22 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

Fiji's Military Called in After Disputed Election

Facts

  • On Thursday, the Fiji Police requested military assistance to maintain security and stability in the country due to alleged threats against minority groups, just over a week after outgoing PM Frank Bainimarama lost power in a general election.
  • The decision was reportedly made after police and military leaders met with Bainimarama, who has refused to concede defeat. On Wednesday, his FijiFirst party's general secretary stressed he remained as incumbent PM and cast doubt on the validity of the internal voting in the kingmaking Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA).
  • This comes as SODELPA leaders narrowly decided by 16-14 to back opposition leader Sitiveni Rabuka instead of Bainimarama, forming a tripartite coalition with the People's Alliance party and the National Federation party.
  • Outgoing Bainimarama has served since a 2006 coup, while Rabuka previously served after a 1987 coup before being voted out in 1999. Bainimarama has won two elections since taking power, legitimizing his rule.
  • The island nation has endured four coups since 1987, mostly stemming from tensions between the Fijian and large Indian minority population. The constitution was amended in 2013 to remove a race-based electoral system that favored ethnic Fijians, opening the door to free elections.
  • The third election since the 2013 constitutional reforms reintroduced democracy was marred by voting irregularities and allegations of fraud. Five political parties called for recounts after election night anomalies, and Rabuka was questioned by police after calling for military intervention.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite allegations of electoral fraud, Fijians have much to celebrate as they are looking at the first peaceful transfer of power in their history. Political parties working together for change reflects the will of the people, and this new government will be a momentous occasion for Fijians. It's time to close the book on the tumult and disrespect for the rule of law that has colored politics on this island for too long, put differences aside, and move the nation forward.

Establishment-critical narrative

The reintroduction of democracy should be lauded, but it also opens the door to new causes of strife in the nation. Rabuka and his coalition partners have ethno-nationalist tendencies that could tear open ethnic fault lines in the country. There are reasons to be optimistic, but a transition to democracy is no easy task. It remains to be seen if the former coup leader has the respect for democracy that he claims.

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UN Resolution Calls For Peace In Myanmar

Facts

  • On Wednesday, the UN Security Council (UNSC) demanded Myanmar stop the widespread violence in the country and urged the military junta to free "political prisoners" while expressing support for a peace process implemented by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
  • The British-proposed resolution, which also requested that the Secretary-General or his Special Envoy on Myanmar provide an oral report to the body by March 2023, was approved in the 15-member body by a vote of 12-0, with China, India, and Russia abstaining.
  • This comes almost two years after Myanmar's military took over the country, overthrowing the democratically elected government and arresting civilian leaders such as the deposed State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and former President Win Myint.
  • Since then, the military junta has cracked down on protests and dissent with lethal force while the opposition has militarized, launching an armed campaign against the government. At least 2.4K people have reportedly died, and more than 16K have been jailed, with 13K still detained.
  • The first-ever resolution on Myanmar adopted by the UNSC since the country joined the UN in 1948 allegedly paves the way for holding the military junta accountable but is reportedly "without consequences," as no action has been authorized against the regime.
  • This also marks a moment of relative unity in the UNSC, which has been mired in divisions — especially since the start of the war in Ukraine — as Beijing and Moscow opted not to veto the resolution following amendments to the wording.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This resolution risks botching efforts to promote peace in Myanmar both due to its format and content, as it lacks balance and risks antagonizing the junta. There's no quick fix to the Myanmar conflict, and pressuring for an overnight solution can only prolong the crisis, as the Libya issue has shown.

Pro-establishment narrative

This historic resolution makes it clear to Myanmar's military junta that the international community will not tolerate human rights abuses against the people of Myanmar and the destruction of the country's democratic institutions. It also endorses ASEAN's central role in solving this crisis and supports its 2021 five-point consensus to restore peace and stability to the country.

Narrative C

This resolution indeed lacks any substantive action to stop the military junta from committing atrocities against Myanmar's people because China and Russia have taken the UNSC hostage, favoring their junta allies and trade partners. UN member states must take action and impose a global arms embargo and targeted sanctions against the terrorist military regime.

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Israel: Netanyahu Announces Formation of New Govt

Facts

  • Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday told Israeli Pres. Isaac Herzog that he has succeeded in forming a new government. The announcement signals the return to power of Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister at the helm of what is reportedly the most far-right coalition in Israel's history.
  • Netanyahu's announcement came minutes before a midnight Wednesday deadline and followed weeks of negotiations with far-right coalition partners. The PM-designate was unseated in January 2021 over corruption investigations, but his coalition won 64 seats in Israel's 120-member parliament, the Knesset, after Israelis cast ballots on Nov. 1 for the fifth time in four years.
  • The coalition government will be comprised of Netanyahu's Likud party, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism [UTJ], and the far-right factions Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionists Party [RZP], and Noam. The new cabinet is due to be sworn in by Jan. 2.
  • The new government's composition and reported plans to give parliament greater powers that could allow it to overrule court rulings have raised concerns both in Israel and abroad, with critics viewing it as a possible blow to the judiciary's independence.
  • Netanyahu's coalition partners are also said to oppose the idea of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while the leader of the Religious Zionism party advocated the annexation of the West Bank, which Israel occupied along with East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 war.
  • Meanwhile, Netanyahu's agreement to hand over control of parts of the military bureaucracy and security forces in the West Bank to far-right allies is said to have already created tensions with the Israeli military, whose chief of staff expressed fears that the move would disrupt the army's chain of command.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

To stay in power, corruption-plagued Netanyahu has bowed to the demands of the most extreme elements of Israeli politics. His concessions to ultra-Orthodox and ultra-nationalist parties are a massive blow to Israeli democracy, the rule of law, and thus to the future of Israel. Moreover, by rejecting the two-state solution, the new government is poised to risk fresh Arab-Israeli violence. It's time for Washington to end its ambiguity about Israel and stand up for democracy, as it otherwise does all over the world.

Pro-establishment narrative

Even before the new Israeli government is sworn in, media activists have warned that it poses a threat to Israeli democracy. However, these critics ignore the fact that Israel remains the only democracy in the Middle East and that it was the Israelis who wished Netanyahu back in power. Washington should think twice before joining the doomsayers' camp and alienating its closest ally in the region. Instead of jumping to conclusions and demonizing the coalition government, the actual political work should be evaluated as it happens.

Narrative C

Even if everyone seems to agree that Netanyahu would do anything to stay in power and out of prison, the coalition is ultimately an expression of the voters' will. One thing is certain Given the negative tendencies in Israeli politics, "Bibi" is the last hope for the survival of liberal Israeli democracy. Now he will have to prove whether he is up to the historic task of keeping Israel from turning into an apartheid state.

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FTX Associates Plead Guilty to Fraud

Facts

  • On Wednesday, Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, and Gary Wang, co-founder of crypto exchange FTX, pleaded guilty to several charges, including wire fraud, securities fraud, and commodities fraud.
  • Both Ellison — whose charges collectively carry a maximum prison sentence of 110 years — and Wang — facing up to 50 years — struck a plea deal with the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) earlier this week.
  • As part of the plea deals, Ellison and Wang must fully cooperate with investigators, providing them with documents and records and testifying when asked. The government, in turn, will request the judge give them lesser sentences.
  • The surprise guilty pleas came as FTX co-founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was extradited from the Bahamas by US law enforcement to answer charges tied to his role in the company’s collapse.
  • Last week, Bankman-Fried was arrested at his home in the Bahamas at the request of the US. He has been charged with defrauding customers and investors, money laundering, and making illegal political campaign contributions. Regulators are also investigating him for fraud.
  • Ellison and Wang aren't the first to flip on their former boss. Top FTX executive Ryan Salame reportedly told securities regulators in the Bahamas last month that FTX was transferring customers' assets to Alameda to cover the hedge fund's losses.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

According to the government's account, Bankman-Fried's corruption was baked into FTX's processes from the very start of its operation. Whether he was dishonest, deluded, or both, the US government is rightfully conducting the most thorough investigation and prosecution of this fraudulent crypto billionaire.

Establishment-critical narrative

Both Bankman-Fried and Ryan Salame donated tens of millions to establishment Republican and Democratic politicians and campaign committees. There's a reason for the silence on this issue from both sides of the aisle in Washington; the collapse of FTX exposed the dirty US campaign finance underworld, and the hushed tone from the political elite tells it all.

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Day 302: In US Trip, Zelenskyy Invokes Fight Against Nazi Germany

Facts

  • In a whirlwind trip to Washington lasting less than 10 hours on Wednesday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with counterpart Joe Biden, addressed a joint session of Congress and held individual meetings with senators and members of Congress as he sought to galvanize further US support for Ukraine.
  • The visit came as the US approved a further $1.85B in assistance for Ukraine, but was scrambling to approve a $1.7T omnibus spending bill to avoid a government shutdown that will include an extra $45B for the war-torn country — a move opposed by some Republican senators.
  • In trying to unite senators, Zelenskyy thanked "every American" for the support already provided and said "your money is not charity," but rather "an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way." He also invoked a US victory in the Battle of the Bulge, a turning point against Nazi Germany in World War II.
  • Responding to reports of additional funding for Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov labelled the expansion of Western weapon supplies to the country as "an aggravation of the conflict and, in fact, does not bode well for Ukraine."
  • Meanwhile, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, in a joint press conference with his defense minister and the army's chief of staff, pledged to "develop our armed forces and strengthen the capability of our troops." Putin approved measures to change the draft age from those between 18-27 to 21-30, as well as forming new units to increase the size of its armed forces to 1.5M.
  • On the ground, Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk killed two civilians and injured 10 others in the past day, pro-Russia officials said. Among those injured were Dmitry Rogozin — a former deputy PM of Russia who also led its Roscosmos space agency — as well as Vitaliy Khotsenko, the prime minister of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
  • In Russian attacks, one civilian was killed and six more were injured in Kherson while three people were injured in attacks on Donetsk. Three people were reported injured in Mykolaiv while two additional injuries were reported in Kharkiv.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Continued US financial and military support to Ukraine is essential for it to keep staving off Russian aggression and to ultimately secure Ukraine’s sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity.

Pro-Russia narrative

Despite repeated Russian warnings, the US is continuing to escalate the conflict with its delivery of funds and advanced weaponry. This is increasingly raising the prospects of a wider escalation with unpredictable consequences.

Cynical narrative

Multi-billion dollar weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that NATO will declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: IRS Delayed Trump Tax Audits

Facts

  • Following a congressional report that found the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) failed to inspect former Pres. Donald Trump's tax returns until Democrats pressed for their release, the agency's mandatory audit of presidents' and vice presidents' taxes has come under scrutiny.
  • The three-point policy states that individual returns for the president and VP should be filed in an orange folder, kept away from the eyes of IRS agents, and securely locked away when not being reviewed by an examiner.
  • According to the report released by the Democrat-led House Ways and Means Committee, the process, which dates to 1977, was "dormant, at best" during the Trump administration.
  • The report also notes that the IRS only started auditing Trump's 2016 taxes on April 3, 2019, more than two years into his presidency and just months after the Democrats took control of the House.
  • This issue highlights the so-called tax gap — the difference between how much money has been paid to the IRS and how much is owed. Agency data estimates that the gap between 2017 and 2019 stands at $540B per year.
  • The report argued that more well-trained agents, forensic experts, tax attorneys, and others were needed to audit presidential taxes as complicated as Trump's. Many Republicans are wary of giving additional resources to the agency.

Spin

Democratic narrative

It seems Trump wasn’t lying when he said he was under audit during the 2016 election. But while some thought he was hiding nefarious tax evasion – which he still may be guilty of, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars – he was actually afraid of his less-than-masterful business skills being revealed. The IRS is also at fault here, and it's time the agency rebuilds itself to finally go after the rich and powerful.

Pro-Trump narrative

This report isn't about holding the IRS or the wealthy accountable, it's about Democrats taking one more baseless jab at nailing Trump before they're out of power in less than two weeks. This is also an attempt to codify the release of any and all public officials' taxes in the future, creating a weapon against political opponents, and dissolving the separation of powers between Congress and the White House.

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Asia's Meth Kingpin Extradited to Australia

Facts

  • On Thursday, Australian police said that Tse Chi Lop — Asia's most-wanted meth kingpin — had arrived in Australia to face "conspiracy to traffic commercial quantities of controlled drugs" charges following a legal battle with Dutch authorities.
  • He will remain in custody until his next court appearance in February 2023. Lop, a Chinese-born Canadian citizen, made no application for bail, but his lawyers say he will contest the charges.
  • Lop allegedly ran a multibillion-dollar crime syndicate known as "Sam Gor" or "The Company," laundering billions in drug money through casinos, hotels, and real estate in Southeast Asia's Mekong region.
  • The subject of an Interpol Red Notice, Lop was detained at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport in January 2021. According to the Australian Police, Sam Gor smuggled massive quantities of methamphetamine, heroin, and ketamine worth millions of dollars into Australia in packs of tea.
  • Australia's charges against Lop relate to specific operations from 2012 to 2013, where about $3M worth of methamphetamine was trafficked from Melbourne to Sydney. Lop has denied the charges.
  • Lop, dubbed Asia's "El Chapo" in a nod to Mexican drug lord Joaquin Guzman's nickname, faces life in prison if convicted.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

High-profile transnational organized drug cartels flourish in the Golden Triangle — the border region between Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos — under the control of competing warlords, drug traders, and militias. Tse Chi Lop's arrest is unlikely to affect the drug trafficking business in Southeast Asia until governments effectively implement political solutions to the region's decades-long civil war. It's a tall order, but if they don't, another Tse Chi Lop will soon rise and likely be harder to catch the next time.

Pro-establishment narrative

There's no evidence there are drug kingpins or any significant triad involvement in the drug trade in Southeast Asia. If Tse Chi Lop were Asia’s El Chapo, the high-profile criminal would not have allowed himself to get caught in the public glare. Drug production in the Golden Triangle would have also suffered blows after his arrest. Since none of that happened, reports about drug kingpins and the massive flow of drugs in Southeast Asia are questionable.

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COVID in China: WHO Chief ‘Very Concerned’

Facts

  • Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the UN agency is “very concerned” about reports of severe COVID cases across China after the country veered sharply away from its long-standing “zero-COVID” policy.
  • On Wednesday, in the PRC's latest COVID report, no new fatalities were noted despite nationwide reporting of overloaded medical facilities, crematoriums, and long lines of hearses. Since the onset of the pandemic three years ago, China has reported only 5,241 COVID deaths — a very low count when compared to other less populated countries.
  • A Chinese health official stated that throughout the pandemic China has only counted deaths occurring from pneumonia or respiratory failure in its official death toll. The tally does not include the deaths of patients with pre-existing conditions; this narrow definition limits the number of deaths being reported.
  • A Chinese respiratory expert, through the state media source Global Times, said that an increase in deaths may occur in the coming weeks resulting from a spike in cases forecasted to occur in Beijing.
  • Following an outbreak in Shanghai earlier this year, many elderly residents that tested positive for the disease and subsequently died were not counted in the city's official death tally. The deceased's family members said that if they had an underlying condition their cause of death was attributed to the condition and not to COVID.
  • China implemented strict COVID policies shortly after the pandemic began, but has recently eased "zero-COVID." In addition, China has declined to authorize Western-manufactured mRNA vaccines.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

Though the Western media initially praised China's response to the pandemic, the numbers it reported were simply lies. Now, China has almost completely lifted restrictions, and cases of the virus have exploded. The Chinese Communist Party is betting they will be more successful at obfuscating the number of lives lost than they were in keeping people locked down with draconian measures.

Pro-China narrative

China is doing the best it can regarding COVID as the PRC tries to balance economic realities, public health, and societal pressures. China has been the world's premier partner in dealing with the pandemic, and it will continue to respond to new COVID-related challenges. There is no need for the international community to worry about this recent COVID surge in China — Beijing will safeguard both health and the economy.

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Report: US Life Expectancy Lowest in 25 Years

Facts

  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported on Thursday that the US has reached its lowest life expectancy since 1996, with an increase in death rate of 5.3% between 2020 and 2021.
  • COVID-related deaths had the largest death rate increase, followed closely by accidental injuries, which include overdoses. Deaths caused by liver disease, kidney disease, strokes, and heart disease increased as well.
  • Life expectancy for American-born people now sits at 76.4 years and is down 2.4 years from 78.8 years in 2019. This is a vast divergence from 20 years of steadily increasing life expectancy in the US.
  • Mortality rates rose for every age demographic except for infants younger than one. The largest increase in mortality rates were among those ages 35 to 44, the group most affected by overdoses.
  • Nearly 107k Americans died of drug overdoses in 2021 according to the CDC’s final figures. The number of overdose deaths increased by 16% in 2021, up from 92k in 2020, continuing an increasing trend over the past few years.
  • The trend of increasing overdose deaths is part of a wider cause for concern as life expectancy in the US decreased for the second consecutive year. Adjusting for age, drug overdoses are up over 50% since 2020.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

COVID, the leading cause of reduced life expectancy in the US, has brought devastation upon the nation and the entire world. Americans have sacrificed for over two years as they battle the global pandemic, and it's disheartening to see its effects. However, with advances in science and resilience, the country can reverse this trend.

Establishment-critical narrative

Politicians may choose to focus on COVID deaths, but the real concern is the increase in deaths of despair like suicide and drug overdoses. In fact, botched COVID policies — and the widespread deterioration in mental health that ensued — are even largely to blame for exacerbating the issue. The nation's leaders can no longer afford to ignore the drugs, alcohol and suicide epidemic raging within the pandemic.

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US House GOP Releases Jan. 6 Report

Facts

  • On Wednesday, five Republicans denied from serving on the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 riots at the US Capitol released their own 141-page report that focuses on alleged security failures.
  • The report claims that administrative mismanagement — including an alleged delayed deployment of the National Guard — and "political pressures" from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) left the Capitol Police unprepared.
  • Released days after the Jan. 6 committee unveiled an executive summary of its findings and voted unanimously to refer former Pres. Donald Trump to the Justice Dept. on four criminal charges, the GOP report also accused House Speaker Pelosi (D-Calif.) of impeding security response at Capitol.
  • It also claims the incoming head of security for the Capitol complex changed protocol so that analysts no longer conducted proactive social media searches, arguing this left police leadership unaware of many of the threats circulating online.
  • Pelosi has previously denied allegations that she or her office failed to address alleged threats prior to the Jan. 6 riots or prevented the National Guard from deploying.
  • The Republican lawmakers also recommended reforming the US Capitol Police Board and improving Congressional oversights of the Capitol Police – ideas that have had bipartisan support in the past.

Spin

Republican narrative

Not long after Democratic leadership complained about police trying to stop racial riots in the summer of 2020, Democrats once again paved the way for more violence by leaving the Capitol Police ill-prepared for predictable riots at the Capitol. Pelosi's claim that she wasn't in charge that day is false, as the Sergeant at Arms clearly deferred to her and her staff when deciding not to secure the complex.

Democratic narrative

The GOP report is nothing more than a distraction as those truly responsible for the violence of Jan. 6 are held to account by the House committee, law enforcement, and other government agencies. Many communications and security leaders in the government were complicit or willfully ignorant of what was going on, but they, just like Trump, will face repercussions.

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