Pentagon: China to Quadruple Nuclear Warheads By 2035
According to a report released by the Pentagon on Tuesday, China is on pace to grow its nuclear warhead arsenal from 400 to 1.5k by 2035. The near quadrupling of its nuclear bombs exceeds the US's previous prediction of 700 in six years and around 1k by 2030.
The report added that Beijing is looking to complete the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" by 2049, including building up its military to invade Taiwan by 2027 and achieving a "basically complete modernization" of its armed forces by 2035.
Pro-establishment narrative
China is no longer a small player on the world stage, and it's time for the Pentagon to fully recognize that fact. Not only will China be willing and able to invade Taiwan in 2027, but its military capabilities will soon match those of the US and give the CCP the power to militarily threaten nations beyond its current sphere of influence in Asia. The US has many outdated weapons that need replacing if it wishes to retain its geopolitical dominance.
Pro-China narrative
China's economic and military growth should not be seen as a new cold war with the US, but rather as part of a plan for global peaceful coexistence. Everything China is doing economically, socially, and technologically is learned from the US, and it's best if both nations publicly recognize that instead of stoking fears of conflict.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated offensively by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US: Biden Signs Bill Protecting Same-Sex Marriage
On Tuesday, US Pres. Joe Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, a bipartisan bill to protect same-sex and interracial marriage at a federal level.
The House — which initially approved the measure in July — passed the bill in a 258-169 vote last week after the Senate amended it to include protections for religious liberty.
Democratic narrative
This is a victory for LGBTQ+ rights, and the bipartisan support for the bill shows how far social issues have progressed in today's America. However, LGBTQ+ minorities continue to face prejudice, and the left cannot lose sight of the battles that still need fighting.
Republican narrative
This bill has been passed and signed despite majority opposition from Republican lawmakers over the language of the legislation that infringes on religious freedoms and will pave the way to increased federal action and litigation against religious groups. The law does nothing to actually advance LGBTQ+ freedoms but does everything to threaten religious ones.
Nerd narrative
There's a 24% chance that Lawrence v. Texas — which ruled that laws making sexual relations between consenting, adult gay couples illegal violated 14th Amendment rights to liberty and privacy — will be overturned by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 280 Roundup: EU Proposes Special Court for Russian 'War Crimes' and Using Frozen Assets for Ukraine
Following a talk on Tuesday between G7 justice ministers, representatives of the European Commission, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) over opening a probe into allegations of Russian war crimes, European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday proposed to set up a special court to investigate the claims.
While continuing to support the work of the ICC — which already has a probe of allegations against Russia in progress — Von der Leyen said she'll work to get "the broadest international support possible" for the special tribunal. She further proposed using frozen Russian assets, seized by the EU, to pay for Ukrainian damages.
Anti-Russia narrative
Since Putin launched his invasion on Feb. 24, his forces have committed a number of atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol and elsewhere. This tribunal will help ensure justice is delivered for these war crimes.
Pro-Russia narrative
The West continues to fabricate and exaggerate Russia's actions while ignoring the very real crimes committed by Kyiv. However, Russia will continue to highlight these atrocities to the international community.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that Vladimir Putin will be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
San Francisco Police Approved to Use Lethal Robots
On Tuesday, San Francisco, Calif. officials voted to give police the ability to use remote-controlled and potentially lethal robots in emergency situations.
Following an intense two-hour debate, officials voted 8-3 in favor of the robots, despite concerns raised by civil rights and police watch groups.
Narrative A
Despite the hysterical label "killer robots," the SFPD's use of the robots in the field will only occur when the risk of loss of life to police officers or civilians outweighs any other force option available to the department. The robots don't have guns, and their use of explosives is confined to breaching fortified structures or disorienting violent subjects. Robots can be used correctly with the right protocols.
Narrative B
As has been the case with other police militarization efforts, deploying explosive-armed robots is a slippery slope toward using them in everyday practice. Though officials claim robots will only be used for dire situations, over time, they could be used to monitor every protest and every street corner. This is dystopian and dangerous.
NYC to Involuntarily Hospitalize Mentally Ill
On Tuesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced a plan to allow first responders to involuntarily hospitalize the mentally ill if they "cannot support their basic human needs to an extent that causes them harm."
Given the legal uncertainty, Adams also suggested that police officers who are unsure whether they have the authority to forcefully hospitalize someone could call a hotline or video chat with a professional "to get an expert opinion on what options may be available."
Conservative narrative
Contrary to the progressive orthodoxy, allowing severely mentally ill people to roam the streets is not compassionate; it's flat-out wrong. The mayor should be praised by politicians and city residents from all sides as he's finally taking action to save lives. This is also a strong first step toward the city legislature enacting concrete laws to ensure permanent public safety.
Progressive narrative
Current New York law imposes strict guidelines regarding involuntary hospitalization to protect individuals' civil liberties, and it should stay that way. Only if someone is visibly an immediate threat to themselves or others should they be forcefully taken by authorities.
Study: Alzheimer's Drug Slows Cognitive Decline, May Have Serious Side Effects
According to data presented on Tuesday, an experimental drug aimed at treating Alzheimer's, developed by companies Eisai and Biogen, slowed cognitive decline in a recent trial but may carry the risk of serious side effects.
During clinical trials of the drug "lecanemab," two patients died from brain bleeds, and the Japan-based company Eisai says it's unable to rule out the possibility the drug was a contributing factor, although they deny that it directly caused the deaths. Both patients — a 65-year-old woman and a man in his 80s — were also taking blood thinners at the time.
Narrative A
This unprecedented and historical moment in the development of Alzheimer's therapies is a big win for the Alzheimer's community — including caregivers and patients alike. The results of the trial will likely lead to the FDA granting marketing approval for the drug and begin the dawn of a new era for the treatment of this horrible disease.
Narrative B
This victory could come at a cost for patients who take the drug, considering the lethality of potential side effects. Before taking this medication, patients have to understand the risks and must consult with their doctors and families to determine if the positives outweigh the negatives.
Oath Keepers Founder Convicted Of Seditious Conspiracy
On Tuesday, Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes was found guilty of seditious conspiracy and other charges related to an alleged plot to conduct violence at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Fellow Oath Keeper Kelly Meggs was also found guilty of seditious conspiracy, while three other co-defendants – Jessica Watkins, Thomas Caldwell, and Ken Harrelson – were acquitted but found guilty of other charges, including obstruction of an official proceeding.
Republican narrative
The DOJ has unsurprisingly painted a completely distorted picture of events. If heated, hyperbolic rhetoric amounts to sedition, most of modern America would find themselves charged. Discourse surrounding revolution is deep-rooted in the country's history and culture, and cherry-picking such sentences to claim that a major conspiracy was afoot shouldn't be taken seriously.
Democratic narrative
What happened at the US Capitol went well beyond the realm of political protest gone bad and instead was a coordinated violent attack that the Oath Keepers played a role in planning. The DOJ’s case and the jury’s verdict show that the government can and will hold the rioters accountable and reinforces the importance of the Jan. 6 House Committee's work.
Hakeem Jeffries to Succeed Pelosi as Democratic House Leader
For the incoming 118th Congress, House Democrats elected NY Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as their party leader in the lower chamber. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) will join Jeffries as the newly-elected House minority whip and chair of the Democratic Caucus, respectively.
Jeffries ran unopposed and was elected by acclamation, making him the first Black leader of either party in either chamber. Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) considered opposing him but later dropped out, with Schiff reportedly considering a Senate run.
Democratic narrative
Not only will Jeffries enter his historic role at the helm of a unified party, but he'll also enjoy a 118th Congress facing only a slim opposition majority. Beginning from a point of strength will help Jeffries fight the growing Trumpism in the Republican party. He is a perfect choice to lead a new generation of Democrats in the House.
Republican narrative
Jeffries is as divisive as they come, exemplifying which direction Democrats want to take the country. As a man who labeled his political opponents as racists without a shred of evidence, the term "unity" is the last word that comes to mind regarding their party's so-called "newest generation of leadership."
French Baguette Earns Spot on UNESCO's 'Intangible Cultural Heritage' List
On Wednesday, the Paris-based United Nations heritage body UNESCO voted to add the "artisanal know-how and culture of baguette bread" to its list of "Intangible Cultural Heritage," which includes 600 traditions that span more than 130 countries.
French Pres. Macron described the baguette as "250 grams of magic and perfection." More than 6B are produced each year in french bakeries that have been in decline — especially in rural areas in recent years.
Narrative A
Food culture is part of humanity. It's not just about the foods we eat but about why we eat food, how we prepare it, and who we share our cuisine with. Food connects us to history and allows people to connect across societies. It is important to protect these cultural foods to safeguard our traditions and continue to share in our shared history — the baguette is a great example.
Narrative B
There are significant flaws in the UNESCO application and selection process for the Intangible Cultural Heritage list. For example, the process has largely excluded Chinese cuisine from the recognition, which is focused on unique historical know-how and skills. To have a more effective selection process, UNESCO must stop treating the process as a Western-centric publicity stunt and focus on humanity's collective culinary legacy.
Pakistan: Four Killed After Suicide Bomb Targets Polio Campaign
A Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) suicide bomber crashed into a police escort for a polio vaccine team near the southwestern city of Quetta, Pakistan, on Wednesday. The attack killed four and wounded more than 30 others, including 15 police officers.
Among the dead were three family members and a police officer who perished after the blast toppled the polio truck into a ravine and impacted a nearby car. The attack occurred just two days after a national polio vaccine drive began Monday.
Narrative A
Pakistan has been left to fend for itself after the Taliban's recent takeover of Afghanistan. In order to conduct genuine negotiations with the TTP, Pakistan must do so without directly engaging the Afghan Taliban — while discreetly working to ensure the Afghan Taliban drops its support for the TTP. Unfortunately, it's up to Islamabad to walk this unfair tightrope and build diplomatic and military safeguards to ensure these heinous attacks end.
Narrative B
Pakistan's current dilemma stems from its decades-old dream of establishing Muslim rule in neighboring India. The radical militant groups it nurtured in the 90s to fight a proxy war in Kashmir have turned into the Taliban and TTP groups seen today. Simply put, Islamabad is reaping the extremism it once desperately wanted to sow in its neighbors.