03 November 2022

Daily Newsletter

US Woman Sentenced to 20 Years For Leading ISIS Battalion

The Facts

  • A Kansas woman who led an all-female ISIS battalion in Syria was sentenced to 20 years in prison and 25 years of supervised release on Tuesday, the maximum sentence allowed by law.

  • Allison Fluke-Ekren, 42, pleaded guilty to providing material support to a terrorist network earlier this year. She has also admitted to heading a battalion that taught around 100 women and girls to use automatic weapons and detonate grenades and suicide belts. Some of the girls were reportedly as young as 10.


The Spin

Narrative A

Fluke-Ekren was an ISIS empress who abused her children, committed terrorist acts abroad, and even planned attacks on US soil. The fact that she is being punished to the full extent of the law is a victory for justice.

Narrative B

While a win, too much focus on punishing one individual for their extremism and atrocities won't help Western nations with the pragmatic steps they need to take to protect themselves from further terrorism. Nations in Europe and America must mitigate radicalization at home by building more inclusive and well-integrated societies.

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US Midterms: Biden Says Democracy 'On the Ballot'

The Facts

  • With the US midterm elections around the corner, Pres. Biden delivered a speech on Wednesday warning of what he deems an "unprecedented threat" to American democracy.

  • Speaking at the Democratic National Committee in Washington, DC, Biden stated that several GOP candidates have signaled their intent to deny the Nov. 8 results if they lose.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Biden's speech — a painful regurgitation of his September prime-time address — is nothing more than an eleventh-hour plea ahead of his party's inevitable loss in the upcoming elections. Unable to abate voters' concerns regarding real issues that America faces, the president has resorted to his overused tactic of fearmongering — a divisive tool at a time when unity is needed.

Democratic narrative

The president's remarks, which come on the heels of the attack on Pelosi's husband, is a much-needed caution to an alarming number of GOP representatives who've signaled their intent not to accept the midterm's results if they lose. With the unabating shadow from the Jan. 6 attack ever-present, Biden is making it clear that another such insurrection won't be tolerated.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Democrats will hold at least 49 seats in the US Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Midterms: Corporate America Playing it Safe, Data Shows

The Facts

  • Corporate America appears to be playing it safe in the upcoming US midterms, with recent data showing that incumbents and sitting federal officeholders are raking in PAC money at a far faster clip than their challengers.

  • Federal Election Committee data provided by OpenSecrets shows that seven incumbents in the nation's 10 most competitive Senate contests — five Democrats and two Republicans — are significantly out-raising their challengers in terms of corporate PAC and trade association donations.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

These midterms come as one-third of the nation is struggling amid a cost of living crisis — now is not the time to worry about corporate America. Trump's 2017 tax cuts are on track to cost more than $2.2T over the next decade, and, all the while, Republicans are pledging to grow an already obscene Pentagon budget. The richest nation in the world should instead look to support the poor and low-income Americans in material and moral needs.

Republican narrative

Although Democrats might feel that their agenda is "supporting" Americans, in reality, their reckless policies are undermining corporate America and weakening the economy for working people. A timely ushering in of GOP economic policy through these midterms could help slow inflation and expand the US's energy independence.

Nerd narrative

There is an 85% chance that Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Day 253 Roundup: IAEA Says No Evidence of 'Dirty Bomb'; Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Again Disconnected From Grid

The Facts

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated on Thursday that no signs of undeclared nuclear activity have been found at three Ukrainian sites inspected at the request of Kyiv. The inspections came following accusations — without evidence — from Moscow that Ukraine plans on using a "dirty bomb" — a conventional bomb laced with radioactive material. Samples taken from the sites have been sent for further analysis.

  • This comes as the UN Security Council on Wednesday voted to reject a call from Russia to launch an official probe into allegations that Ukraine and the US are carrying out "military biological" activities in violation of international conventions. Only China voted in favor of the probe alongside Russia. The US, UK and France voted against, while all 10 non-permanent members of the council abstained.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's allegations of a "dirty bomb" are transparently false. The claims are a ploy being utilized by the Kremlin to justify a drastic escalation of the war.

Establishment-critical narrative

Russia has collected evidence to back up its claims that Ukraine is plotting a dirty bomb, which it is prepared to provide to Western countries. These allegations must be taken seriously.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Bank of England Warns of Longest Recession Ever

The Facts

  • While announcing another interest rate hike from 2.25% to 3% on Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) warned that the UK faces its worst recession since records began in the 1920s.

  • Treasury head Jeremy Hunt now faces calls to explain how homeowners should deal with the 0.75% increase, the highest single-rate increase since 1979, amid reported concerns that their mortgage payments could breach more than 40% of their gross salary.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Previous rate hikes haven’t improved the financial environment for buyers and savers, so the BOE’s claim that it’s raising rates to improve the situation rings hollow. With the price of goods outpacing peoples' pensions and savings accounts — and now these rate hikes making it nearly impossible to pay off home loans — it appears the BOE is intent on following bad policy with something worse.

Pro-establishment narrative

Rate hikes by the central bank in the UK, as in the US, are necessary and are slowly working to cool the economy. Prospective homebuyers may have to wait to buy a house in the short term, but it’s more important right now to tackle inflation with these rate raises.

See sources

Myanmar: Ex-Politician Sentenced to 173 Years

The Facts

  • A court in military-ruled Myanmar has handed a former politician for the deposed National League for Democracy (NLD) a 148-year prison sentence, meaning alongside previous convictions, Win Mint Hlaing will hypothetically spend a total of 173 years in prison.

  • The sentence is believed to be the longest given to any member of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi's former government and party after the military takeover in February 2021. Suu Kyi, arrested on the day of the coup, has already been sentenced to 26 years for several convictions.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The military regime has only continued to crack down on those who oppose it, attacking civilians and restricting fundamental human rights from anyone who attempts to challenge their illegitimate authority. Hlaing and Suu Kyi are among many who've been detained not by an objective rule of law but to fulfil this effort. Change must occur, and Myanmar must be freed from the violent military government.

Establishment-critical narrative

Extremist NLD members are guilty of inciting civil unrest alongside terrorist organizations in an attempt to undermine the State Administration Council, which is temporarily in charge of the county according to the 2008 Constitution. Myanmar and the international community must collectively fight such terrorism, which is unacceptable in any society.

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Report: World Heritage Site Glaciers Will Disappear By 2050

The Facts

  • A new UN report has found that some of the last remaining glaciers around the world will be lost by 2050 due to climate change. A third of the UN World Heritage sites will see their glaciers melt away, including Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, some parts of the Alps, and Yosemite National Park in the US.

  • The report studied 18.6K glaciers across 50 Word Heritage sites and concluded that they have "been retreating at an accelerated rate since 2000 due to CO2 emissions, which are warming temperatures." Glaciers at the sites are losing 58B tonnes of ice each year, contributing to up to 4.5% of the observed global sea level rise.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

For nearly three decades, the world climate alarmism organization — aka the UN — has been defrauding people on the pretext of climate change. Despite saying they only care about saving the planet and its inhabitants, what the bell-ringers really care about is holding down capitalism and establishing a global welfare system. Global warming is a convenient way to prompt people into offering the UN sovereign rule.

Pro-establishment narrative

Climate scientists are often ridiculed when their predictions don't pan out exactly. The difficulty of accurately predicting results often becomes fodder for writers, critics, and bloggers who call them alarmists. In fact, climate change is still happening and is still an urgent threat — climate scientists must be given permission to follow the scientific method as conditions change.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will collapse by Oct. 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Pakistan: Imran Khan Shot in Reported Assassination Attempt

The Facts

  • Former Pakistani PM, Imran Khan, was shot in the leg when a gunman opened fire at his anti-government protest convoy in Wazirabad in the eastern province of Punjab on Thursday, according to multiple reports.

  • Khan, who chairs the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) political party, was reportedly injured alongside several members and supporters of his group. They were taking part in the so-called "Long March" from Lahore to Islamabad, calling on the Pakistani government to hold early elections.


The Spin

Narrative A

The right to peacefully protest is a cornerstone of democracy, and regardless of what side you stand on, violence should have no place in Pakistan's politics. It's time for a swift investigation to hold those responsible accountable and prevent a repeat attack.

Narrative B

Khan's relentless onslaught on the state has shown him to be undeterred by the prospect of martial law or a bloody revolution and willing to take extreme measures in his quest to regain power. While nothing justifies this violent attack, unchecked hubris could be his downfall. It remains to be seen whether he will reconsider the lengths he's willing to go to in order to achieve his aims.

See sources

Russian Protester, Family Stripped of Citizenship

The Facts

  • After five months of legal proceedings, a Russian judge in a Moscow region court ruled on Monday that prominent anti-war and climate activist Arshak Makichyan's citizenship is invalid, along with that of his father and two brothers.

  • The decision to strip the Armenian-born Makichyan and his relatives of their Russian nationality and render them stateless comes after a court ruled last week that they gave false information when applying for citizenship. Makichyan's application was made as a 10-year-old in 2004.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Though millions of Russians are opposed to the Ukraine war, Makichyan's public protests were a rare sight — especially since Putin decided to invade Ukraine and criminalize dissent. This is another example of Russia's Soviet-style crackdown, aimed at instilling fear in those who oppose the regime.

Pro-Russia narrative

The West may claim that Makichyan is a victim of a uniquely Russian form of suppression, but other countries revoke dual citizenship status for taking a pro-Russia stance in the Ukraine war. Moldova, for example, has threatened its Russian dual citizens with prison time or citizenship revocation if they choose to fight for Russia.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 21.3K Russian citizens will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Reports: Patel Granted Immunity to Testify in Trump Docs Case

Photo: dailymail

The Facts

  • Prosecutors have reportedly granted immunity to Kash Patel, a close associate of former Pres. Trump, so he can testify before the federal grand jury investigating the handling of classified documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.

  • Previously, a federal judge had told the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) it couldn’t compel Patel’s testimony without granting him protection. Now Patel, who served as a national security and defense official in the Trump admin. — and was one of Trump’s representatives to the National Archives and DOJ in this case — can’t be prosecuted using information acquired from his upcoming testimony.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This investigation is just part of the never-ending witch hunt by Democrats and Biden’s DOJ to try to persecute Trump. Patel is on record saying the documents were declassified, and he was there when it happened. As president, Trump had this power without going through any procedures. There shouldn’t be any testimony, so immunity is the very least the DOJ could do for Patel.

Democratic narrative

If what Patel said in interviews about Trump’s declassifying of the documents is true, he surely won’t mind repeating it under oath. Of course, the odds are his answer will change once he’s compelled to testify — just like Trump’s lawyers haven’t argued the declassification angle because they know it’s a lie.

See sources

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