13 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested and Charged

Facts

  • On Monday, the founder of crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested in the Bahamas for financial offenses against laws in the US and the Bahamas. He has been charged by the US government with "one of the biggest financial frauds in US history" and violating campaign finance laws.
  • Bankman-Fried was scheduled to testify before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on Tuesday prior to his arrest. A draft copy of his testimony began, "I would like to start by formally stating, under oath: I f---ed up."
  • FTX was a global company with more than 130 affiliates that allowed investors to trade cryptocurrencies — expanding to be the third-largest exchange by volume. The company's commercials featured celebrities, and its logo appeared on an NBA stadium and baseball umpire uniforms.
  • In a statement, Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis said, “The Bahamas and the United States have a shared interest in holding accountable all individuals associated with FTX who may have betrayed the public trust and broken the law."
  • Federal prosecutors have reportedly been scrutinizing how FTX managed customer funds and the alleged transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars from the US to the Bahamas around the time of the bankruptcy filing. They were also said to be probing whether Bankman-Fried manipulated crypto markets by directing trades that led to the meltdown of the TerraUSD cryptocurrency earlier this year.
  • Bankman-Fried is charged with eight US crimes including wire fraud and money laundering. FTX's current Chief Executive, John Ray III, told the congressional hearing "We will never get all these assets back."

Spin

Narrative A

FTX was seen as one of the more reputable firms in the crypto world, and its founder was considered a Capitol Hill darling, having donated millions to political campaigns and helped write legislation around cryptocurrencies. This shocking twist — which will have ripple effects across the crypto world — brings all of that into question and renews calls for more regulation of this "wild west" financial space.

Narrative B

All of these problems stem from the lack of clarity provided by US legislators, which has driven 95% of the crypto market offshore. They are now largely powerless to retrieve the funds, and it makes no sense to further punish US crypto companies for these mistakes with a regulatory crackdown. US policymakers need to own the consequences of their actions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to at least 108 months in prison before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Brazil: Bolsonaro Supporters Attack Police HQ

Facts

  • On Monday, violent unrest broke out in several points of Brasília, including in front of the Federal Police HQ, after Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued an arrest warrant against pro-Bolsonaro indigenous leader José Acácio Serere Xavante at the request of the Prosecutor General.
  • Police stated that protesters lit vehicles on fire, blocked roads, and "attempted to invade" the Federal Police building, where Serere Xavante was being held for allegedly inciting people "to try to abolish the rule of law and to impede the swearing-in of the president and vice-president elect."
  • These clashes also came after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was certified as the country's next president after winning a closely-fought election run-off on Oct. 30. Despite not explicitly conceding defeat, outgoing Pres. Jair Bolsonaro has authorized the transition process to go ahead.
  • Hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters gathered outside the presidential residence on Monday afternoon to call for "military intervention," claiming the election was rigged. Bolsonaro joined them for a public prayer but didn't address the crowd.
  • On Friday, he told supporters that the armed forces are "the last standing barrier to socialism in Brazil," adding that the military is loyal to the people. Last month, his Liberal Party sought to annul votes, but the case backfired as the court fined it for allegations made in "bad faith."
  • The outbreak of violence, which reportedly subsided on Tuesday, has sparked concerns about further upheaval in the lead-up to Lula's inauguration on Jan. 1 — an event expected to be attended by thousands of his supporters.

Spin

Left narrative

Bolsonaro has repeatedly incited violence against anyone who doesn't blindly support his government. Since losing the 2022 election, his supporters have wreaked havoc. What Brazil desperately needs is a de-radicalization process that will only ever truly be completed if Bolsonaro and his followers are held accountable for their actions.

Right narrative

These protests reflect widespread doubts in Brazil, as the corrupt Lula is set to return to office by a narrow margin of support over Bolsonaro. Brazilian institutions are to blame for this distrust, as they have screened questions about both the electoral process and results. It's as if they were trying to hide something while failing to make the country's electoral system auditable.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Bolsonaro will successfully stage a coup by January 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 293: EU Agrees to €18B In Ukraine Aid

Facts

  • EU countries on Monday confirmed they will be sending an €18B ($19B) aid package to Ukraine, and that the funds will be delivered from the European Commission budget next year. Hungary had blocked the package — which requires approval from all 27 EU member states — due to EU concerns about corruption in Hungary. Under the new agreement, the EU will release more funds to Hungary if it makes progress on corruption indicators.
  • The news came as US officials told Reuters that roughly $13M of power equipment has now been delivered to Ukraine, with another source telling the outlet that two more planeloads would leave from the US this week.
  • Meanwhile, dozens of countries and international organizations met in Paris on Tuesday, to raise further funds and help coordinate the delivery of supplies to Ukraine as the nation continues to struggle with heat and power shortages. Opening the conference, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron said Russia's attacks on civilian infrastructure were a war crime.
  • Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy also renewed calls to Western leaders for advanced weaponry, pressing them to provide long-range missiles, modern tanks and other hi-tech air defense systems.
  • Elsewhere, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin has reportedly canceled an annual press conference for the first time in a decade. While some downplayed the announcement, others said Putin wanted to avoid criticism and awkward questions over his faltering campaign in Ukraine.
  • On the ground, fighting remained heaviest in the region of Donetsk, where pro-Russia officials claimed to have surrounded the small city of Maryinka, just west of Donetsk city. Ukrainian officials said three civilians were killed and 16 were injured in Russian attacks over the last day, while pro-Russia officials said five civilians were killed in Ukrainian attacks in the same time period.
  • Further Russian attacks were also recorded in Kherson, where three civilians were killed and 15 were injured, and in Zaporizhzhia, where one civilian died. One injury was recorded in Mykolaiv, while Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk were also struck without reports of civilian casualties at this stage.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 7.75M internally displaced Ukrainians by the end of 2022 (based on UN estimations), according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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UK Sees Greatest Number of Strikes Since 2011 in October

Facts

  • The UK — hit by widespread industrial action this year as workers walk out over pay and conditions — recorded a total of 417k working days lost due to labor disputes in October, the highest figure since November 2011.
  • Workers across a range of sectors have gone on strike in recent months — including rail workers, teachers, postal staff, and lawyers — as inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, continues to squeeze household budgets.
  • This is expected to continue as approximately 100K members of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) are set to walk out across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland on Dec. 15 in the first of two days of strikes this month to protest poor pay and working conditions. They plan to walk out again on Dec. 20.
  • Earlier this year, the government offered a pay rise of 4.3% for nurses, but it was rejected by the RCN, which is demanding a 19% increase — a 5% uplift on inflation of 14%, as measured by October’s retail price index.
  • Meanwhile, a four-day railway strike began on Tuesday, which is expected to leave Britons faced with travel disruptions into Sunday. There will also be another major disruption of the railway system in the first week of 2023.
  • Cabinet minister Oliver Dowden said that the government “cannot eliminate” the risk of a wave of strikes this month. While Downing Street has said that the £28B cost of granting an 11% salary increase in parallel with inflation would be “unaffordable.”

Spin

Right narrative

What the UK requires is the firm hand of government to smack down the strikers. Instead of feebly expressing its disappointment, the current administration must take a page out of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher's book by declaring a state of emergency and outlawing strike action in public services. Failure to do so will result in a paralyzed nation, not only disrupting the Christmas festivities but also endangering peoples’ lives.

Left narrative

The strikers represent the only resistance to a never-ending assault on pay, public services, and the health and safety of the masses. The NHS has seen a mass exodus due to privatization, terrible pay, and ever-worsening conditions, resulting in a dangerous deterioration in its quality of care. Meanwhile, the publicly subsidized rail network system has become prohibitively expensive and will become increasingly unsafe due to staff cuts. If the ruling class and their stooges in government get their way, everyone will lose.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the UK will hold its next general election by March 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Moderna, Merck Vaccine Combo Cuts Melanoma Recurrence

Facts

  • On Tuesday, Moderna and Merck announced their co-developed, personalized skin cancer vaccine — based on individual tumor DNA — significantly reduced skin cancer recurrence in patients with phase three or four melanoma who had tumors removed in surgery.
  • Patients who took a combination of Moderna's mRNA vaccine technology and Merck's already-approved Keytruda immunotherapy saw a 44% reduction in relapse and death compared to those who only took Keytruda.
  • This comes after Merck agreed to jointly develop and sell the treatment in October, sharing costs and any profits equally. Keytruda, a so-called checkpoint inhibitor, is designed to disable a protein called programmed death 1, or PD-1, that helps tumors to evade the immune system.
  • The roughly 150-patient phase-two trial began in 2019, with some patients receiving up to nine doses of the vaccine, given every three weeks in combo with Keytruda, for up to 18 cycles. The trial was delayed after the pandemic prompted Moderna to repurpose some of its cancer vaccine manufacturing to create COVID shots.
  • The companies said that serious treatment-related adverse events occurred in 14.4% of patients who received the vaccine combination compared to 10% in those who only received the immunotherapy, adding that Keytruda already has some known side effects.
  • Shares of Moderna jumped 23% in midday trading on Tuesday, with Merck shares seeing a nearly 1% jump. A phase three trial is expected to start next year, the final round before the companies submit the drug to regulators.

Spin

Narrative A

Cancer vaccine research hasn't been very successful due to cycle times taking too long, which is why this study is such a breakthrough. The use of mRNA technology not only allows a quicker process but a personalized one in which individual patients' tumor DNA can be used to attack specific cancer cell mutations harming their immune systems.

Narrative B

This is all positive news, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves over just one headline. While promising, potentially successful cancer vaccines like this face many challenges and are still years away from being rolled out. Further research is needed.

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Congress Reaches Deal to Avert Govt Shutdown

Facts

  • On Tuesday, US lawmakers announced they had reached a "framework" on a 2023 funding plan, allowing them to complete work on the bill over the next week past Friday's deadline to avoid a government shutdown.
  • According to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the House is scheduled to hold a first procedural vote on the stopgap bill Wednesday night, and the Senate could give final approval by Thursday.
  • If passed, the bill would push the deadline to Dec. 23. However, earlier on Tuesday, Republicans warned that the work would need to be completed by Dec. 22, or lawmakers would have to pass another temporary spending bill into early 2023.
  • Congress has faced challenges in agreeing on a long-term deal. Republicans have been critical of the Democrat's spending on items such as the $1.9T pandemic relief bill and a recent healthcare and climate bill.
  • Democrats, however, maintain that the spending was necessary to help Americans recover from the pandemic as well as tackle other priorities that are critical to the nation.
  • While specific details of the temporary bill are yet to be shared, it's expected to include new emergency funding for Ukraine and reform to the way Congress certifies US presidential elections.

Spin

Republican narrative

Over the past two years, Democrats have had plenty of time to push through trillions of dollars in wasteful spending to satisfy their donors, so there's no reason for the GOP to partner with its liberal colleagues except to pass this stop-gap bill. When Republicans take control of the House next month, they'll be able to allocate the funds appropriately for both defense and prudent social programs.

Democratic narrative

The Democrats are trying hard to reach their colleagues across the aisle to resolve this challenge in the best interest of the country, as the GOP is doing everything it can to postpone this much-needed bill into next year. This is a dangerous move that will likely see conservative lawmakers hold their votes hostage to force leadership to cave to their demands, ultimately leading to a government shutdown anyway.

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WTO: China Takes Action Against US Chip Curbs

Facts

  • On Monday, China formally filed a legal "request for consultations" at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the US over its move to block sales of advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license to Chinese firms.
  • Previously, the Biden administration in October announced various chip export control measures. However, China claims the changes obstruct international trade and threaten the stability of the global industrial supply chains.
  • Calling the US measures "a typical practice of trade protectionism," the PRC's commerce ministry accused the US of blocking the country's advancement in the semiconductor industry. The legal action was filed to "defend its legitimate rights and interests," the ministry added.
  • Meanwhile, the US is in dialogue with Japan and the Netherlands to cooperate with its chip-related curbs on China. To counter US moves, China is taking a step towards self-sufficiency and is working on a more than $143B package to support its semiconductor industry.
  • A joint report by the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Boston Consulting Group estimates that the semiconductor industry will double in size to more than $1T by 2030, and China will account for approximately 60% of that growth. Currently, China consumes about 40% of global chip demand each year.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

The US can only ban the sale of technology or equipment, not the free flow of global tech talent to China, so it will be virtually impossible to contain China’s rise and emergence as a stronger power than the US. If the intention of these export control measures is to make it harder for China to become a global leader in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, it’s bound to backfire.

Anti-China narrative

The US is having a rational response to heightened geopolitical threats and the role of emerging technologies in advanced weapons systems. It would be foolish to expect the US to continue supplying its own and allied technologies at the cost of national security and help China reach its goal of upgrading its military capabilities. Even if the ban on semiconductor exports to China sets off a slight geopolitical quake, it’s worth it.

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Israel: Gene-Edited Hens Only Lay Female Eggs

Facts

  • On Tuesday, researchers at the Israeli Agricultural Research Organization led by Dr. Yuval Cinnamon announced the development of genetically engineered hens that lay eggs that only hatch females — an advancement that scientists say may prevent the suffering of unwanted male chicks in the future.
  • The scientists genetically engineered the hens' — who carry Z and W chromosomes — Z chromosome. The eggs laid by the hens, called "Golda hens," are then exposed to blue light — activating the edited DNA. When exposed, the males — made up of two Z chromosomes — stop developing, while the female eggs continue on as normal.
  • This is significant for both economic and moral reasons. Male chicks cost more to care for than they would ever sell for as meat, and as a result, they're often culled.
  • The Golda hen’s female eggs that hatch will lay table eggs. These females aren't genetically modified as they inherit the unedited W chromosome from the mother and the untouched Z chromosome from the father.
  • The team — which has yet to publish the research as it plans to license the science — reportedly worked in tandem with UK-based animal welfare company Compassion in World Farming.

Spin

Narrative A

As a result of the human cultivation of chickens and eggs, a stomach-turning seven billion male chicks are killed each year because they hold no commercial value. If genetically-engineered hens help prevent unnecessary loss of life and boost egg production, then it's the right route to take.

Narrative B

The process of genetic engineering is a moral double-edged sword. The opportunity to end the slaughter of innocent animals is undoubtedly a good thing. However, editing the genetic code of a living being is unnatural and could have unforeseen consequences.

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Alabama, Utah Ban TikTok for State Govt Use

Facts

  • On Monday, Alabama and Utah became the latest US states to ban the use of Chinese-owned TikTok on state government devices and computer networks because of reported national security concerns.
  • These latest bans come amid warnings from FBI Director Chris Wray, who last month said that the Chinese government could potentially collect data from its millions of US users or use the recommendation algorithm to conduct influence operations.
  • In addition to banning the download of the app on state devices, Utah Republican Gov. Spencer Cox’s executive order also said “an agency may not sponsor content on TikTok or maintain an agency-branded or agency-sponsored TikTok account." Similar bans have taken place in Nebraska, South Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Maryland, and Oklahoma in recent months.
  • Since its founding in 2018, TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, has drawn the concern of US lawmakers. ByteDance was fined by the US Federal Trade Commission over its collection of data from children, and in 2020 then-Pres. Donald Trump unsuccessfully tried to ban the app.
  • A TikTok spokesperson reacted to the bans in Utah and Alabama in a statement, saying, "We're disappointed that so many states are jumping on the bandwagon to enact policies based on unfounded, politically charged falsehoods about TikTok.”
  • Other states are considering a similar ban, with New York lawmakers recently proposing a bill to ban its state employees and contractors from downloading the application.

Spin

Republican narrative

As long as the PRC has enough influence over companies to force them to provide it with any requested data, it’s important to keep TikTok off as many American devices as possible. These state government-level bans, in places mostly run by Republicans, are the best way to protect personal safety and national security, and an all-out federal ban should be on Congress’s agenda in the near future.

Democratic narrative

The Biden admin. has a more prudent approach — negotiating with ByteDance to address national security concerns. While Republicans see this issue as a way to criticize Biden's China policies, the reality is that the social media platform is extremely popular nationwide with GenZ voters.

Establishment-critical narrative

TikTok's rising popularity and rapid growth pose an existential threat to Western Big Tech. These bans are just the latest in a long and well-documented smear campaign against the company.

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Bangladesh Arrests Leader of Largest Muslim Party

Facts

  • Days after announcing his party would join opposition-led protests calling for the resignation of Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina, the leader of the country's largest Muslim faction, Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat) party, was arrested on Tuesday.
  • The 64-year-old was arrested by counterterrorism officers, though metropolitan police spokesman Faruq Ahmed didn't elaborate on the charges. Jamaat — the nation's third-largest party overall — has been banned from contesting elections since 2012.
  • Jamaat was a major ally of the lead opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for years before Hasina came to power in 2009, after which Jamaat's entire leadership was arrested and tried for war crimes dating back to the country's 1971 independence war against Pakistan.
  • Five of the party's leaders were later hanged between 2013 and 2016 after being convicted in a war crimes court, with Jamaat labeling the executions politically motivated. Hundreds were reportedly killed and thousands detained during subsequent protests against the hangings.
  • Rahman's son, Rafat Sadik Saifullah, was also detained last month on extremism charges. The arrests come amid a continuing crackdown on BNP leaders and supporters protesting the government as the country faces soaring fuel prices and cost of living.
  • The BNP has also called for Hasina to step down, arguing that a credible vote under her regime is impossible after she was accused of rigging the past two elections in 2014 and 2018. Western governments and the UN have expressed concerns over the political climate in one of Asia's fastest-growing economies.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

When Bangladesh's elections were monitored by a non-partisan third party, they were deemed free and fair. But ever since that system ended in 2011, the general consensus is that elections have been shady. PM Hasina's ruling Awami League party seems to be operating under an authoritarian, power retention mindset, which is why the world is calling on them to bring back that system and stop criminalizing the opposition.

Establishment-critical narrative

Just as Bangladesh doesn't recommend which parties should run for office in the US and other Western states, Western diplomats should stay out of Dhaka's domestic affairs. These self-proclaimed "preachers of democracy" have ignored Bangladesh's economic and political prosperity, and, at the very least, should keep their thoughts on Bengali party politics to themselves.

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