic crime, tackling the culture of impunity that has been encouraging such attacks.

Pro-establishment narrative

Philippine Pres. Marcos Jr. has personally ordered authorities to investigate the unacceptable murder of Percy Lapid, indicating his unwavering commitment to ensuring the security of journalists. The Presidential Task Force on Media Security has been working together with local police to release a thorough investigation as soon as possible. The government is committed to justice.

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Musk Faces Twitter Backlash Over Ukraine Plan

The Facts

  • On Monday, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sparked controversy when he tweeted his idea for a potential Russia-Ukraine peace plan. This included a Twitter poll on whether the plan would help end the fighting.

  • Musk's tweet called for redoing "elections in annexed regions under UN supervision,” with Russia leaving “if that is the will of the people.” He also suggested that Crimea should be formally part of Russia, with an ensured water supply, and Ukraine should remain “neutral."


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine, yet Musk thinks the best thing to do is to negotiate peace on Moscow's terms. He may have shown his support for Ukraine in the past, but statements like this only hurt the Ukrainian cause, which calls for the liberation of their entire sovereign nation. It's quite telling that the Kremlin reacted so positively to Musk's words.

Pro-Russia narrative

It's a testament to the power of Western and Ukrainian propaganda that when someone suggests peace is the best outcome, they're mercilessly attacked by a mob of war-hungry Twitter "keyboard warriors." Most of those attacking Musk were undoubtedly pro-Ukrainian bot accounts with the sole purpose of subverting the discourse regarding the situation in Ukraine. Peace and compromise shouldn't be controversial.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Elon Musk Proposes Buying Twitter at Original Price

The Facts

  • Amid the ongoing legal battle between Elon Musk and Twitter over his attempt to back out of the agreement to purchase the platform, the billionaire reportedly offered to buy Twitter for his original price of $54.20 per share on Monday.

  • Musk had initially agreed to take over the social media company in April but backed out over allegations that Twitter misrepresented the number of fake accounts on its platform. Twitter subsequently sued Musk, accusing him of violating his agreement. In response, the billionaire filed a countersuit.


The Spin

Narrative A

This latest development — which comes just two weeks before Twitter's lawsuit was scheduled to go to trial — is a blatant attempt to save face. Musk would likely lose his legal fight and be forced to finalize the original purchase price anyway, with potential penalties. After months of attacking Twitter in court and online, the billionaire has finally accepted that he must follow through with his agreement.

Narrative B

First, Musk forced a billion-dollar company — that had no intention of selling — to accept his offer. Then, he tried to back out, leading to bombshell revelations regarding the inner workings of Twitter, before finally putting his offer back on the table. Though it's hard to predict anything related to this rollercoaster of a story, Musk may have been playing 4D chess this entire time.

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