FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested and Charged
On Monday, the founder of crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested in the Bahamas for financial offenses against laws in the US and the Bahamas. He has been charged by the US government with "one of the biggest financial frauds in US history" and violating campaign finance laws.
Bankman-Fried was scheduled to testify before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on Tuesday prior to his arrest. A draft copy of his testimony began, "I would like to start by formally stating, under oath: I f---ed up."
Narrative A
FTX was seen as one of the more reputable firms in the crypto world, and its founder was considered a Capitol Hill darling, having donated millions to political campaigns and helped write legislation around cryptocurrencies. This shocking twist — which will have ripple effects across the crypto world — brings all of that into question and renews calls for more regulation of this "wild west" financial space.
Narrative B
All of these problems stem from the lack of clarity provided by US legislators, which has driven 95% of the crypto market offshore. They are now largely powerless to retrieve the funds, and it makes no sense to further punish US crypto companies for these mistakes with a regulatory crackdown. US policymakers need to own the consequences of their actions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to at least 108 months in prison before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Brazil: Bolsonaro Supporters Attack Police HQ
On Monday, violent unrest broke out in several points of Brasília, including in front of the Federal Police HQ, after Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued an arrest warrant against pro-Bolsonaro indigenous leader José Acácio Serere Xavante at the request of the Prosecutor General.
Police stated that protesters lit vehicles on fire, blocked roads, and "attempted to invade" the Federal Police building, where Serere Xavante was being held for allegedly inciting people "to try to abolish the rule of law and to impede the swearing-in of the president and vice-president elect."
Left narrative
Bolsonaro has repeatedly incited violence against anyone who doesn't blindly support his government. Since losing the 2022 election, his supporters have wreaked havoc. What Brazil desperately needs is a de-radicalization process that will only ever truly be completed if Bolsonaro and his followers are held accountable for their actions.
Right narrative
These protests reflect widespread doubts in Brazil, as the corrupt Lula is set to return to office by a narrow margin of support over Bolsonaro. Brazilian institutions are to blame for this distrust, as they have screened questions about both the electoral process and results. It's as if they were trying to hide something while failing to make the country's electoral system auditable.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Bolsonaro will successfully stage a coup by January 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 293: EU Agrees to €18B In Ukraine Aid
EU countries on Monday confirmed they will be sending an €18B ($19B) aid package to Ukraine, and that the funds will be delivered from the European Commission budget next year. Hungary had blocked the package — which requires approval from all 27 EU member states — due to EU concerns about corruption in Hungary. Under the new agreement, the EU will release more funds to Hungary if it makes progress on corruption indicators.
The news came as US officials told Reuters that roughly $13M of power equipment has now been delivered to Ukraine, with another source telling the outlet that two more planeloads would leave from the US this week.
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.
Pro-Russia narrative
Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 7.75M internally displaced Ukrainians by the end of 2022 (based on UN estimations), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Sees Greatest Number of Strikes Since 2011 in October
The UK — hit by widespread industrial action this year as workers walk out over pay and conditions — recorded a total of 417k working days lost due to labor disputes in October, the highest figure since November 2011.
Workers across a range of sectors have gone on strike in recent months — including rail workers, teachers, postal staff, and lawyers — as inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, continues to squeeze household budgets.
Right narrative
What the UK requires is the firm hand of government to smack down the strikers. Instead of feebly expressing its disappointment, the current administration must take a page out of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher's book by declaring a state of emergency and outlawing strike action in public services. Failure to do so will result in a paralyzed nation, not only disrupting the Christmas festivities but also endangering peoples’ lives.
Left narrative
The strikers represent the only resistance to a never-ending assault on pay, public services, and the health and safety of the masses. The NHS has seen a mass exodus due to privatization, terrible pay, and ever-worsening conditions, resulting in a dangerous deterioration in its quality of care. Meanwhile, the publicly subsidized rail network system has become prohibitively expensive and will become increasingly unsafe due to staff cuts. If the ruling class and their stooges in government get their way, everyone will lose.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK will hold its next general election by March 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Moderna, Merck Vaccine Combo Cuts Melanoma Recurrence
On Tuesday, Moderna and Merck announced their co-developed, personalized skin cancer vaccine — based on individual tumor DNA — significantly reduced skin cancer recurrence in patients with phase three or four melanoma who had tumors removed in surgery.
Patients who took a combination of Moderna's mRNA vaccine technology and Merck's already-approved Keytruda immunotherapy saw a 44% reduction in relapse and death compared to those who only took Keytruda.
Narrative A
Cancer vaccine research hasn't been very successful due to cycle times taking too long, which is why this study is such a breakthrough. The use of mRNA technology not only allows a quicker process but a personalized one in which individual patients' tumor DNA can be used to attack specific cancer cell mutations harming their immune systems.
Narrative B
This is all positive news, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves over just one headline. While promising, potentially successful cancer vaccines like this face many challenges and are still years away from being rolled out. Further research is needed.
Congress Reaches Deal to Avert Govt Shutdown
On Tuesday, US lawmakers announced they had reached a "framework" on a 2023 funding plan, allowing them to complete work on the bill over the next week past Friday's deadline to avoid a government shutdown.
According to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the House is scheduled to hold a first procedural vote on the stopgap bill Wednesday night, and the Senate could give final approval by Thursday.
Republican narrative
Over the past two years, Democrats have had plenty of time to push through trillions of dollars in wasteful spending to satisfy their donors, so there's no reason for the GOP to partner with its liberal colleagues except to pass this stop-gap bill. When Republicans take control of the House next month, they'll be able to allocate the funds appropriately for both defense and prudent social programs.
Democratic narrative
The Democrats are trying hard to reach their colleagues across the aisle to resolve this challenge in the best interest of the country, as the GOP is doing everything it can to postpone this much-needed bill into next year. This is a dangerous move that will likely see conservative lawmakers hold their votes hostage to force leadership to cave to their demands, ultimately leading to a government shutdown anyway.
WTO: China Takes Action Against US Chip Curbs
On Monday, China formally filed a legal "request for consultations" at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the US over its move to block sales of advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license to Chinese firms.
Previously, the Biden administration in October announced various chip export control measures. However, China claims the changes obstruct international trade and threaten the stability of the global industrial supply chains.
Pro-China narrative
The US can only ban the sale of technology or equipment, not the free flow of global tech talent to China, so it will be virtually impossible to contain China’s rise and emergence as a stronger power than the US. If the intention of these export control measures is to make it harder for China to become a global leader in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, it’s bound to backfire.
Anti-China narrative
The US is having a rational response to heightened geopolitical threats and the role of emerging technologies in advanced weapons systems. It would be foolish to expect the US to continue supplying its own and allied technologies at the cost of national security and help China reach its goal of upgrading its military capabilities. Even if the ban on semiconductor exports to China sets off a slight geopolitical quake, it’s worth it.
Israel: Gene-Edited Hens Only Lay Female Eggs
On Tuesday, researchers at the Israeli Agricultural Research Organization led by Dr. Yuval Cinnamon announced the development of genetically engineered hens that lay eggs that only hatch females — an advancement that scientists say may prevent the suffering of unwanted male chicks in the future.
The scientists genetically engineered the hens' — who carry Z and W chromosomes — Z chromosome. The eggs laid by the hens, called "Golda hens," are then exposed to blue light — activating the edited DNA. When exposed, the males — made up of two Z chromosomes — stop developing, while the female eggs continue on as normal.
Narrative A
As a result of the human cultivation of chickens and eggs, a stomach-turning seven billion male chicks are killed each year because they hold no commercial value. If genetically-engineered hens help prevent unnecessary loss of life and boost egg production, then it's the right route to take.
Narrative B
The process of genetic engineering is a moral double-edged sword. The opportunity to end the slaughter of innocent animals is undoubtedly a good thing. However, editing the genetic code of a living being is unnatural and could have unforeseen consequences.
Alabama, Utah Ban TikTok for State Govt Use
On Monday, Alabama and Utah became the latest US states to ban the use of Chinese-owned TikTok on state government devices and computer networks because of reported national security concerns.
These latest bans come amid warnings from FBI Director Chris Wray, who last month said that the Chinese government could potentially collect data from its millions of US users or use the recommendation algorithm to conduct influence operations.
Republican narrative
As long as the PRC has enough influence over companies to force them to provide it with any requested data, it’s important to keep TikTok off as many American devices as possible. These state government-level bans, in places mostly run by Republicans, are the best way to protect personal safety and national security, and an all-out federal ban should be on Congress’s agenda in the near future.
Democratic narrative
The Biden admin. has a more prudent approach — negotiating with ByteDance to address national security concerns. While Republicans see this issue as a way to criticize Biden's China policies, the reality is that the social media platform is extremely popular nationwide with GenZ voters.
Establishment-critical narrative
TikTok's rising popularity and rapid growth pose an existential threat to Western Big Tech. These bans are just the latest in a long and well-documented smear campaign against the company.
Bangladesh Arrests Leader of Largest Muslim Party
Days after announcing his party would join opposition-led protests calling for the resignation of Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina, the leader of the country's largest Muslim faction, Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat) party, was arrested on Tuesday.
The 64-year-old was arrested by counterterrorism officers, though metropolitan police spokesman Faruq Ahmed didn't elaborate on the charges. Jamaat — the nation's third-largest party overall — has been banned from contesting elections since 2012.
Pro-establishment narrative
When Bangladesh's elections were monitored by a non-partisan third party, they were deemed free and fair. But ever since that system ended in 2011, the general consensus is that elections have been shady. PM Hasina's ruling Awami League party seems to be operating under an authoritarian, power retention mindset, which is why the world is calling on them to bring back that system and stop criminalizing the opposition.
Establishment-critical narrative
Just as Bangladesh doesn't recommend which parties should run for office in the US and other Western states, Western diplomats should stay out of Dhaka's domestic affairs. These self-proclaimed "preachers of democracy" have ignored Bangladesh's economic and political prosperity, and, at the very least, should keep their thoughts on Bengali party politics to themselves.