26 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

China Holds Drills Around Taiwan

Facts

  • On Sunday, China's Eastern Theater Command confirmed that it conducted joint combat alert patrols and joint fire strike exercises in the sea and airspace around Taiwan in what it deemed a "resolute response" to alleged US-Taiwan collusion and provocation.
  • On Monday, Taipei reported that 71 Chinese aircraft, including fighter jets and drones, entered its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) between 6 a.m. Sunday and 6 a.m. Monday, allegedly the largest incursion to date.
  • The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said in a statement that 47 Chinese planes were detected crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, adding that Beijing also deployed seven ships to areas around the island.
  • The incursions, which followed naval exercises by a Chinese aircraft carrier group close to Japan, were reportedly made by 42 fighter jets, two maritime patrol aircraft, an early warning aircraft, and two military drones.
  • This comes as US Pres. Joe Biden signed the US National Defense Authorization Act for FY2023 on Friday, which promises to provide Taiwan with $10B in military aid and $2B in military loans within five years, marking the first time it will finance weapons for the island.
  • Tensions between China and the US over the self-ruled island that Beijing views as part of its national territory have ramped up this year, especially following a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

Despite having never controlled Taiwan, these latest drills show that Beijing is resolute in resorting to aggressive military pressure tactics to resolve differences and annex the self-ruled democratic country. Under such circumstances, Taiwan and the US must strengthen their cooperation to deter Chinese aggression and ensure a free, open, peaceful, and stable Indo-Pacific region.

Pro-China narrative

This latest exercise is a direct result of US provocation. As Washington continues to escalate its collusion with Taiwan in its latest defense act, Beijing had to demonstrate it will take any necessary measures to protect its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. If Washington doesn't want to trigger a military confrontation, it should respect the one-China principle and refrain from undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Nepal: Maoist Leader Emerges As New PM

Facts

  • Former Maoist guerrilla leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal — better known by his nom de guerre "Prachanda" — was sworn in as prime minister of Nepal on Monday. His Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) finished third in the November elections, which resulted in a hung parliament.
  • The announcement came hours after Prachanda walked out of the Nepali Congress party's Sher Bahadur Deuba-led ruling alliance and joined a coalition with the opposition communist Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party and five other smaller groups.
  • Though Nepali Congress remains the largest party in the 275-member parliament with 89 seats, it has failed to reach the 138-majority threshold needed to form the new government and its leader Deuba refused to back Prachanda, whose party won 32 seats.
  • According to local media, the coalition has agreed that Prachanda will serve for the first half of the five-year term, stepping down in 2025 to make way for the UML, which controls 78 seats, to take over the office.
  • Prachanda led the Maoist insurgency from 1996 to 2006, which claimed the lives of over 17K people and led to the abolition of the country's 239-year-old monarchy in 2008. He served as prime minister for two year-long terms from 2008 to 2009 and 2016 to 2017.
  • Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif, India's PM Narendra Modi, the spokesman for the Chinese Embassy, and US Ambassador Dean R. Thompson congratulated Prachanda on being appointed as the 44th prime minister of Nepal, with the latter praising the country's democratic traditions.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

This is clearly the result of Chinese meddling. Beijing has finally put into practice its years-old plans to push all of Nepal's communist parties together to form the next government. This move has kept the more India-friendly Nepali Congress out of power and is likely to favor Chinese geopolitical interests.

Pro-China narrative

Nepal's relations with either neighbor won't be affected by this election, as major parties have all been clear that Kathmandu must maintain good relationships with both the PRC and India. Nevertheless friendship with Beijing mean tangible benefits to Nepalis, including high-quality cooperation in investment, infrastructure, and other areas.

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Day 306: Putin Reiterates Readiness for Ukraine Negotiations

Facts

  • Echoing comments made last week, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin said he is ready to hold negotiations to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. He alleged it was his opponents that've in fact refused to take the issue seriously.
  • In an interview with Russia's state broadcaster Rossiya 1 that aired on Sunday, Putin said: "We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them — we are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are."
  • Despite his remarks, US and Ukrainian officials claimed Putin's comments were insincere and that he was attempting to buy time amid battlefield failures. On Twitter, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian Pres., said: "Russia doesn’t want negotiations, but tries to avoid responsibility."
  • Meanwhile on Monday, Russia's defense ministry said it shot down a drone that targeted the Engels airfield deep within its borders — roughly 370 miles (600 km) northeast of Ukraine. It said three service members were killed after the downed drone caused a large explosion and fire. It was the second time the airfield was attacked this month after an earlier attack on Dec. 5.
  • In Russian attacks over the past day, strikes and shelling were recorded in the regions of Sumy, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian officials said two civilians were injured in Donetsk while one person was injured in each of Kharkiv and Kherson.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite Putin's comments, Russia is being disingenuous about claims of wanting negotiations. These are ploys to buy time amid failures on the battlefield.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has repeatedly said it's open to negotiate and bring the war to an end. It's Ukraine, and their backers in the West, that are refusing to participate in this process.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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China: Rescue Continues for 18 Trapped Miners

Facts

  • Rescue efforts to free 18 trapped workers continued Sunday after a mine collapsed on Saturday in China's Yining county — approximately 60 miles from the shared border with Kazakhstan — with 40 people working inside.
  • Following the collapse, officials in the Xinjiang region deployed over 300 rescue workers, around 80 rescue vehicles, and over 400 pieces of equipment, saving 22 people. Rescuers have also completed an examination of roadway blockage, wind flow, and gas conditions of the collapsed area.
  • Lu Wei, security director of the Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal Industry, said, "At present, the location of the trapped workers has been determined and ventilation has been ensured."
  • The Ministry of Emergency Management sent a work group to the region to oversee the rescue operation. The group, along with Wei, have reported that the conditions for rescue are difficult, with Wei saying, "the rocks around the spot affected by the accident are not stable."
  • The cause of the mine collapse is still unknown.
  • China has held its position as the world's top producer of gold for the last 10 years. While mining conditions have improved over the years, accidents still occur frequently, especially in rural areas with rudimentary systems.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

While workplace safety has improved over the years, it's still a huge concern in China. Lax and inadequate regulations leave employers free to ignore their obligations, resulting in thousands of injuries and fatalities each year in the country. With many companies putting profit before safety, accidents occur in a broad range of industries, from construction to delivery drivers to mining. This will only continue as China rushes to maintain its top producer status.

Pro-China narrative

China has cracked down significantly on unsafe mining practices but some companies have, by their own accord, slipped through the cracks. Meanwhile, Beijing's commitment to workplace safety isn't without consequences, as tighter oversight has been linked to a decline in production, which not only has domestic repercussions but also global ones. Beijing, faced with having to balance safety with economic security, is right to proceed cautiously.

Cynical narrative

Europe has become an energy slave to Russia, and now the west is vulnerable to becoming a slave to China because of its mineral resources. Beijing dominates the global market with its mining output and, in 2020, produced 85% of the world's rare earth refined products. The US has fallen behind and must tread carefully.

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US: Unprecedented Winter Storm Kills Over 60

Facts

  • Beginning on Thursday before Christmas, a "once in a generation" winter storm swept across the US, killing at least 65 people as of Tuesday and leaving thousands without power and facing frigid life-threatening temperatures.
  • Buffalo, NY ground to a halt with hurricane-force winds and blowing snow that caused whiteout conditions. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced that nearly every emergency vehicle in the city was stranded on Saturday, as the National Weather Service (NWS) in Buffalo reported 43 in. of snow at the Niagara International Airport.
  • At least 40 of the deceased died in western New York, primarily in Buffalo. Between Monday and Tuesday, the area was expected to see another 8-12 in. of snow.
  • Nearly 60% of the country was placed under a winter storm advisory or warning. According to FlightAware, a flight tracking site, the unprecedented weather system has wreaked havoc on domestic and international travel, forcing the cancellation of more than 1.7k flights as of Christmas morning.
  • Many states also faced significant power outages from the below-freezing temps and blizzard-like conditions on Christmas Day. The storm, described as "a major and anomalous storm" by the NWS, put more than 175k households in the dark and cold across Maine, New York, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Virginia.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned that the US power grid could face widespread and unprecedented risks this winter. While there are sufficient energy resources under normal winter conditions, large swaths of the country have been left with power systems not built for extreme cold scenarios. A strong and cohesive collaboration between industry and government will be needed to bring the regions out of the dark ages, literally.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US power grid is a massive system that is complex and a growing network requiring significant maintenance. The increase in extreme weather events due to climate change has tested the system, in some cases, beyond its capacity. Biden has been forward-leaning on the challenges, however, signing a $1T infrastructure bill to help modernize the US grid and allow for the faster restart of service when facing disaster.

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US: Migrants Dropped Off at VP Harris' Home

Facts

  • Three buses reportedly carrying around 110-130 migrants from Texas were dropped off in front of US VP Kamala Harris’ residence in Washington, DC, on Christmas Eve.
  • Authorities from Texas haven't confirmed their involvement, but the bus drop-off is similar to previous actions by border-state governors protesting "sanctuary cities" and calling attention to the Biden administration’s immigration policies as they receive a daily influx of asylum seekers.
  • The Central and South American migrants — dropped off in below-freezing temperatures — were greeted by the Migrant Solidarity Mutual Aid Network and taken to a local church, where they were given warm food and clothes.
  • Local NGOs had expected the buses' arrival, but a day later. Most of the arriving migrants are headed to other destinations and expect to remain in Washington only briefly.
  • According to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, as of last week, his office has sent more than 15k migrants since April to Washington, Chicago, New York, and Philadelphia.

Spin

Democratic narrative

While Abbott has yet to confirm his responsibility for this latest stunt, there's no question that he's behind it. Once again, the governor is employing migrants as political tools to fuel his agenda. Abandoning children and families on the side of the road in below-freezing temperatures on Christmas Eve is reckless.

Republican narrative

For far too long, woke, hypocritical politicians in blue states have declared their cities "sanctuaries" and avoided the brunt of the border crisis as their fellow border-states struggle. It's about time that they put their actions where their mouths are and start sharing the load.

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"Twitter Files": Twitter Rigged the COVID Debate

Facts

  • According to a new batch of "Twitter files" published on Monday by journalist David Zweig, the Biden admin pressured Twitter into banning users for COVID stances that didn’t align with those of the administration.
  • From ordinary users to doctors and experts, Twitter allegedly suppressed, discredited, and banned people for questioning vaccine efficacy or tweeting COVID-related information it deemed "misleading," even in cases when CDC data or peer-reviewed studies were provided. Alex Berenson was a notable target that the White House urged Twitter to ban for being an alleged "anti-vaxxer."
  • While most of the focus was on pressure from the Biden admin, according to Zweig, the Trump admin also exerted pressure on Twitter to suppress or elevate information early on in the pandemic, reportedly being particularly concerned about panic buying.
  • This comes as journalist Matt Taibbi released a separate batch of "Twitter Files" on Christmas Eve showing what he called “the FBI acting as doorman to a vast program of social media surveillance and censorship, encompassing agencies across the federal government.” According to Taibbi, the FBI inundated the platform with requests to moderate content, and went to extreme lengths to "validate theories of foreign influence."
  • Per the release, the FBI wasn’t the only agency allegedly attempting to influence Twitter, with the State Department, CIA, and Pentagon among those apparently actively coordinating with Twitter and all major social media platforms.
  • The FBI maintained that it, along with other intelligence agencies, is committed to serving and protecting the American people, and that, “It is unfortunate that conspiracy theorists and others are feeding the American public misinformation.”

Spin

Right narrative

The US government, intelligence community, and Big Tech clearly colluded behind closed doors to stifle free speech under the pretense of “stopping misinformation.” Now that the mask is off, the FBI and its co-conspirators respond by gaslighting any who dare question the Ministry of Truth.

Left narrative

Elon Musk seems to be addicted to creating controversy and misleading the public. To deflect from his botched management of Twitter, he's now trying to discredit America's intelligence agencies and fabricate nefarious ties between the FBI and social media platforms that don’t exist.

Cynical narrative

Though aspects of the Twitter Files have been productive in terms of transparency, Elon Musk is guilty of the same things he has accused companies and journalists of. The Twitter Files are not meant to advance the interests of the public, but the interests of the GOP and right-wing actors — caveat emptor.

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UN: 180 Rohingya Presumed Drowned

Facts

  • On Sunday, the United Nations expressed fears that a boat carrying about 180 Rohingya who fled camps in Bangladesh has sunk with no survivors after it went missing in the Andaman Sea, with relatives of those onboard having lost contact with them.
  • As around 200 people are already presumed dead or missing, this sinking would make 2022 the third worst year for dead and missing Rohingyas at sea in nearly a decade after 2013 and 2014, when 900 and 700 people died or went missing, respectively.
  • This comes as nearly one million Muslim-majority Rohingya from Myanmar are reportedly living in crowded facilities in Bangladesh, and the number of refugees trying to flee deteriorating conditions in camps has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
  • On Monday, at least 185 Rohingya refugees arrived in the northern Indonesia province of Aceh after weeks at sea and were taken to the village hall to receive help and be identified by immigration officials and police.
  • This was the second boat carrying Rohingyas to have landed in Aceh in the past two days, following a group of at least 57 men who spent a month adrift at sea, as the International Organization for Migration has raised alarms about boats deprived of food and water heading for Malaysia and Indonesia.
  • The United Nations' refugee agency's (UNHCR) Asia-Pacific director Indrika Ratwatte on Friday urged countries in Southeast Asia to help save lives, echoing a call made on Thursday by UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar Tom Andrews. Some 2K Rohingya are estimated to have taken the risky sea journey this year alone.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Rohingya people have desperately risked their lives crossing the ocean for years, trying to find a safe place to live after suffering human rights abuses in Myanmar. This crisis has exposed structural flaws in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as its rules made it possible for Myanmar to prevent regional powers from investigating the scale of human rights abuses and taking action to halt them.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's hypocritical to criticize solely ASEAN when Western democracies have done nothing to help the Rohingya — even though the International Court of Justice has long called for measures to protect those persecuted. While this is likely to be a consequence of fears that Myanmar would strengthen ties with Beijing if pressed, not acting to preserve the universal validity of human rights can only damage the West's reputation — the plight of the Rohingya at sea is the world's responsibility.

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S. Korea Fires Shots After Invading North Drones

Facts

  • South Korea's military deployed fighter jets, attack helicopters and fired warning shots on Monday, after it reportedly detected five North Korean drones crossing into its airspace in the morning, four of which flew around Ganghwa island and one over Seoul's northern airspace.
  • The drones were allegedly similar to unmanned aerial vehicles spotted in 2014, which first prompted concerns of espionage from the North. They reportedly flew over the country for around seven hours, with attack helicopters firing about 100 shots but failing to shoot them down.
  • There were no immediate reports of civilian casualties or damage in South Korea, but defense officials stated that a KA-1 light attack plane crashed during takeoff, stressing that both of its two pilots ejected safely.
  • This is the first time alleged North Korean drones have been caught entering South's airspace since 2017, marking another escalation in the already strained relations. It comes as the North fired two short-range ballistic missiles on Friday following a US-South Korea joint air drill some days earlier.
  • A North Korean drone with a camera was found in 2017 on a mountain in South Korea close to the border, leading Seoul to suggest that it was being used as part of a spying mission carried out by Pyongyang.
  • North Korea has conducted an unprecedented number of missile tests in 2022 and claimed in recent weeks to have carried out major tests to obtain its first spy satellite and a more mobile intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US mainland.

Spin

Republican narrative

You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China — how does he know the US won't also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with, and policies towards, North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.

Democratic narrative

Kim Jong-un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.

Libertarian narrative

The US has threatened to nuke North Korea, which has the right to defend itself. The US should stop playing 'GloboCop' and prioritize solving its domestic problems.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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