15 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

US Senate Report: Female Inmates Sexually Abused by Prison Workers

Facts

  • A report released Tuesday by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations found that federal female prison inmates nationwide have been subjected to sexual abuse by prison guards and other officials for nearly a decade.
  • According to the report — which interviewed officials from the Federal Bureau of Prisons, alleged victims, and whistleblowers — prison workers sexually abused women in 19 out of the 29 women's federal prisons.
  • It added that the "seriously flawed" investigative procedures of the bureau’s Office of Internal Affairs led to a backlog of 8k cases with "at least hundreds" involving sexual abuse.
  • Several women testified about the alleged abuse on Tuesday, with one witness detailing the alleged abuse carried out by a captain at the federal prison in Alderson, W.Va., who has since been convicted of assaulting her and others.
  • Other high-level perpetrators, including the warden and chaplain of a California prison, were found to have abused inmates for years. The report claims the bureau only "began to institute agency-wide changes" after the California scandal "came to light."
  • In response, some within the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) have reportedly suggested releasing victims early, with Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco pushing the bureau to compile a list of inmates who could be freed under the compassionate release program.

Spin

Narrative A

Though this report may be news to the public, the epidemic of sexual abuse in female prisons has been a well-known secret within the government for a long time. Authorities at the DOJ and other agencies ignored such horrific acts for years, so it's only right that these victims be released early.

Narrative B

While atonement and accountability are undoubtedly needed, the primary response to this horrific phenomenon should be how to prevent it from happening in the first place. The good thing is we already know the cause — the imbalance of power between male guards and female inmates. Now, there must be a concerted effort to be proactive rather than reactive.

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Istanbul Mayor Sentenced for Insulting Officials

Facts

  • A Turkish court on Wednesday handed a more than 2.5-year jail sentence and a political ban to the mayor of Istanbul and key opposition politician, Ekrem İmamoğlu, on charges of insulting members of the Supreme Electoral Council.
  • The lawsuit against him was prompted by a 2019 comment by İmamoğlu to celebrate his electoral victory. He stated in a press release that "the ones who canceled the March 31 election are fools," referring to an annulled election he had also won.
  • İmamoğlu was sentenced to 2 years and 7 months in prison. He hasn't been arrested and his party will appeal; per Turkish law, he wouldn't be incarcerated but would be barred from office and political activity during this time.
  • This conviction comes six months before presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey, with İmamoğlu having been mentioned as a possible leading challenger to run against Pres. Erdoğan.
  • On Thursday, the six-party opposition National Alliance held a massive rally in Istanbul to support İmamoğlu, criticizing the decision and expressing that the opposition coalition will gather strength.
  • Recent polls have shown that İmamoğlu is among a limited group of opposition politicians who could conceivably defeat incumbent Erdoğan in June's presidential election as Turkey reels from economic stress.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This ruling demonstrates Erdoğan's efforts to use the court to rid himself of yet another possible contender in the upcoming presidential election. His regime has long used defamation and insulting charges to suppress dissent, with thousands in Turkey convicted on these charges since Erdoğan took power in 2014.

Pro-establishment narrative

The opposition's allegations that the ruling against İmamoğlu was politically motivated are absurd. No person, authority, or body can interfere in the exercise of judicial power in Turkey. This is not a final decision, and the appeals process will continue with due process.

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UK: SNP Proposes Lowering Parliament Candidacy Age to 16

Facts

  • On Wednesday, the devolved Scottish Government published proposals for the minimum age of candidates for Holyrood elections to be cut from 18 to 16, which would reportedly be the youngest minimum age for a national political candidate worldwide.
  • Scotland lowered the voting age ahead of the 2014 independence referendum. This then carried over to the 2016 Holyrood election, but the age for candidacy remained 18.
  • The consultation document acknowledged that there would be challenges with 16 and 17-year-olds running in Holyrood elections, such as "wellbeing concerns," including exposure to hate speech as well as potential implications to the candidate's education.
  • The document includes a series of other electoral reforms, such as extending candidacy rights to foreign nationals with the right to vote.
  • According to polls conducted since the UK Supreme Court rejected Scotland's right for a second independence referendum without needing the consent of Westminster in November, on average, 72% of those aged 16-24 stated they would vote to leave the UK.

Spin

Left narrative

Despite concerns, the success of the Scottish Youth Parliament is proof that a significant number of young people are already engaged in politics. There's no reason to see a 16 or year-old elected as anything but a positive force, with the voices of the future being the ones that truly matter.

Right narrative

With Scottish independence lagging, Nicola Sturgeon's desperate attempt to retain the initiative is to turn year-olds into members of the Scottish Parliament. Rather than attempting to implement meaningful policy, Sturgeon's Scottish National Party is solely driven by gaining independence and will go so far as to unleash the pressure of the debate's toxicity onto adolescents.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that Scotland will hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 295: Dozens Exchanged in Russia-Ukraine Prison Swap

Facts

  • Dozens of people, including a US citizen, were exchanged in the latest prison swap between Russia and Ukraine earlier in the week, it was revealed late on Wednesday.
  • Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential office, said the exchange included 64 Ukrainian soldiers and a US national identified as Suedi Murekezi — a Rwanda native and US Air Force veteran who went to Ukraine in 2018. The bodies of four Ukrainians were also repatriated, Yermak said.
  • Daria Morozova, a pro-Russia official from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), said 135 of its fighters were freed from Ukrainian captivity, stating that 104 had returned home while the other 31 were receiving medical treatment in the DPR and other regions of Russia.
  • Meanwhile, citing an intelligence official, Ukrainian media revealed that an unnamed priest from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate was also exchanged. In recent weeks, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) have carried out a number of raids and arrests in Moscow-linked churches in the country, accusing them of collaborating with Russian forces during the invasion.
  • Meanwhile, EU diplomats have told Reuters that they've so far failed to reach consensus on a potential ninth package of sanctions against Russia, with disagreement stemming from whether the EU should make it easier for Russian fertilizer exports to pass through European ports. Russia has repeatedly said that the easing of sanctions on Russian fertilizer exports is required for its continued participation in the Black Sea grain deal, as had been originally agreed.
  • On the ground, with no let up in fighting despite the winter conditions, Ukrainian officials said nine civilians were killed and 21 were injured in Russian attacks over the past day. They reported that two civilians were killed and four were injured in Donetsk and two were killed and one was injured in Zaporizhzhia, while five people were killed and 13 were injured in Kherson. Two people were reportedly injured in Dnipropetrovsk and one civilian injured in Kharkiv.
  • Meanwhile, DPR officials said five civilians were killed and 14 were injured in Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk over the same time period. Ukraine also launched another drone attack in Russian territory late on Wednesday, striking an airbase in the border region of Kursk.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Biden: US 'All In' on Africa's Future

Facts

  • US Pres. Biden on Wednesday told the 49 African leaders attending the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington that "the United States is 'all-in' on Africa's future."
  • Biden pledged over $15B in new commitments and deals with African nations on projects including in the sectors of sustainable energy, connectivity, finance, health, and infrastructure.
  • Washington also agreed to a memorandum of understanding with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat. When fully implemented AfCFTA will reportedly create a $3.4T continent-wide market.
  • Earlier this week, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also signaled that the Biden admin. was set to provide $55B in economic, health, and security funding over the next three years to support Africa in achieving its development goals in line with the African Union's "Agenda 2063."
  • The three-day summit, the second such event since 2014, opened Tuesday and reportedly aims to revitalize Washington's engagement with Africa amid competitors like China and Russia increasing their influence on the continent. In recent years, the EU and Turkey have also held their own respective African summits.
  • US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin on Tuesday also cautioned African leaders at a panel against alleged "destabilizing" activities by China and Russia in Africa — alleging Beijing's lack of transparency and Moscow's continued trade in "cheap weapons" and deployment of mercenaries.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though Washington pretends that it wants to close the growing trust gap between the US and Africa, the Biden admin. still sees Africa merely as a pawn in its strategic goal of competing with China and Russia. However, African leaders have long known that the US isn't concerned with cooperation for mutual benefit. Africa is unlikely to benefit from the summit in a meaningful way.

Pro-establishment narrative

Biden's influence on the US-Africa summit includes vital cooperation on economics, health, sustainability, and governance. The US is interconnected to all African nations, and this forum is an opportunity to enhance a deep partnership for years to come.

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Nurses Hold Biggest Strike in NHS History

Facts

  • Thousands of UK National Health Service (NHS) nurses in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland on Thursday held the first of two day-long walkouts, with the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) demanding a 19% pay raise and for the record number of staff vacancies to be filled.
  • Calls for a 19% pay bump — 5% above retail inflation — come after, when adjusted for inflation, nurses' pay dropped 1.2% every year between 2010 and 2017, according to the Health Foundation charity. For the first three of those years, their pay was frozen.
  • Up to 100k nurses are estimated to join the strikes, each day of which will last for 12 hours. The RCN said the areas that will be "exempt from the strike action" include chemotherapy, dialysis, pediatric A&E, intensive care and high dependency, and neonatal and pediatric intensive care.
  • The services likely to be most impacted include routine operations, such as knee and hip replacements, with health minister Maria Caulfield saying roughly 70k procedures in England will be delayed and thousands more in Northern Ireland and Wales.
  • While Sec. of Health Steve Barclay claims the pay rise is "not affordable," he said he's willing to discuss "a wide range of issues" outside of pay. Nevertheless, the strikes may worsen. Ambulance workers are set to strike next week, and the nurse union is mandating strikes through May. Junior doctors are also likely to join by February.
  • Another union, the GMB in Scotland, also voted Wednesday to reject an improved NHS pay deal from the Scottish government. The next nurse walkout is scheduled for Dec. 20.

Spin

Right narrative

This is highly reminiscent of the strikes of 1979, which saw much of the country brought to a standstill. The only difference is Margaret Thatcher was elected that year to quash the union dominance and restore order. Though the pay concerns of nurses are understandable, a minimum level of service must be maintained when it comes to essential sectors. Sunak needs to put his foot down.

Left narrative

If Sunak sees himself as the successor to Margaret Thatcher, he should be reminded that she agreed to a 25% pay raise with trade unions in 1979. While private sector pay has grown 7% annually, public sector workers like nurses have received a dismal 2% average, dangerously below the inflation rate. Thatcher was a realist who understood the impact the public sector has on the wider economy, and Sunak should realize the same.

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US House Approves Puerto Rico Referendum Bill

Facts

  • On Thursday, the US House voted 233-191 to approve a bill that will allow Puerto Rico — a US territory — to hold its first-ever binding referendum to determine the governmental status of the island.
  • The bill gives Puerto Ricans three options for consideration: statehood, independence, or independence with free association with the US.
  • Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) and Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González-Colón (R-Puerto Rico) struck a deal to bring the bill to a full House vote with outgoing Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) leading the way in negotiations.
  • The bill now moves to the divided Senate, where it will need 60 votes and Pres. Biden’s signature to take effect. With a full schedule and Congress set to reconvene with a Republican-controlled House on Jan. 3, many speculate the chances of the bill passing are slim.
  • Meanwhile, Republicans allege that Democrats are trying to rush the legislation in the final days of the current Democrat-controlled Congress, arguing that the bill would fund Puerto Rico’s statehood or sovereignty without Puerto Ricans paying taxes.
  • Puerto Rico — which has a population of approximately 3.3M — became a US territory in 1898. There have been six referendums on the island's status since the 1960s, but they were invalid as only Congress can grant statehood.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Puerto Ricans must be given the right to determine their future. The island has been under US colonial rule for over 100 years — stuck in limbo with neither independence nor statehood, and it's time this changes. While this bill is a step in the right direction, it likely won't be the deciding factor in this debate, which is why the US must commit to a status change one way or another.

Republican narrative

Thankfully, this bill has little to no chance of passing in the Senate, but it's still important to note the true sentiment behind the push to get it through Congress. Under the guise of acting in Puerto Ricans' best interests, the power-hungry Democrats are looking to buy favor and are willing to go as far as creating an entirely new voting block to do so.

Nerd narrative

There's a 39% chance that Puerto Rico will become a US State by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US House Report Alleges COVID Intelligence Missteps

Facts

  • A newly declassified report by Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee alleges that the US intelligence community missed the opportunity to better understand COVID by not spying on Chinese health professionals more quickly when it knew the PRC was reportedly hiding valuable information.
  • Other findings from the report suggested that intelligence agencies haven't made changes to their protocols regarding advance warnings of new global health crises, including novel diseases.
  • The CIA and other spy agencies were partially absolved by the report because they were able to raise the warning of a looming pandemic before the WHO made that declaration about COVID on Mar. 11, 2020.
  • The report also pushes back against claims from then-Pres. Trump that the intelligence community was reporting on the outbreak as “nonthreatening” or “matter of fact.” The difference between what intelligence was reporting and what Trump was saying was “striking,” according to the report.
  • Republicans on the committee released a separate report that focused on COVID’s origins and how the intelligence community investigated them — concluding that the intelligence community didn’t look closely enough at a possible link between the virus and potential biological weapons research by China.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump’s deliberate efforts to undermine the US response to COVID were already part of the public record, but these reports are vital for stressing how badly he bungled the pandemic. The Trump admin. mischaracterized pandemic intelligence for political reasons and tried to pressure health officials into authorizing discredited treatments. These findings are extremely concerning.

Republican narrative

The Democrats' report is Monday morning quarterbacking, but what’s important now is what committee Republicans have discovered about obstruction from US intelligence agencies regarding COVID origins. If we’re going to prevent another pandemic, and possibly hold someone accountable for the COVID outbreak, we can’t rule out the lab-leak theory, which is the real bombshell that needs scrutiny here.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that COVID-19 will be eradicated by June 2082, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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UN Expels Iran from Women’s Rights Body

Facts

  • Following a US resolution last month, Iran was removed from the UN Commission on the Status of Women (UNCSW) on Wednesday due to its alleged “systematic oppression” of women and its violent crackdown on street protests in response to the death of Mahsa Amini. She died in September while in police custody for "improperly" wearing a hijab.
  • Of the 53 members of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), 29 voted to expel Iran from the UNCSW, with eight countries voting against and 16 abstaining.
  • Prior to the vote, the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said Iran's membership put an “ugly stain” on the commission’s credibility, as the country has been experiencing intense protests since September.
  • Among the eight "no" votes were China, Russia, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman and Zimbabwe.
  • Iran, as well as 17 other states and the Palestinians, in a letter to ECOSOC urged members on Monday to vote "no" to avoid a "new trend for expelling sovereign and rightfully-elected States from any given body of the international system, if ever perceived as inconvenient."
  • The UNCSW, which was established in 1946, meets annually in March at UN HQ in New York and has shaped global standards on gender equality, reportedly being the biggest gathering of gender equality advocates in the world.

Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

Removing Iran from the UNCSW is the bare minimum the international community can do to show solidarity with the brave protesters in Iran. As the regime in Tehran butchers demonstrators in the streets, the US has sent a clear message that this repression will not stand. The US still must do more to support young Iranians in their struggle with this tyrannical regime.

Pro-Iran narrative

Yet again, the West demonstrates its double standards regarding Iran and its contempt for cultures different than its own. The decision to remove Iran from the UNCSW was nothing more than a political stunt to fan the flames of sedition within Iran. The US has supported so much violence against the Islamic Republic since its inception in 1979, even providing Iraq with chemical weapons, so this time is no different.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by October 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Ga. Sec. of State Calls for End to Runoffs

Facts

  • Georgia Republican Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger called for the state’s legislature to end election runoffs, noting that Georgia is one of the last states that holds a general election runoff.
  • This comes a week after the state's Senate runoff, which saw Sen. Raphael Warnock secure reelection. Georgia has held three hotly contested runoffs in the past two years that garnered national attention.
  • Louisiana is the only other state with a general election runoff. Other states – except Maine and Alaska, which feature ranked-choice voting – allow a winner to prevail with just a plurality of the vote.
  • A law implemented two years ago shortened the time between the general election and runoff to four weeks. But Raffensperger says that interferes with workers’ holiday time and burdens counties who already struggle to complete all election-related deadlines.
  • There are several alternatives to the runoff system, including ranked-choice voting, lowering the threshold to trigger a runoff from a majority to a plurality, and eliminating ballot access to third-party candidates.
  • The Republican-controlled Georgia General Assembly convenes in January, which is when it will reportedly discuss its options.

Spin

Republican narrative

The runoffs are a Democratic relic that dates back to when state Rep. Denmark Grover tried to rig the system after he lost his reelection race. There’s no reason why the candidate who gets the most votes can't be declared the winner in a general election without putting the state’s election workers through the grind of managing a runoff, especially when it falls just after Thanksgiving.

Democratic narrative

Groover was a Democrat from a different time, and he blamed Black voters for his loss. He admitted he invented the runoff system to suppress the Black vote. So there's no question Georgia should get rid of it. But rather than focusing on disrupted holiday times — ironically the result of a Republican law — there should be collective recognition of how this system hurt marginalized communities.

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