14 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

Rupert Murdoch Deposed Over 2020 Election Reporting

Facts

  • On Tuesday, Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of Fox Corp, was scheduled to sit for a deposition as part of a defamation lawsuit alleging that Fox News promoted false claims that a voting tech company rigged the 2020 US presidential election.
  • According to a filing in Delaware's Superior Court, Murdoch's deposition was scheduled to take place remotely on Dec. 13 and 14.
  • Dominion Voting Systems, which is suing Fox News for $1.6B, alleges Fox pushed statements in line with hard-right conspiracy theories that voting machines were rigged to hurt Trump. Lachlan Murdoch, the CEO of Fox Corp and Rupert Murdoch's son, gave his deposition previously; neither are named as defendants in the suit.
  • What Fox executives and personalities who’ve sat with Dominion lawyers have said during previous depositions is unknown. Fox hasn’t commented, and the company previously contested Dominion's claims, saying it was "proud" of its 2020 coverage.
  • A trial has been set for April 2023. A separate defamation suit against Fox by voting company Smartmatic for $2.6B won’t be ready for trial until the summer of 2024.

Spin

Left narrative

It looks like the "alternative universe" that Fox News resides in is finally being shattered. Dominion isn’t just going after the network for the falsities it spread about voting machines, it’s establishing a pattern, through depositions, of Fox spewing misinformation. Fox shouldn't have aligned itself with extremists regarding election denial.

Right narrative

Freedom of the press is foundational to democracy, and Fox News’ right to report on the news, and provide opinion and analysis, is under attack. The allegations aired were extremely newsworthy at the time, and Fox gave Dominion a platform to respond. It will be extremely difficult to prove “actual malice,” so Fox will undoubtedly prevail, and Fox journalists will continue to do their vital job.

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DR Congo: Flooding Kills At Least 141

Facts

  • According to officials, at least 141 people died in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on Tuesday after floods caused landslides in the capital city of Kinshasa. Pres. Félix Tshisekedi on Wednesday declared three days of mourning.
  • Entire neighborhoods have been inundated with flood waters and mud, destroying homes and roads and creating sinkholes — one of which destroyed the roadway between Kinshasa and the chief seaport of Matadi.
  • One resident living in Mont-Ngafula said, "we've never seen a flood here on this scale," adding: "I was asleep, and I could feel water in the house...it's a disaster. We've lost all our possessions in the house, nothing could be saved."
  • As Kinshasa is located on the Congo River, poor regulation and increased urbanization have made the growing city vulnerable to flash floods following intense rain events, which have increased recently.
  • Officials say much of the destruction happened to houses built on plots without official permission. A similar flood killed at least 32 in and around Kinshasa in 2019.
  • PM Jean-Michel Sama Lukonde and the provincial governor visited the flooded areas and have made plans to meet with regional representatives to discuss addressing the emergency. Each day of flooding in the capital is estimated to cost households $1.2M in transportation disruption.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This latest disaster is evidence that climate change is widespread and rapidly accelerating. As cities face increased extreme events like flooding, the world needs to adapt. Local and national governments are reacting too slowly — we must stop standing idly by amid this ecological crisis, and open our eyes to the economic opportunity to grow our cities equitably for the future.

Establishment-critical narrative

Climate change threatens every nation on the planet, but poor nations like the DRC are facing the brunt of the disastrous impacts. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and failed crop seasons will only worsen until appropriate funding is allocated to help these overpopulated and impoverished regions develop economically and infrastructurally.

Narrative C

It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that sea levels will rise by at least 578 millimeters by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Meta Sued For $2B Over Violent Killing In Ethiopia

Facts

  • A group of researchers and activists have filed a lawsuit against Facebook's parent company, Meta Platforms Inc., in Kenya’s high court. The group accuses the company of amplifying hate speech and inciting violence in Ethiopia on the platform — they are also calling for about $2B in restitution.
  • The lawsuit contends that Facebook's recommendation systems amplified violent posts in Ethiopia — which has been in a state of civil war since November 2022 — including several that preceded the murder of the father of Meareg Amare Abrha, one of the researchers who brought the case.
  • Abrham Meareg, the son of Tigrayan academic Amare Abrha, said his father was targeted by a series of threatening posts because of his Tigrayan ethnicity. The posts were reported to Facebook because they contained his father's address and called for his death.
  • Meareg's father was eventually murdered on Nov. 3, 2021, when a group of men followed him from his university on motorbikes and shot him twice in front of his home. The violent posts, which appeared on a page with 50K followers, weren't taken down by Facebook until long after his death.
  • Meta has responded to the suit, saying, "we employ staff with local knowledge and expertise and continue to develop our capabilities to catch violating content in the most widely spoken languages in the country, including Amharic, Oromo, Somali, and Tigrinya."
  • The case comes as Meta faces increasing criticism regarding its content moderation in countries afflicted by conflict and alleged atrocities, such as Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Cambodia. The company has acknowledged that it was "too slow" to act in Myanmar and other countries.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Meta, yet again, has blood on its hands — its lack of content moderation or sensible policy has led to the death of Meareg Amare Abrha and possibly many others. This is what happens when large Western companies fail to even attempt to understand the complexities of social conflict outside of their regions. The level of negligence Meta has shown in this case should be considered criminal, as its inability to stop the spread of violent rhetoric has directly led to increased violence and death.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though Meta certainly has work to do regarding content moderation, this is a new frontier in human history and it will take time to refine a new system. Facebook flagged Ethiopia as being at “dire” risk of violence in 2021 and put its most effective resources towards fighting hate speech and violent rhetoric. Unfortunately, Ethiopian users didn't engage with hate speech in the same way users from other regions did, so Meta had to think on the fly to adjust to this difference.

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Day 294: US Poised to Provide Advanced Missile Defense Systems, Reports Say

Facts

  • According to reports in CNN, Reuters and the Associated Press — all of whom cited three unnamed American officials on Tuesday — the US is finalizing plans to send Raytheon-made Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.
  • While a decision on sending the advanced system has reportedly been in consideration for some time, the trigger hasn't been pulled amid fears it would be seen as an escalation by Russia, as well as concerns it would require US troops in Ukraine to operate its technology. Nonetheless, the three outlets reported that an affirmative decision is expected this week.
  • Meanwhile, on Wednesday, multiple blasts were heard in Kyiv and its surrounding region, after Russia launched a renewed drone attack on the capital before daybreak. Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that all 13 drones were intercepted by missile defense systems. Nevertheless, five buildings were reportedly damaged — believed to be a result of falling debris. There were no reports of civilian casualties at this stage.
  • Further Russian attacks, using rockets, mortars, and artillery, were reported in Kherson, where one civilian was reported killed and another was injured. The regions of Sumy, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk were also attacked without reports of civilian casualties.
  • Meanwhile, pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that seven civilians were killed and four more were injured in Ukrainian attacks on the region over the past day.
  • Elsewhere, amid reports that Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin has canceled his annual State of the Nation address and press conference, a parliamentary source told Russian news agency TASS that it will likely be held in early 2023, though this hasn't been confirmed.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Zelenskyy has constantly pleaded with Western countries to provide more advanced weapons systems to help bring about an end to the war. Delivery of the Patriot missile defense system will help Ukraine defend itself from Russian aerial attacks more effectively.

Pro-Russia narrative

This move is not only about defense — it is an escalation. If the US sends Patriot missile defense systems to Kyiv, they will be considered fair game for Russian attacks, as will any personnel who are needed for their operation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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At Least 4 Dead After Migrant Boat Capsizes in English Channel

Facts

  • At least four migrants crossing the English Channel from France have died after their boat capsized off the coast of Kent, England near Dungeness. A search and rescue operation involving helicopters and lifeboats began at around 3 am Wednesday, with 43 people rescued.
  • The British Coast Guard — as well as a Royal Navy patrol boat, a French Navy Helicopter, and a French fishing boat — helped evacuate the passengers. Volunteer lifeboats were also dispatched along the Kent coastline and Dungeness.
  • More than 30 of the 43 passengers saved were rescued from the water, with temperatures reaching 1°C overnight and a yellow weather warning for ice in place across Kent. Temperatures were likely colder at sea.
  • The migrants, who were from Afghanistan, Iraq, Senegal, and India, said they had paid a trafficker in France £5k ($6.2k) for the trip. PM Rishi Sunak, who vowed on Tuesday to invest more in deterring small boats and people-smuggling, voiced "sorrow" at the "tragic loss of human life."
  • The news comes a year after 27 people died making the journey in November 2021. Despite the freezing weather, over 500 migrants have made the cross-channel trek since this past weekend alone, with a record of more than 40k total arriving from France this year.
  • A third of all migrant arrivals this year — roughly 13k — have been Albanian, with Sunak yesterday also announcing a deal with Albania to stem the flow of migrants crossing the channel from mainland Europe.

Spin

Right narrative

The only beneficiaries of this human trafficking scheme are the criminals who profit from sending migrants across dangerous waters. Illegal immigration into England doesn't benefit the migrants or the British taxpayers who bare the financial costs of housing them. Sunak's plan to end these crossings is the only viable solution.

Left narrative

While an argument can be made in favor of sending Albanians, in particular, back, Sunak's asylum system reconfiguration plan is neither sympathetic nor actionable. Ideas such as patrolling French coasts with "boots on the ground" or the failed Rwandan plan are ridiculous, and the many real asylum seekers among these arrivals deserve better than what the government has proposed so far.

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CDC Report: Long COVID Can Be Deadly

Facts

  • In a study published on Wednesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "long COVID" was cited as the cause of death for at least 3,544 Americans during the first 2.5 years of the pandemic.
  • Although this represents 0.3% of the over 1M Americans who have died from the virus, the study's findings suggest that while long COVID is correlated to long-term illness it "can be a cause of death."
  • The data showed that women are more likely to develop long COVID, but men have a higher percentage of long COVID deaths. Most documented deaths occurred in people between the ages of 75 and 84 at roughly 30%; those 85 years and older represented the second-largest death total.
  • While this report is the first attempt by the CDC to account for the death toll of long COVID, some health experts believe the results are a significant underestimation considerating that 30% of people who contract the virus report experiencing long COVID symptoms.
  • Epidemiologist Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, who didn't participate in the CDC study, said, "We're pretty good at capturing acute disease," but the medical profession has a "major, major blind spot" when it comes to anticipating long-term outcomes.
  • Some researchers expressed concern that the data doesn't account for people who suffered suicidal thoughts, suicidal acts, or suicidal ideation and completed those acts following an acute COVID infection.

Spin

Narrative A

As the world emerges from the worst of the COVID pandemic more studies will need to be conducted to better understand what the virus does to the human body and how those changes will impact the infected in both the short- and long-term. Until medical professionals fully understand the pathology of the virus and subsequent disease, we must support patients with their troubling long COVID experiences.

Narrative B

Medical experts are excited and hopeful to see the CDC studying deaths from long COVID. Now that institutions are coming on board, doctors can also be better educated on the long-term consequences. The data only shows a snapshot of the long COVID tragedy, but the profession is moving in the right direction.

Cynical narrative

"Long COVID" is just the latest chapter in the pandemic fear campaign. In fact, other reputable studies indicate long COVID may be no worse than any other post-viral syndrome. Statistics are easily manipulated, as we've seen time and again in the past three years, and this latest bout of COVID alarmism should be taken with a grain of salt.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.1M confirmed COVID deaths in the US by the end of 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Sen. Sanders Withdraws Yemen War Powers Resolution

Facts

  • US Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) withdrew his request to vote on the Yemen War Powers Resolution on Tuesday, citing White House opposition. The resolution would have forced the US government to cease its support for the war in Yemen.
  • The White House was reportedly pressuring senators to vote against the resolution, with presidential aides making it clear that Pres. Joe Biden “strongly opposed” the bill and would veto it if it made it to his desk.
  • In a statement, Sanders said he would work with the Biden admin. to reach an agreement on ending the war, and if no agreement is reached he'll "bring this resolution back for a vote in the near future and do everything possible to end this horrific conflict.”
  • This comes as the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) released a report on Monday stating that more than 11K children have been killed or maimed in Yemen's civil war since it began in late 2014.
  • In his first month as president, Biden ceased US aid for Saudi-led operations in Yemen, but the US allegedly continues to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia and share intelligence.
  • Over the past summer, a war powers resolution introduced by Sanders in the Senate and House representatives sought to end US intelligence sharing, direct military personnel, and logistical support for Saudi-led forces.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Saudi Arabia is a valuable ally, and the US must keep supporting Riyadh against the Iran-backed Houthis, who are a terrorist organization. Even though the Saudis have met some of the Houthis’ demands, the rebels won’t let up, leaving the Saudis with no choice but to continue their efforts. Ideally, the US can help the Saudis win the war while also doing a better job of focusing on military targets and being open about any mistakes they make.

Establishment-critical narrative

The time to act to stop the inhumane suffering in Yemen is now. The Saudis and Emiratis are conducting war crimes and the Houthis' resistance is just as legitimate as the resistance in Ukraine. Biden’s previous moves to resist Saudi intervention didn't have their desired effect, and at this point, the Saudis have given him every reason to oppose their efforts strongly. US support for this proxy war must stop.

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Report: Southern Somalia May Experience Catastrophic Famine

Facts

  • In a report released Tuesday, the UN suggested that a famine declaration in Somalia has been narrowly averted due to the response of humanitarian actors and local communities. However, the still "catastrophic" situation risks tipping into famine in southern Somalia in the coming months.
  • The report suggests that 8.3M people are expected to face "crisis" or worse conditions between April-June 2023, due to "the impacts of five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks."
  • This comes as NASA has assessed that the Horn of Africa region, in general, is "experiencing the longest and most severe drought on record, threatening millions of people with starvation," with 21M people at risk of food insecurity. Human-induced warming, temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and ongoing La Niña conditions are cited as factors.
  • The report suggests that the most probable scenario will see more than 700K people enter famine conditions — including in the Bay region, the town of Baidoa, and Mogadishu. However, this risk could expand to other areas if a sixth-straight rainy season fails.
  • The prospect of a potential famine declaration has been viewed as a politically-charged process for months, with Somali Pres. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reportedly concerned that such a declaration may reroute development money and potentially hamper development, investment, and conflict resolution efforts to curb al-Shabaab and ongoing violence.
  • This comes as the so-called "Grain from Ukraine" initiative has begun shipments to the region to address food insecurity. A vessel with 25K tons of wheat is being prepared to transit to Somalia per Ukraine's embassy in Ethiopia.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The generosity of the international humanitarian community and the UN system is all that has kept Somalia from temporarily slipping into a catastrophic famine. If a full-court press of aid isn't scaled up, early next year could be a nightmare. In a world with an unstable climate, a sixth-straight failure of the rainy season will cause mass suffering — we can and must ensure that food security is a sustained reality.

Establishment-critical narrative

Hot-button issues like famine declarations are always part of a complex political tapestry. The current Somali government is worried that a formal famine declaration may prompt unstable rural-to-urban migration, play into the hands of al -Shabaab, and divert international funds away from investment, development, health care, education, and climate resilience. While the global community needs to address food insecurity, it must sensitively support the holistic needs of Somalia also.

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Fla. Gov. DeSantis Calls For Grand Jury on COVID Vaccines

Facts

  • On Tuesday, Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis announced he would request that the state Supreme Court convene a grand jury to investigate potential wrongdoings related to COVID vaccines.
  • DeSantis, who is seen as a favorite for the 2024 Republican nomination for president, made the announcement after attending a roundtable with Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo and other physicians and scientists who are concerned about the vaccines, their manufacturers, and the CDC's guidelines related to the jabs.
  • Vaccine studies by the manufacturers have been published in peer-reviewed journals, and government panels have reviewed the data related to the safety and effectiveness of the jabs, but DeSantis said he also wants access to the data.
  • Research from organizations like the National Institute of Health (NIH) has looked into cases where the vaccines might have caused some of the symptoms associated with long COVID, but in general, the CDC has provided data showing "low rates of medical care after vaccination.”
  • In the same announcement, DeSantis unveiled plans to create a state committee to review federal health recommendations, which will be chaired by Ladapo.

Spin

Republican narrative

It’s time to hold manufacturers and public officials accountable for any misleading claims they have made about vaccines, such as Biden's false assertion that they would stop the contraction and transmission of the virus. The public needs to see what the data says about health risks — especially heart problems — related to the jab and not just take the manufacturers' words at face value.

Democratic narrative

This is nothing more than a political ploy as DeSantis attempts to solidify his road to the 2024 nomination. Plenty of independent, peer-reviewed studies show that not only are severe post-jab health problems extremely rare but that the risk of death is greater for those who are unvaccinated. Nothing a grand jury could learn will change that.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 30% chance that Ron DeSantis will be elected President of the US by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Fed Boosts Interest Rates by Another 0.5%

Facts

  • In a slowdown after four consecutive 0.75% interest rate increases, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 0.5% rate hike on Wednesday in its continuing battle against inflation. The latest move brings the benchmark rate to a 15-year high range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
  • Central bank officials are now projecting rates to hit 5.1% next year, up from previous predictions of 4.6% when they last issued forecasts in September. They're also projecting inflation to remain high for longer than expected, with consumer prices anticipated to jump 3.1% next year and 2.5% in 2024.
  • The consensus among officials is that after reaching the peak rate of 5.1% next year, they'll wait for its impact to spread through the economy. After that, the Fed is expected to make a full percentage point cut in 2024, another in 2025, and finally settle at a neutral point of 2.5% after that.
  • The move came shortly after the release of November's jobs report, which showed a lower-than-expected 7.1% year-over-year spike in the consumer price index (CPI), including a 0.5% jump in food costs and 0.6% in shelter prices. However, energy prices saw a 1.6% dip.
  • As rate hikes have impacted the entire economy, including credit card rates, auto loans, and savings accounts, experts warn home prices could fall by as much as 20% from their recent peaks.
  • As the Fed continues to battle the still-growing job market and rising wages due to inflation, the personal savings rate fell to a nearly two-decade low of 2.3% last month, suggesting cash stashed away during the pandemic hasn't been able to compete with the rise in prices.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

In an attempt to restore its credibility and the public's trust, the Fed has foolishly decided to continue with its monetary tightening despite compelling evidence from November's job report that the central bank has successfully eased the pace of inflation — a fact the media has unsurprisingly downplayed. To compensate for its initially slow response, the Fed is now raising rates too far, which risks pushing the US economy over the ever-nearing recession finish line.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though energy prices were down in the latest CPI report, food and services costs have remained on the rise, which is why the Fed is correct in its latest rate hike decision. As wages increase in a market still waiting to fill 10M jobs, hopes for a rate decrease any time soon should be quelled as employers are still catching up with current inflation. While painful, fighting inflation now will allow the US to return to normal sooner.

Cynical narrative

Though the Fed has done a good job so far, there's a potentially dreadful scenario due to US policy's effects on the global economy. With Europe likely to face a harsher economic downturn, international players may call on the US central bank to bring rates down to help their economies breathe, which would let domestic inflation loose again and ruin all the progress the US has made. Chairman Powell must be cognizant of these possibilities.

Nerd narrative

There's a 35% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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