02 November 2022

Daily Newsletter

50 UN Countries Condemn China's Actions In Xinjiang

Photo: Reuters

The Facts

  • On Monday, 50 UN member states signed a statement condemning China's alleged crimes against humanity in its Xinjiang region and demanding "urgent action" from the UN against reported human rights violations against ethnic Uyghurs.

  • This joint statement on behalf of mainly Western countries comes after the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released an independent assessment claiming that the detention of Uyghurs "may constitute international crimes, particularly crimes against humanity."


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

There's little doubt that Beijing has been conducting crimes against humanity in Xinjiang. With its disregard for individual rights, the PRC has overseen one of modern times' worst rights violations outside a war zone while justifying its actions by emphasizing economic growth. The international community, particularly the West, has a moral obligation to defend human rights, even if it means confronting Beijing.

Pro-China narrative

Western claims about human rights violations in Xinjiang are fabrications designed to misinform public opinion and exploit this issue to destabilize China. Beijing is merely taking action to fight extremism and terrorism in accordance with the law, and those criticizing China while turning a blind eye to their own violations are just revealing their hypocrisy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that the UN will open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Colombia, Venezuela Presidents Meet As Ties Keep Improving

The Facts

  • On Tuesday, Colombian Pres. Gustavo Petro and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro held talks in Venezuela's capital Caracas in their first meeting since the two countries resumed diplomatic relations after a three-year break.

  • During their meeting, which Maduro deemed "fruitful and extensive," they agreed to improve trade and security cooperation. They also discussed a possible joint production of fertilizers and Venezuela's re-entry to the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) trade bloc, which it left in 2006.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Colombia's rapprochement with Venezuela is a major blow to the US administration. Prior to Petro, Colombia served as a NATO outpost to advance US geopolitical and military interests in the region. The election of leftist governments across Latin America is now pushing back Washington's influence, paving the way for people-serving economic integration and lasting regional peace.

Pro-establishment narrative

With the election of the Marxist Petro as Colombia's new president, the US has lost its most important military ally in the region. That Bogotá is now opening up to the Maduro dictatorship with its criminal ties to Russia, China, and Iran, and that both governments are now dreaming of socialist economic regional integration, is a dangerous development, and Washington must not stand by idly.

See sources

North Korea Fires Suspected Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Photo: Al Jazeera

The Facts

  • On Thursday, North Korea fired a presumed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that malfunctioned in mid-flight, forcing the Japanese government to issue evacuation alerts in the northern and central regions of the country.

  • Thursday's launch came a day after Pyongyang fired more than 20 missiles, the most on a single day. It was also the first time one of their missiles landed in the disputed maritime zone, called the Northern Limit Line (NLL), which prompted Seoul to respond with warplanes firing three air-to-ground missiles.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

When Washington was truly committed to de-escalating tensions with North Korea, Pyongyang responded positively, halting missile tests and demolishing several testing sites. This changed when the US began to increase its military presence in the Asia-Pacific, posing an existential threat to the DPRK. Carrying out provocative drills will only escalate tensions.

Pro-establishment narrative

Seoul and Washington have demonstrated goodwill toward Pyongyang in the hopes of creating an environment conducive to disarmament talks for four years. However, as North Korea has failed to make good on its promises — resuming its missile tests and further developing its nuclear program — a posture shift is necessary for the South and its allies to prepare for an attack from the North.

Nerd narrative

There's a 17% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Midterms: Pa. Court Says Misdated Mail-In Ballots Won't Be Counted

The Facts

  • General election ballots that are mailed in undated or incorrectly dated envelopes cannot be counted by election boards, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled.

  • The decision came after the acting [Democratic] Secretary of State decided that undated ballots would be included in the final count ahead of this month's midterms. According to the court's order, the state's county board of elections will separate and preserve ballots that meet these criteria, rather than count them.


The Spin

Republican narrative

This is a victory for the voters of Pennsylvania. Republicans have protected the rule of law by successfully taking this flaw in voting security to court. The GOP is helping to uphold democracy by safeguarding election integrity.

Democratic narrative

This ruling will do nothing except disenfranchise voters based on an irrelevant technicality. The GOP has, once again, undermined democracy by deliberately making it harder for Democrats to vote, in violation of the federal Civil Rights Act. In such close upcoming elections, a minority of erroneous votes could swing the results — Democrats must vote carefully in this precarious situation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 49% chance that Mehmet Oz will win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Day 252 Roundup: Russia to Return to Grain Deal; US Troops Inspecting Weapons in Ukraine

The Facts

  • Russia on Wednesday agreed to resume its participation in the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the UN, having recently pulled out of the agreement after accusing Ukraine — with the help of the British — of using the humanitarian shipping corridor to attack its Black Sea fleet over the weekend.

  • Russia's defense ministry said the country agreed to continue carrying out its role in the deal after receiving written guarantees from Kyiv that Ukraine would not use the sea corridor for military actions against Moscow, according to a statement.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The need to arm Ukraine must be counterbalanced with strict oversight rules for American weapons to ensure they don't fall into the wrong hands. This move to send US troops to supervise the process is about ensuring long-term US interests are protected.

Pro-Russia narrative

The presence of US troops and advisers in Ukraine dramatically escalates the chances of a direct conflict between Russia and America. Once a contingent is in a warzone, it will likely grow until you have an all-out conflict — a situation that needs to be avoided.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that US or NATO forces will conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Midterms: Biden Approval Ticks Up

Photo: reuters

The Facts

  • With just a week to go until the US midterm elections, a two-day national poll on Tuesday found that 40% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, up a percentage point from a week earlier.

  • Despite the news, Biden's numbers are still close to their lowest point throughout his tenure — 40%. The Reuters/Ipsos poll also found that nearly one-third of people considered the economy the biggest problem facing the nation as the Democrats prepare to defend their hold on the House and Senate.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Democrats are tethered to the President's low approval rating as the party faces darkening midterm prospects. Much like the Biden administration, the Democrats cannot escape voters' concerns over the economy and violent crime. It's clear why the president has avoided key swing states in advance of the midterms — he's a burden on his own party's electoral prospects.

Democratic narrative

While an incumbent president is always an electoral disadvantage, the GOP has thrown its rivals an electoral lifeline in the shape of extremist and under-qualified senate candidates. Republicans have put exceptionally poor candidates up for election in key states. Despite continuing ad hominem attacks on their political leader, polls have shown that voters often hold a relatively more favorable view of Democratic over Republican candidates.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that Joe Biden will no longer be US President before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Tear Gas Caused Indonesian Soccer Tragedy

The Facts

  • According to a report released Wednesday by Indonesia's human rights commission (Komnas HAM), excessive and indiscriminate police use of tear gas was the primary cause behind a deadly stampede at the Kanjuruhan soccer stadium in East Java that killed 135 people last month.

  • Soehatman Ramli, chairman of Indonesia’s World Safety Organization, said that the fatalities, including dozens of children, resulted from a lack of an appropriate risk management plan.


The Spin

Narrative A

This report only confirms what's already known that this was no accident but a grave crime. Excessive use of force in the form of tear gas violates FIFA'S rules and international law — to which Indonesia must adhere — which is why those responsible now need to face the consequences.

Narrative B

This tragedy is evidence of a deeper structural problem in Indonesia. Though needed, investigating police actions and holding those responsible accountable isn't enough. Police aren't equipped or trained to properly deal with soccer crowds, despite fans having an infamously violent culture. On top of that, Indonesia's sports facilities lack standard security protocols. A deeper review needs to happen.

See sources

SCOTUS Temporarily Blocks Trump Tax Return Release

The Facts

  • On Tuesday, SCOTUS Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily blocked the House Ways and Means Committee from obtaining former Pres. Trump’s tax returns — as scheduled on Thursday — until the full court can rule on the matter.

  • Roberts gave the committee until Nov. 10 to respond to Trump’s petition, which argued that the committee seeks to release the returns "to the public" without legislative reasons, adding that releasing them could undermine the executive branch's powers.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

SCOTUS must block the Democrats’ access to Trump’s tax returns. All they're doing is fishing for dirt without any genuine legislative reasons. With the elections fast approaching and looking to favor Republicans, there's no wonder they wanted them released this week.

Democratic narrative

Even the conservative-majority SCOTUS hasn’t been receptive to the former president’s attempts to keep records from the public or avoid investigation. Lower courts have already established that the committee holds a valid legislative purpose for seeking the returns, and, despite this minor setback, Trump can't avoid scrutiny indefinitely.

See sources

Ethiopia: Federal Government, Tigrayan Forces Agree To Truce

Photo: Reuters

The Facts

  • On Wednesday, African Union special envoy and former Nigerian Pres. Olusegun Obasanjo announced that Ethiopia's warring sides have formally agreed to a permanent cessation of hostilities in the first briefing on the peace talks in Pretoria, South Africa.

  • This comes just more than a week after formal peace talks began, with Obasanjo adding that Ethiopia's government and Tigrayan authorities have also agreed on "orderly, smooth, and coordinated disarmament" along with restoring law and order, services, and access to humanitarian supplies.


The Spin

Narrative A

As the federal government is on the verge of winning this war, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed has actively sought this ceasefire to ensure peace, development, and prosperity. This is the only way to prevent further attempts to violate the country's sovereignty and deter forces that may intend to cause conflicts among Ethiopians.

Narrative B

By signing this ceasefire, the federal government has acknowledged that it couldn't win the war despite making recent advances in Tigray. Addis Ababa knew that occupying these areas would require the deployment of tens of thousands of soldiers to fight local guerrilla, which would increase resistance in the medium and long term.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Climate Report: Europe Warming at Twice the Global Average

The Facts

  • According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), temperatures in Europe have increased more than twice the global average in the last three decades. The effects of the climbing temperatures have translated to droughts, wildfires, and ice melt episodes occurring across the continent.

  • The report comes just before the UN climate summit [COP27] begins in Egypt. A strong message is likely to be delivered about how off-track the world is on its climate goals and how temperatures are already soaring above predictions.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The UN is sparking climate alarmism with its never-ending reports of doom. The five-alarm fire they try to sell to the public wouldn't be so bad if they presented all their findings and disclosed that not all scientists and experts agree with the results. The authors of these reports always disclose that not enough research has been done. Why does the UN go to such great lengths to scare everyone into action?

Pro-establishment narrative

There's good reason to trust a report from the World Meterological Organization. Across 19 advanced economies, almost two thirds of those polled have a positive view of the UN. The organization is highly praised for its work across multiple issues from infectious diseases to climate change. This report is a reliable source.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the average global temperature in 2100 will be 2.57C higher than the average global temperature in 1880, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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