China Holds Drills Around Taiwan
On Sunday, China's Eastern Theater Command confirmed that it conducted joint combat alert patrols and joint fire strike exercises in the sea and airspace around Taiwan in what it deemed a "resolute response" to alleged US-Taiwan collusion and provocation.
On Monday, Taipei reported that 71 Chinese aircraft, including fighter jets and drones, entered its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) between 6 a.m. Sunday and 6 a.m. Monday, allegedly the largest incursion to date.
Anti-China narrative
Despite having never controlled Taiwan, these latest drills show that Beijing is resolute in resorting to aggressive military pressure tactics to resolve differences and annex the self-ruled democratic country. Under such circumstances, Taiwan and the US must strengthen their cooperation to deter Chinese aggression and ensure a free, open, peaceful, and stable Indo-Pacific region.
Pro-China narrative
This latest exercise is a direct result of US provocation. As Washington continues to escalate its collusion with Taiwan in its latest defense act, Beijing had to demonstrate it will take any necessary measures to protect its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. If Washington doesn't want to trigger a military confrontation, it should respect the one-China principle and refrain from undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nepal: Maoist Leader Emerges As New PM
Former Maoist guerrilla leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal — better known by his nom de guerre "Prachanda" — was sworn in as prime minister of Nepal on Monday. His Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) finished third in the November elections, which resulted in a hung parliament.
The announcement came hours after Prachanda walked out of the Nepali Congress party's Sher Bahadur Deuba-led ruling alliance and joined a coalition with the opposition communist Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party and five other smaller groups.
Anti-China narrative
This is clearly the result of Chinese meddling. Beijing has finally put into practice its years-old plans to push all of Nepal's communist parties together to form the next government. This move has kept the more India-friendly Nepali Congress out of power and is likely to favor Chinese geopolitical interests.
Pro-China narrative
Nepal's relations with either neighbor won't be affected by this election, as major parties have all been clear that Kathmandu must maintain good relationships with both the PRC and India. Nevertheless friendship with Beijing mean tangible benefits to Nepalis, including high-quality cooperation in investment, infrastructure, and other areas.
Day 306: Putin Reiterates Readiness for Ukraine Negotiations
Echoing comments made last week, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin said he is ready to hold negotiations to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. He alleged it was his opponents that've in fact refused to take the issue seriously.
In an interview with Russia's state broadcaster Rossiya 1 that aired on Sunday, Putin said: "We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them — we are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are."
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite Putin's comments, Russia is being disingenuous about claims of wanting negotiations. These are ploys to buy time amid failures on the battlefield.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has repeatedly said it's open to negotiate and bring the war to an end. It's Ukraine, and their backers in the West, that are refusing to participate in this process.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China: Rescue Continues for 18 Trapped Miners
Rescue efforts to free 18 trapped workers continued Sunday after a mine collapsed on Saturday in China's Yining county — approximately 60 miles from the shared border with Kazakhstan — with 40 people working inside.
Following the collapse, officials in the Xinjiang region deployed over 300 rescue workers, around 80 rescue vehicles, and over 400 pieces of equipment, saving 22 people. Rescuers have also completed an examination of roadway blockage, wind flow, and gas conditions of the collapsed area.
Anti-China narrative
While workplace safety has improved over the years, it's still a huge concern in China. Lax and inadequate regulations leave employers free to ignore their obligations, resulting in thousands of injuries and fatalities each year in the country. With many companies putting profit before safety, accidents occur in a broad range of industries, from construction to delivery drivers to mining. This will only continue as China rushes to maintain its top producer status.
Pro-China narrative
China has cracked down significantly on unsafe mining practices but some companies have, by their own accord, slipped through the cracks. Meanwhile, Beijing's commitment to workplace safety isn't without consequences, as tighter oversight has been linked to a decline in production, which not only has domestic repercussions but also global ones. Beijing, faced with having to balance safety with economic security, is right to proceed cautiously.
Cynical narrative
Europe has become an energy slave to Russia, and now the west is vulnerable to becoming a slave to China because of its mineral resources. Beijing dominates the global market with its mining output and, in 2020, produced 85% of the world's rare earth refined products. The US has fallen behind and must tread carefully.
US: Unprecedented Winter Storm Kills Over 60
Beginning on Thursday before Christmas, a "once in a generation" winter storm swept across the US, killing at least 65 people as of Tuesday and leaving thousands without power and facing frigid life-threatening temperatures.
Buffalo, NY ground to a halt with hurricane-force winds and blowing snow that caused whiteout conditions. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced that nearly every emergency vehicle in the city was stranded on Saturday, as the National Weather Service (NWS) in Buffalo reported 43 in. of snow at the Niagara International Airport.
Establishment-critical narrative
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned that the US power grid could face widespread and unprecedented risks this winter. While there are sufficient energy resources under normal winter conditions, large swaths of the country have been left with power systems not built for extreme cold scenarios. A strong and cohesive collaboration between industry and government will be needed to bring the regions out of the dark ages, literally.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US power grid is a massive system that is complex and a growing network requiring significant maintenance. The increase in extreme weather events due to climate change has tested the system, in some cases, beyond its capacity. Biden has been forward-leaning on the challenges, however, signing a $1T infrastructure bill to help modernize the US grid and allow for the faster restart of service when facing disaster.
US: Migrants Dropped Off at VP Harris' Home
Three buses reportedly carrying around 110-130 migrants from Texas were dropped off in front of US VP Kamala Harris’ residence in Washington, DC, on Christmas Eve.
Authorities from Texas haven't confirmed their involvement, but the bus drop-off is similar to previous actions by border-state governors protesting "sanctuary cities" and calling attention to the Biden administration’s immigration policies as they receive a daily influx of asylum seekers.
Democratic narrative
While Abbott has yet to confirm his responsibility for this latest stunt, there's no question that he's behind it. Once again, the governor is employing migrants as political tools to fuel his agenda. Abandoning children and families on the side of the road in below-freezing temperatures on Christmas Eve is reckless.
Republican narrative
For far too long, woke, hypocritical politicians in blue states have declared their cities "sanctuaries" and avoided the brunt of the border crisis as their fellow border-states struggle. It's about time that they put their actions where their mouths are and start sharing the load.
"Twitter Files": Twitter Rigged the COVID Debate
According to a new batch of "Twitter files" published on Monday by journalist David Zweig, the Biden admin pressured Twitter into banning users for COVID stances that didn’t align with those of the administration.
From ordinary users to doctors and experts, Twitter allegedly suppressed, discredited, and banned people for questioning vaccine efficacy or tweeting COVID-related information it deemed "misleading," even in cases when CDC data or peer-reviewed studies were provided. Alex Berenson was a notable target that the White House urged Twitter to ban for being an alleged "anti-vaxxer."
Right narrative
The US government, intelligence community, and Big Tech clearly colluded behind closed doors to stifle free speech under the pretense of “stopping misinformation.” Now that the mask is off, the FBI and its co-conspirators respond by gaslighting any who dare question the Ministry of Truth.
Left narrative
Elon Musk seems to be addicted to creating controversy and misleading the public. To deflect from his botched management of Twitter, he's now trying to discredit America's intelligence agencies and fabricate nefarious ties between the FBI and social media platforms that don’t exist.
Cynical narrative
Though aspects of the Twitter Files have been productive in terms of transparency, Elon Musk is guilty of the same things he has accused companies and journalists of. The Twitter Files are not meant to advance the interests of the public, but the interests of the GOP and right-wing actors — caveat emptor.
UN: 180 Rohingya Presumed Drowned
On Sunday, the United Nations expressed fears that a boat carrying about 180 Rohingya who fled camps in Bangladesh has sunk with no survivors after it went missing in the Andaman Sea, with relatives of those onboard having lost contact with them.
As around 200 people are already presumed dead or missing, this sinking would make 2022 the third worst year for dead and missing Rohingyas at sea in nearly a decade after 2013 and 2014, when 900 and 700 people died or went missing, respectively.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Rohingya people have desperately risked their lives crossing the ocean for years, trying to find a safe place to live after suffering human rights abuses in Myanmar. This crisis has exposed structural flaws in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as its rules made it possible for Myanmar to prevent regional powers from investigating the scale of human rights abuses and taking action to halt them.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's hypocritical to criticize solely ASEAN when Western democracies have done nothing to help the Rohingya — even though the International Court of Justice has long called for measures to protect those persecuted. While this is likely to be a consequence of fears that Myanmar would strengthen ties with Beijing if pressed, not acting to preserve the universal validity of human rights can only damage the West's reputation — the plight of the Rohingya at sea is the world's responsibility.
S. Korea Fires Shots After Invading North Drones
South Korea's military deployed fighter jets, attack helicopters and fired warning shots on Monday, after it reportedly detected five North Korean drones crossing into its airspace in the morning, four of which flew around Ganghwa island and one over Seoul's northern airspace.
The drones were allegedly similar to unmanned aerial vehicles spotted in 2014, which first prompted concerns of espionage from the North. They reportedly flew over the country for around seven hours, with attack helicopters firing about 100 shots but failing to shoot them down.
Republican narrative
You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China — how does he know the US won't also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with, and policies towards, North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.
Democratic narrative
Kim Jong-un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.
Libertarian narrative
The US has threatened to nuke North Korea, which has the right to defend itself. The US should stop playing 'GloboCop' and prioritize solving its domestic problems.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.