Pentagon: China to Quadruple Nuclear Warheads By 2035

    Pentagon: China to Quadruple Nuclear Warheads By 2035
    Last updated Dec 05, 2022
    Image credit: The Economic Times


    • According to a report released by the Pentagon on Tuesday, China is on pace to grow its nuclear warhead arsenal from 400 to 1.5k by 2035. The near quadrupling of its nuclear bombs exceeds the US's previous prediction of 700 in six years and around 1k by 2030.
    • The report added that Beijing is looking to complete the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" by 2049, including building up its military to invade Taiwan by 2027 and achieving a "basically complete modernization" of its armed forces by 2035.
    • It only analyzed China's 2021 activities, meaning the results of the report's assessment don't account for any impacts Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have had on the CCP's military goals. While China has observed the world's reaction to Russian threats, the US continues to monitor China-Russia joint military exercises.
    • The publication further stated that China also conducted 135 ballistic missile tests in 2021, which is more than the rest of the world combined. At a press briefing on the report, a senior defense official detailed China's test of a hypersonic missile that flew around the world before hitting its target in July 2021.
    • The report comes two weeks after Pres. Joe Biden — who commands a nuclear arsenal of 3,750 active warheads — met with Pres. Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Indonesia, where he objected to China's alleged "coercive and increasingly aggressive actions" toward Taiwan.
    • With the Pentagon earlier this year listing China as the US's chief national security threat, the report warned Congress that China is trying to "amass its national power" to turn the geopolitical landscape in its favor.


    Pro-establishment narrative

    China is no longer a small player on the world stage, and it's time for the Pentagon to fully recognize that fact. Not only will China be willing and able to invade Taiwan in 2027, but its military capabilities will soon match those of the US and give the CCP the power to militarily threaten nations beyond its current sphere of influence in Asia. The US has many outdated weapons that need replacing if it wishes to retain its geopolitical dominance.

    Pro-China narrative

    China's economic and military growth should not be seen as a new cold war with the US, but rather as part of a plan for global peaceful coexistence. Everything China is doing economically, socially, and technologically is learned from the US, and it's best if both nations publicly recognize that instead of stoking fears of conflict.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 50% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated offensively by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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