Pentagon: China to Quadruple Nuclear Warheads By 2035

Image copyright: The Economic Times

The Facts

  • According to a report released by the Pentagon on Tuesday, China is on pace to grow its nuclear warhead arsenal from 400 to 1.5k by 2035. The near quadrupling of its nuclear bombs exceeds the US's previous prediction of 700 in six years and around 1k by 2030.

  • The report added that Beijing is looking to complete the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" by 2049, including building up its military to invade Taiwan by 2027 and achieving a "basically complete modernization" of its armed forces by 2035.

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

China is no longer a small player on the world stage, and it's time for the Pentagon to fully recognize that fact. Not only will China be willing and able to invade Taiwan in 2027, but its military capabilities will soon match those of the US and give the CCP the power to militarily threaten nations beyond its current sphere of influence in Asia. The US has many outdated weapons that need replacing if it wishes to retain its geopolitical dominance.

Pro-China narrative

China's economic and military growth should not be seen as a new cold war with the US, but rather as part of a plan for global peaceful coexistence. Everything China is doing economically, socially, and technologically is learned from the US, and it's best if both nations publicly recognize that instead of stoking fears of conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated offensively by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment split



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