01 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

Madrassa Blast Kills At Least 15 In Northern Afghanistan

The Facts

  • On Wednesday, Imdadullah Mohajir, spokesman for Afghanistan's northern province of Samangan, stated that several students are among at least 15 people killed, while some other 20 were wounded, in a bomb blast at a religious school in the provincial capital Aybak.

  • A source in Samangan told BBC News that the majority of those killed are believed to be children aged nine to 15, with a doctor at the local hospital adding that some patients with critical injuries were transferred to hospitals in Mazar-i-Sharif for better treatment.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Since the Taliban took over, Afghanistan has increasingly descended into chaos. The looming humanitarian catastrophe and economic collapse provide the perfect breeding ground for terrorist groups, not only posing a growing threat to innocent Afghans but also targeting the international community. To prevent further destabilization, a UN peacekeeping force is required to promote a peace process among all Afghans.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's shortsighted only to blame the Taliban for escalating violence when the country was already descending into anarchy, and the Islamic State was on the rise before the US withdrawal. This was also fostered because Washington never developed a coherent political and economic strategy for Afghanistan. With international aid funds now being cut and the US freezing billions in Afghan assets, the situation will only worsen due to Western failures.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US will reopen its embassy in Kabul by December 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

IS Acknowledges Leader's Death

The Facts

  • Abu Omar al-Muhajer, a spokesman for the Islamic State (IS) group, announced Wednesday that its Iraqi leader Abu Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi has been killed in battle without providing further details on the date or circumstances of his death.

  • The US Central Command confirmed the death on Wednesday, with spokesman Col. Joe Buccino stating that it took place in mid-October when the Free Syrian Army carried out an operation in Syria's Dar'a province.


The Spin

Narrative A

This is another major blow to IS after Abu Hasan's predecessor and several other IS officials were also killed over the past eight months. And even as IS continues to carry out deadly attacks, its recent successes show one thing above all — thanks to US perseverance in its fight against terrorism, this group is now only a shadow of the organization that once horrified the world.

Narrative B

This is a setback for IS, but it would be a mistake to assume that this signals the end of the jihadist group. IS is now operating a network of autonomous cells and has launched a deadly insurgency in the region. All those fighting the jihadists would have to join forces to defeat them, including Kurdish forces, as well as Russia, Turkey, and the Syrian government. This is a volatile situation.

Narrative C

This is undoubtedly another major blow to IS. But now Turkish President Erdoğan's military actions in Syria, which are also motivated by domestic politics, not only endanger US personnel but threaten to strengthen IS by undermining Western-backed and Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Washington and its partners must increase pressure on Ankara to prevent a resurgence of IS in Syria.

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Day 281 Roundup: Five More Letter Bombs Reported in Spain; Nine Killed in Fires Across Ukraine

The Facts

  • On Thursday, five other sites across Spain — including the US embassy in Madrid — were reported to have been targeted by letter bombs. Though some have speculated they may be linked to Russia, Spain's Deputy Interior Minister said on Thursday that the packages likely originated from within the country, in apparent contradiction to earlier statements. Russia has condemned the attacks, and an investigation is ongoing.

  • A day earlier, a letter bomb detonated at Ukraine's embassy in Madrid, leaving a Ukrainian official with minor injuries. A second was discovered at a weapons manufacturer in Zaragoza — a firm that has reportedly made weapons that the Spanish government has delivered to Ukraine.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that NATO will declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Hong Kong Protester Shot by Police in 2019 Jailed for Six Years

Photo: aljazeera

The Facts

  • On Wednesday, a Hong Kong man who was shot by police at close range in 2019 was sentenced to six years in jail on three charges — attempting to escape from custody, obstructing a police officer, and attempting to steal an officer’s gun.

  • Chow Pak-kwan, who was 21 when he was shot during protests in Sai Wan Ho, and his co-defendant, Woo Tsz-kin, have been in custody since they were convicted in August.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

In the years since the protests against China's increased power over Hong Kong, many freedoms the protesters were fighting for are gone. Making matters worse, China seems to have given up on the protesters, who can’t make a life for themselves after they’re released from prison. The PRC has ruined these people’s lives.

Pro-China narrative

Western democracies, like the US, continue to expose themselves as hypocrites. On the one hand, the US shames and imprisons participants in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, but Washington encourages dissent and protests in Hong Kong. While Western democracies find their countries struggling, they should be more accepting that China is exploring a different path that has led to remarkable achievements.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by January 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Elon Musk's Neuralink Ready for Human Testing

The Facts

  • Elon Musk announced on Wednesday that his startup, Neuralink Corp., should be ready to test its brain implant technology on humans within the next six months.

  • Neuralink hopes the implant devices will restore vision, as well as the ability to move and communicate in people with severe disabilities, by decoding brain activity. In the future, Neuralink aims to open facilities where robot surgeons will implant the devices.


The Spin

Narrative A

Musk's futurist vision of humans is dangerous and reckless. Previously, he has been afraid of the idea of deep artificial intelligence — now he's taking a sharp turn toward the merging of humans and AI. This venture is likely to benefit the privileged at the higher and more professional levels of society, ultimately putting democracy at risk.

Narrative B

Neuralink is a well-funded and legitimate venture and those with disabilities should follow the company's success closely. The brain implant mission will be transformative for humans on the fronts of both medicine and artificial intelligence. Musk sees a future where the limitations of the human body and the human mind can be overcome to expose the full potential of humanity and propel society forward toward greatness.

Cynical narrative

Musk says he wants to test his brain implants on humans in six months. Don't trust his word. Historically, he has been lousy with deadlines. He previously said he wanted to test in humans in 2022, but that isn't happening. In 2011, he said he wanted to put people in space within three years, and the first manned SpaceX mission didn't occur until 2020. His failure to retain qualified staff in important positions doesn't bode well for his six-month goal, so this issue may be farther off in the future than it seems.

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UN Seeks Record $51B In Aid For 2023

The Facts

  • On Thursday, the UN and its partners launched an appeal for a record $51.5B in aid money for 2023, as the intergovernmental organization estimates that 339M people across 68 countries will need some form of emergency assistance next year.

  • Due to the "extreme events" that occurred in 2022, the UN predicts that an extra 65M people compared to last year will be pushed into crisis amid climate emergencies, the war in Ukraine, and the worst global food crisis in modern history.


The Spin

Narrative A

Without adequate funding, the crises we've seen in 2022 will only get worse in 2023. Numerous countries have been hit by deadly droughts and floods, from Pakistan to the Horn of Africa, and the war in Ukraine has turned a part of Europe into a battlefield, creating food insecurity among the world's poorest. It's time to act.

Narrative B

Over the last few years, the world has moved from crisis to crisis, and funding has failed to keep up. While important, money is only one part of the equation Rather than treating the symptoms, there also needs to be a concerted effort to address the root causes of the globe's emergencies, which capital alone fails to do.

Nerd narrative

There's a 19% chance there will be fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.

See sources

Report: EU Threatens Twitter Ban Over Content Moderation

The Facts

  • On Wednesday, EU commissioner for digital policy Thierry Breton warned Elon Musk that Twitter must enforce policies to protect users from hate speech, misinformation, and other harmful content or risk violating new rules that would lead to fines or even a ban.

  • In a video meeting with Musk, Breton reportedly said that Twitter must adhere to EU regulations, such as ditching an "arbitrary" approach to reinstating banned users and agreeing to an "extensive independent audit" of the platform by next year.


The Spin

Left narrative

Musk should heed the EU's warnings, as Twitter cannot be allowed to turn into a conspiratorial digital mechanism. The EU is taking the appropriate steps to regulate Big Tech, which has an ever-growing power over the general public. Simply put, this sort of government control is needed to prevent abuses in the digital world.

Right narrative

The EU is only making these threats to satisfy global elites who hate Musk's championing of free speech. The EU loves censorship and wants to bully him into creating a political echo chamber of "acceptable" opinions. Hopefully, Musk's agreement that the EU law is sensible doesn't mean he'll bend the knee.

See sources

Myanmar Shadow Gov't Leader: 2K Dead Fighting Junta

The Facts

  • The head of Myanmar's parallel civilian National Unity Government (NUG), Duwa Lashi La, told the Reuters NEXT conference on Thursday that at least 2K pro-democracy fighters have been killed confronting Myanmar's military junta. He pleaded for allies to provide military assistance.

  • Duwa Lashi La claimed that pro-NUG armed groups, known as People's Defense Forces, have killed some 20K junta troops but are out-gunned by an army allegedly equipped by China, India, and Russia.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Regional stakeholders such as ASEAN and China have sought to smooth things over to ensure peace and stability in Myanmar, but Western support for armed resistance and political extremist action have bolstered pro-NUG militants to descend the country onto the brink of a civil war. Myanmar is in chaos, and the NUG's calls for revolution will only make it worse.

Pro-establishment narrative

The UN and ASEAN have tried and failed to change the military junta's bloodthirsty behavior that has caused more than 2.4K civilian deaths and atrocious crimes against humanity since its disastrous coup in February 2021. Since there will be no sustainable peace while this illegitimate, corrupt regime remains in power, it's time for the US and its allies to unequivocally support the popular resistance movement.

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South Africa: Ramaphosa's Future in Balance Over 'Farmgate' Scandal

The Facts

  • An independent three-person panel, appointed by South Africa's National Assembly speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula in September, submitted a report to parliament on Wednesday claiming that Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa may be guilty of "a serious violation" of the constitution.

  • This comes after Arthur Fraser, the former head of state security and a political foe of the president, filed a criminal complaint in June alleging that Ramaphosa ordered an off-the-books investigation into the theft of millions of dollars he allegedly stashed at his game farm.


The Spin

Narrative A

This report should be the final nail in the coffin for the Ramaphosa administration, which has been facing major administrative and economic challenges. Having campaigned on fighting corruption and returning to ethical governance, the president must step aside now that he faces potential criminal investigations. He's lost the moral authority to govern South Africa.

Narrative B

These findings have seriously damaged the president's reputation and the ANC — potentially throwing the party into unprecedented chaos and leaving no good alternatives. But while Ramaphosa staying in power could anger voters ahead of the 2024 elections, staying put seems to be the "least-bad" option amid uncertainties about who would replace him.

See sources

US House Committee Receives Trump's Tax Returns

Photo: dailywire

The Facts

  • The US Department of the Treasury on Wednesday confirmed it has turned over former Pres. Trump’s tax returns from 2015-2020 to the House Ways and Means Committee following a years-long battle to get them released.

  • The tax return battle dates to 2019 when the House Oversight Committee subpoenaed the accounting firm Mazars USA after former Trump attorney, Michael Cohen, testified under oath alleging Trump’s habit of misrepresenting his net worth.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump has dragged this out long enough, even as several judges – many appointed by Republicans – have ruled against him even before the SCOTUS decision. It’s time to solve the mystery of why he fought so hard to keep his tax returns from public view. If he’s not hiding anything, he shouldn’t worry about what Congress will find.

Pro-Trump narrative

This decision is an unprecedented violation of Trump’s privacy rights, and the committee’s reasoning is preposterous. There’s very little time for Democrats to make any legal reforms based on what they’re going to read in the returns before Republicans take control of the House. The conservative majority SCOTUS should've stuck with Justice Roberts' original rejection.

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CDC Director Under Fire for Tuskegee Syphilis Study Tweet

The Facts

  • US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky stirred controversy on Wednesday when she referred in a tweet to the Tuskegee Syphilis Study as a “sacrifice” from Black men.

  • The CDC held an event acknowledging the 50th anniversary of the end of the study in which 600 African American men — 399 of whom had syphilis — were deceived into participating in an experiment that observed the progression of the infection if left untreated.


The Spin

Left narrative

Institutional racism is on display yet again as the CDC refuses to own up to its legacy and continues to target African Americans. The US government sanctioned the murders of black men in the Tuskegee experiments and has done nothing to atone for its actions.

Right narrative

The CDC is once again proving that it is a nefarious organization that cannot be trusted or respected. From the Tuskegee Syphilis Study to the botched handling of COVID, it continues to act against the interests of people’s health and lacks all accountability.

Pro-establishment narrative

While carelessly worded, Walensky's post was a clear attempt to acknowledge the atrocity of the study, as the organization should. It undoubtedly missed the mark, but the tweet doesn't represent the CDC as a whole.

See sources

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