Hong Kong Won't Act on Sanctioned Russian Superyacht
On Tuesday, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee announced that the city isn't going to seize the superyacht of a Russian businessman who is under Western sanctions. According to Lee, Hong Kong is accountable only to UN sanctions, not "unilateral" ones imposed by "individual jurisdictions."
Alexei Mordashov's more than $500M yacht, Nord, arrived in Hong Kong last week. Mordashov is one of Russia's wealthiest men and is believed to have close ties to Putin. The US, UK, and EU sanctioned the steel billionaire after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year.
Anti-China narrative
Hong Kong's decision to provide a safe haven for individuals evading sanctions from multiple jurisdictions has consequences. Its reputation as a financial center requires adherence and compliance with international standards, and its refusal to abide by those rules further calls into question the transparency of its business environment.
Pro-China narrative
The comments by the US State Department are misleading and nothing more than a smear campaign against Hong Kong’s business operations. The city — which abides by UN sanctions as required — has no legal obligation or authority to impose Western sanctions. Over the years, Hong Kong has maintained a free, open, law-based business climate and will continue to do so.
Day 230 Roundup: US, Germany Promise Advanced Missile Defense Systems After Wave of Russian Attacks
The US and Germany have vowed to urgently deliver advanced missile defense systems to Ukraine following a wave of Russian attacks across the country on Monday. While the US didn't publicly specify which systems would be sent, Germany announced it would deliver four IRIS-T SLM systems – reportedly capable of defending against missiles at a range of up to 25 miles (40 km).
Ukrainian officials said a total of 19 people were killed and 105 were injured in Monday's attacks, which spanned across 12 regions and the city of Kyiv. They added that as many as 301 settlements remain without electricity. The bombings were widely condemned by officials from Ukraine, Europe, the US, and elsewhere.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia's missile strikes across Ukraine are a cynical response to the attack on the Crimean Bridge; they served little to no military value but were intended to strike fear into Ukraine’s leadership and its civilian population.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's strikes served a clear purpose - they met terrorist attacks on Russian territory with a firm and decisive response. If this unflinching message goes unheard, and more terrorist acts continue, only the Ukrainian leadership will be responsible for the consequences.
Nerd narrative
There's a 42% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New Zealand Proposes 'Farm Animal Tax'
On Tuesday, New Zealand's government proposed taxing greenhouse gases that farm animals make from bodily functions, including belching, in what would be a world first in tackling climate change.
The government's proposed plan for agricultural emissions pricing is set to be introduced in 2025. New Zealand has approximately 10M cattle and 26M sheep, with agriculture producing nearly half of the country's total greenhouse gas emissions.
Pro-establishment narrative
The decision is a revolutionary move. Something has to be done to reduce harmful emissions in New Zealand, as methane is a dangerous greenhouse gas. As the global trendsetter, this decision could potentially give the country a competitive edge globally while also meeting greenhouse targets.
Establishment-critical narrative
The government's greenhouse gas reduction plan will rip the guts out of small-town New Zealand. Despite farmers' best efforts, this will inevitably lead to closures that will reduce small-town businesses supported by agriculture in a manner that will only be detrimental to the country. This is not a good move for the agricultural sector or the working class.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance that if a global catastrophe occurs it will be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Banks Cut Overall Donations, Boost Democrats' Share
According to a Reuters analysis of data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, commercial banks have greatly reduced financial donations to federal candidates for this election cycle, but have increased their proportion to Democrats. With less than a month until the midterms, commercial banks' political action committees (PACs) have given about $7.4M to federal candidates, 43% down from 2020 and 39% down from the average in the previous decade.
Though there has been a drop in total funding by banks, the proportion of donations given to Democrats has risen to 40%, the highest since the 2010 election cycle.
Republican narrative
While rich, elitist politicians and "woke" bankers prioritize the Jan. 6 committee hearings and new diversity, equity, and inclusion agendas, they've blatantly neglected the issues that working-class Americans - of all backgrounds - actually care about, like inflation and a deteriorating public education system. Democrats are no longer the party of the working class and they'll face that reality in November.
Democratic narrative
The corporate world is rapidly shifting from its old form of white, conservative men toward a progressive model of social, financial, and environmental equity. Democrats are on the right side of history, so it's no surprise that banks are now choosing to support the forward-thinking party.
Cynical narrative
There's too much money flushed into American politics, especially during these midterms. It's dangerous when political consultants and PACs spend millions of dollars to boost their cynical Machiavellian interests - whether it's banks looking out for their industry or Democrats boosting "beatable" far-right candidates. This poisons the well Americans must drink from as a democracy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 41% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel, Lebanon Sign 'Historic Agreement' on Maritime Borders
Ending a long-running maritime border dispute, Israel and Lebanon officially signed a US-brokered agreement on Thursday, opening up the possibility for both countries to conduct offshore energy exploration.
Given the tensions between the two countries, there was no joint signing ceremony. Lebanese Pres. Michel Aoun signed an approval letter — witnessed by the US official who liaised the deal — while Israeli PM Yair Lapid signed separately in Jerusalem.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is truly a win for both sides, as Israel will be protecting its border security, and Lebanon will be able to grow its natural gas production at a time of economic desperation. What's most extraordinary about the US-brokered deal — which attests to the US's strong relationship with Israel — is that both countries will be able to pursue their interests without violence between Israel and Hezbollah.
Establishment-critical narrative
This deal is not necessarily a win-win for both countries, as no one knows yet whether the fields on Lebanon's side of the border contain commercially viable sources of oil. Even if Lebanon does eventually strike oil, it will take years of political and economic reform for the country to profit, which will help no one during the current energy crisis.
India: Kashmiri Separatist Leader Dies In Custody
Altaf Ahmad Shah, a prominent member of Kashmir's separatist group Hurriyat, died on Monday night at the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS), according to his family. The cause of his death hasn't yet been disclosed.
Shah had been incarcerated in connection to an alleged "terror-funding case" for the past five years, and lodged in New Delhi's Tihar prison. Last month, he was diagnosed with cancer and transferred to Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia (RML) hospital.
Establishment-critical narrative
Altaf Shah devoted his life for the sacred cause of freedom and deserves to be remembered as a hero of the Kashmiri people. His custodial killing exposes that every other freedom activist jailed in India is under threat as Modi's fascist regime seeks to eliminate them and won't comply with its legal duty to protect their lives.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though the death of a human being is always sad news and those grieving the loss of a loved one must be respected , it's important to stick to the truth. Altaf Shah died in custody because he was facing a trial on charges of funding terror activities, and Indian authorities diligently granted him medical treatment for cancer and several other diseases.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be at least 65.8 in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan Clash in Ohio Senate Debate
J.D. Vance, a Republican competing for a spot in the Ohio Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, traded blows with his Democratic rival Tim Ryan in a controversial hour-long debate on Monday.
The pair argued over Ryan's portrayal of Vance as a "MAGA extremist," issues around foreign policy, and Vance's accusation that Ryan was a "career politician." However, they reached a consensus in agreeing that local police departments need to employ more officers.
Republican narrative
Ryan is blatantly misrepresenting himself and his politics. Despite a constructed and rhetorical effort to appeal to the Trump voters and supporters of the Ohio electorate, he has contradicted himself by saying he wants to "kill and confront" the MAGA movement. He isn't a bipartisan unifier but a career politician peddling a false narrative about the "extremism" of policies that are largely supported in the area he seeks to represent.
Democratic narrative
Monday's debate saw Vance fail to take accountability for the consequences of his own political agenda and fuel division by vilifying moderate Democratic policy. Rather than recognize that the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade — one of the largest governmental overreaches in living memory — has resulted in a widespread loss of bodily autonomy and increased risk for women, he blamed immigration. Ryan is right Ohioans are tired of this empty rhetoric and want to return to a more moderate policy.
Cynical narrative
Both Democrats and Republicans are playing politics in an attempt to secure reelection. A reductive and oversimplified "us vs. them" mentality has come to dominate how Americans view themselves and each other. This is an unsustainable state of affairs that can only undermine democracy and, eventually, result in a social breakdown. The US must work to look beyond the short-termism incentivized by western democratic models to find common superordinate goals to depolarize politics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that J.D. Vance will win the 2022 US Senate election in Ohio, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tulsi Gabbard Leaves Democratic Party
On Tuesday, former Hawaiian Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard announced she was leaving the Democratic Party in a video that served as the first episode of her “The Tulsi Gabbard Show” podcast. She didn't announce a new party affiliation.
Gabbard, who was the first American Samoan and first practicing Hindu to serve in Congress, accused the Democrats of being “under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoking anti-white racism, who actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms enshrined in our Constitution.”
Republican narrative
Good for Gabbard, leaving the Democrats and exposing their dangerous policies along the way. Hopefully, more will follow her lead to make sure Democrats don’t realize their goals and turn the US into something it should never be - a nation run by "woke," cowardly, and militaristic elites.
Democratic narrative
This is the most anticlimactic "October surprise" possible. For nearly a decade, Gabbard’s politics have run counter to what the Democratic Party stands for. She’s supported anti-trans and anti-LGBTQ+ legislation and cozied up to the far-right. She can keep enjoying the limelight of Tucker Carlson Tonight and Russian media outlets - Democrats moved on long ago.
Putin Meets With UAE President
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin hailed his country's relationship with the United Arab Emirates during a meeting with Pres. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) on Tuesday, calling it "an important factor of stability" in the region and the world.
During his reception in St. Petersburg, MBZ highlighted the importance of finding political solutions to crises, adding a call to resolve the Ukraine crisis through dialogue, negotiation, and diplomacy.
Pro-establishment narrative
Since Putin first invaded Ukraine, the US and EU have warned the UAE about the consequences of siding with Russia. With Russian oligarchs fleeing to do business in the UAE to avoid Western sanctions, the inevitable consequences for MBZ will be his country ultimately ending up on the same blacklist as Putin's.
Establishment-critical narrative
Dialogue and diplomatic mechanisms are the only viable route to international peace and security. By remaining neutral, the UAE is in a unique position to potentially negotiate an end to the war with Russia. Luckily, MBZ remains unfazed by the political pressure placed on it by the US and other Western nations since the war began.
Report: Microbial Life Possible On Ancient Mars
On Monday, French scientists reported that ancient Mars may have had an environment conducive for housing an underground world with microscopic organisms. The scientists concluded that if they existed, the organisms would have been responsible for their own demise by altering the atmosphere and triggering a Martian Ice Age.
US and French scientists collaborated using climate models to explore the habitability of Mars during the Noachian, a geological period on the red planet 4.1B - 3.7B years ago when the planet may have had water on the surface.
Narrative A
Despite the bleak finding that life itself could be behind its own destruction, this research is exciting and offers a promising breakthrough in the study of life outside of earth Not only does this new information suggest that habitable environments exist within our solar system, but also into the broader galaxy and universe. This will pave the way for future missions that may change our understanding of space.
Narrative B
While the idea of life on Mars is fascinating, we must be careful when researching and exploring. Sending expeditions and rovers to Mars could have unintended consequences. History has proven that every time humans explore new places they take diseases with them and bring new diseases back.