10 October 2022

Daily Newsletter

NYC Mayor Declares State of Emergency Over Migrant Arrivals

The Facts

  • New York City Mayor Eric Adams has declared a state of emergency regarding an influx of migrants being bussed to the city from Texas, saying the arrival of 17k migrants since April is creating a "humanitarian crisis."

  • In his public statement on Friday, the mayor said the crisis "started with violence and instability in South America and is being accelerated by American political dynamics," having previously criticized Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for sending the immigrants.


The Spin

Republican narrative

New York has long prided itself on being a sanctuary city, so now it's time for Mayor Adams and his Democratic colleagues to live up to their self-proclaimed status. The Democratic mayor of El Paso has also bussed migrants to New York because even he knows that if the Democrats don't feel the pressure that border towns experience every day, they'll never work to fix our immigration problems.

Democratic narrative

The political stunts of politicians like Greg Abbott are eerily similar to the reverse freedom rides of the segregated south. In the 1960s, the racists bussed Black people to northern cities, and now they're bussing Hispanic asylum seekers. These are two sides of the same coin, and Eric Adams is right to call it out.

See sources

Uvalde School Shooting: Police Force Suspended

Photo: nbc

The Facts

  • The school district in Uvalde, Texas, has indefinitely suspended its entire police force in the aftermath of the school shooting at Robb Elementary School on May 24.

  • The statement, released on Friday by the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District (CISD), said it had decided to "suspend all activities" of the district's police department "for a period of time" and has requested that the Texas Department of Public Safety provide "additional troopers for campus and extra-curricular activities."


The Spin

Narrative A

The abhorrent decision-making of police in Uvalde was an abject failure that allowed this tragedy to unfold. In its aftermath, it quickly became evident that this failure would be carried over through a lack of accountability and transparency, and it's time to bring this to an end The decision to suspend the police force is a step in the right direction to doing this.

Narrative B

While the police response to the school shooting was appalling, it shouldn't be allowed to overshadow the reality that this should never have happened in the first place. So-called gun rights alongside disturbingly easy access to semi-automatic weapons have gone too far and are a constant danger to American society.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that the Second Amendment of the US Constitution will be amended or repealed before 2025.

See sources

Day 229 Roundup: Reports of Casualties, Electricity and Water Outages as Blasts Rock Kyiv and Other Ukrainian Cities

The Facts

  • A barrage of Russian missiles hit Kyiv and a number of other Ukrainian cities including Lviv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Odesa on Monday morning – striking areas which have so far been largely unaffected by the seven-month war. Targets included thermal power plants in Kyiv, Lviv, and elsewhere in the country, leading to reports of widespread electricity and water outages.

  • While the number of civilian casualties remains unclear and is likely to rise, eight people were reported killed and 24 more were reported injured in Kyiv. Numbers for other cities were unavailable at this stage.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia has responded to the humiliating attack on the Crimean Bridge with total barbarity, by striking civilian infrastructure such as power grids, universities, and children's playgrounds. Putin is clearly frustrated by the destruction of a such a strategically and symbolically important piece of infrastructure as the bridge, and has reacted with rash brutality.

Pro-Russia narrative

Justifiably, Russian citizens expect that the terror attack on the civilian bridge between Russia and Crimea will be met with fierce response. The country's leaders owe it to the Russian people, and to the security of the nation itself, to target the terrorists responsible and hold the Kiev regime to account for the loss of innocent life in the Russian federation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

North Korea: Missile Launches Were Nuclear Attack Simulations

Photo: abc

The Facts

  • North Korea's state media reported on Monday that recent missile tests simulated the use of "tactical" nuclear weapons against potential South Korean and US targets to "check and improve" its military deterrence, in response to US-South Korea joint naval exercises in the region.

  • Pyongyang claims that the seven barrages of missiles recently launched were short-range weapons designed to carry tactical nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield, and that they successfully simulated hitting South Korea's military bases, ports, and airports.


The Spin

Republican narrative

You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China. How does Kim know the US won't also team up with South Korea to invade the North? Trump's relationship with and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.

Democratic narrative

Kim Jong-un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any of his grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US has threatened to nuke North Korea, which has the right to defend itself. The US should stop playing "GloboCop" and prioritize solving its domestic problems.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that there will be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Steele Dossier Source Heads to Trial

The Facts

  • The trial of Igor Danchenko, a US-based Russian lawyer charged with five counts of lying to the FBI during its investigation into alleged Trump-Russia collusion, is set to commence at the US District Court of Alexandria, Va. on Tuesday.

  • Danchenko - who provided key details for the "dossier" on former Pres. Trump to former British spy Christopher Steele - denied the charges and called for the judge to dismiss the case last week.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

When Durham's investigation began, Trump promised the probe would "reveal corruption at a level never seen before in our country." Instead, as the saga concludes with this limited trial, Danchenko will likely be proven innocent. After scrutiny by the courts, Durham's claims will remain unfounded. This Trump-promised bombshell will likely be a dud as November's elections approach.

Republican narrative

This trial will bring to light how Democratic operatives, conspiring with the FBI and the Justice Department, employed a dirty tricks campaign in an effort to illegally try to bring down Trump. These agencies need to be overhauled before Americans can trust them again.

Nerd narrative

There's an 83% chance that Donald J. Trump will run for the office of President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israel to Pay Family of Palestinian-American Who Died in Detention

The Facts

  • Israel's Defense Ministry announced on Sunday that it had reached a settlement to compensate the family of Omar Asaad, a Palestinian-American man who died in January this year after being detained by Israeli troops.

  • This marks a rare case of compensation paid to Palestinians, with Israeli authorities agreeing to pay about $141K to Asaad's family if they, in turn, agree to drop the lawsuit. His brother, however, denied the family had accepted any offer.


The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Omar Asaad was brutally murdered during an IDF operation as part of Israel's illegal occupation of the West Bank. His family will be compensated, but only because he was a US citizen and Washington pressured Israel. The truth is that human rights abuses like this one are violations of international law and daily occurrences in Israeli-occupied Palestine.

Pro-Israel narrative

The IDF soldiers involved in the death of Omar Asaad failed in their responsibility to care for those in their custody. However, although they should have provided Asaad with medical attention, it was ultimately Asaad's poor health that caused his death. Asaad's family is being rightfully compensated for this hardship, and Israeli authorities are responding appropriately to this tragedy.

See sources

Two Shot Outside of NY Gov. Candidate's Home

The Facts

  • Two men were shot on Sunday afternoon outside the Long Island home of Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican candidate for governor of New York. Zeldin's two daughters were home alone and, when they heard screaming and gunshots, reportedly hid and called the police.

  • The two 17-year-old boys, from Mastic and Mastic Beach NY, were taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries and are believed to have no connection to the Zeldin family, according to the Suffolk County Police Dept.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Crimes like these have affected countless New Yorkers in recent years thanks to the Democrats' soft-on-crime policies. The unchecked violence Zeldin has been warning about - just like Chicago - has literally reached his New York doorstep. This is a warning about the reality faced by so many innocent New Yorkers.

Democratic narrative

Lee Zeldin continues to campaign on fighting crime, but he has voted to loosen gun laws time and time again. Violent crime in New York - like what happened at his house - is often tied to guns, so why doesn't Zeldin vote for the common sense reforms that will take these weapons away from criminals? His policies are dangerous and extreme.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

NFL Agrees to Revise Concussion Protocols

Photo: cbs

The Facts

  • The NFL and NFL Players Association (NFLPA) have agreed to modify the league's concussion protocol following a joint investigation into the NFL's procedures. This follows the recent and high-profile injury to the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa.

  • On Saturday, both organizations released a joint statement on their findings, concluding that "the outcome, in this case, was not what was intended when the protocol was drafted." Both the NFL and NFLPA concurred to add the term "ataxia" to the mandatory so-called "no-go" symptoms.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

No one should be surprised that the revenue-focused NFL has continuously failed to protect players against serious head injuries. With a lot of lip service despite not delivering, it's clear that the NFL is all talk and will never take the real, appropriate, and necessary medical measures to reduce the growing number of players suffering from brain damage.

Pro-establishment narrative

The NFL and its players' union, the NFLPA, agreed in lockstep to revise concussion protocols in the aftermath of the scary Tagovailoa incident. Their collaboration involved a detailed investigation by both sides and the rapid update of the game day checklist. NFL players receive and deserve top-notch medical care. This shows the league and the union can work effectively to improve player safety.

Cynical narrative

This rule change is mainly symbolic and causes odd disruptions in play. There are better non-medical changes the NFL and NFLPA can make like expanding the active roster size and allowing two backup quarterbacks at all times. There's a high potential for this rule to be enforced haphazardly, which doesn't help the league, union, teams, or players in the end.

See sources

Thousands March in US Abortion Rallies

Photo: abc

The Facts

  • On Saturday, thousands of protesters marched in cities across the US in opposition to SCOTUS's overturning of Roe v. Wade, and to urge voters to turn out in support of Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.

  • A crowd of mostly women chanted, "we won't go back," while their banners called for a "feminist tsunami" in a demonstration in Washington, DC. A number of people wore green - associated with the pursuit of abortion rights - and others wore blue to symbolize the "blue wave" of democratic support they hope to prompt.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Until a few months ago Democratic support was catastrophic, but the injustice done by a majority-conservative Supreme Court has seen the electorate more enthusiastic than ever to support a left-wing legislative mandate. Abortion is constantly being catapulted back to the forefront in swing states, where voters know that the GOP cannot be trusted to protect the health and autonomy of women by defending reproductive rights.

Republican narrative

Rather than prioritize abortion, the Democrats would do better to focus on issues affecting working-class Americans, such as the state of the economy, in the run-up to the midterms, as even Bernie Sanders recognizes. While Biden is busy attempting to distract from a record of failed leadership and incompetent policy, the GOP is putting voters' concerns - like the rising cost of living and threat of crime - at the heart of their campaign.

See sources

Protests In Iran: Oil Workers Strike, Defy Crackdown

Photo: Iran Wire

The Facts

  • On Monday, dozens of workers of Iran's vital oil-and-gas industry went on strike, reportedly joining for the first time anti-government protests now in the fourth week. The semi-official Tasnim news agency, however, described the incident - including the slogan "death to the dictator" - as a salary dispute involving 700 workers.

  • Meanwhile, violence erupted in the Iranian Kurdish city of Sanandaj, where gunshots and blasts were heard. The government has so far failed to suppress nationwide protests led by young Iranians and triggered by the death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Amini's death, and the circumstances that resulted in the tragedy, have exposed how the Iranian regime treats its citizens and pushed the country's youth to its absolute limits. President Raisi has already fostered a volatile environment by failing to tackle the economic crisis and youth unemployment, and repression against women through the criminalization of "immodest dressing" has only amplified discontent. Iranians cannot blindly comply with these orders any longer.

Establishment-critical narrative

Iran's riots have nothing to do with the death of Amini but everything to do with the enemies of Iran exploiting the tragic event for the purpose of creating chaos in the country. This was simply the right excuse at the right time. However, Iranians can count on their government to remain firm in its opposition to meddling from Western hegemony and Israel's Zionist regime.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by November 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

'Sabotage' to Blame for German Rail Disruption

The Facts

  • A train communications system in Germany was sabotaged on Saturday, according to authorities, forcing passenger and cargo trains to halt for around three hours across the northwest of the country.

  • A security source said there are a few possible causes, ranging from the more common event of cable theft to a targeted attack, with Germany's Transport Minister saying he believed it was "targeted and malicious."


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Though no direct evidence has been uncovered so far, this attack comes as tensions between Russia and the West are escalating, and Putin is known to have already used infrastructure and energy warfare. After the Nord Stream pipeline was likely sabotaged, this could very well be Putin's next move.

Pro-Russia narrative

Infrastructure cyberattacks like these have occurred many times in recent years, many of which were at the hands of far-left groups, not the Russian government. Countries like Germany and the US are quick to blame Putin, however many of these terrorist attacks have proven beneficial to the West, not the other way around.

See sources

Sign up to our daily newsletter