27 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

China Ends COVID Quarantine for Foreign Travelers

Facts

  • On Monday, Chinese authorities announced that, beginning Jan. 8, 2023, travelers will no longer need to quarantine upon arrival on the mainland, though a negative nucleic acid test from the last 48 hours will still be required.
  • China's National Health Commission added that COVID management will be formally downgraded to a Class B infectious disease from the current top-level Category A.
  • In addition, the Commission said the PRC would take steps to improve visa arrangements for foreigners – excluding tourists – entering the country to resume work, business, study, and family gatherings.
  • The country's zero-Covid policy presently mandates inbound travelers to quarantine for five days at a government-supervised facility and three days of isolation at home.
  • The move follows rare public protests – the largest since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations of 1989– against the PRC's strict lockdowns earlier this month.
  • It also comes as the country grapples with the virus' unprecedented spread in the wake of the government's sudden dismantling of its strict policies. Though officials have stopped releasing daily case counts and deaths, a Bloomberg report claims as many as 248M people contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December 2022.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

The world has much to learn from China’s COVID response, which allowed the mainland to halt its spread while the infection caused over 15M deaths worldwide. The PRC is doing its best to balance economic realities, public health, and societal pressures. Beijing's current strategic easing will safeguard both health and the economy.

Anti-China narrative

Beijing's zero-COVID U-turn could prove lethal. The PRC's hermit strategy has left the population with little exposure or natural immunity, and the virus will undoubtedly run rampant as almost all restrictions are now lifted. Given China's low vaccination rate for the elderly, the government has inadvertently initiated a pandemic tsunami by downgrading the threat and allowing the virus to rip through the population.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that cumulative reported deaths from COVID in China will exceed 50K before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Peru Arrests Generals Amid Castillo Probe

Facts

  • On Monday, the anti-corruption unit of Peru's attorney general's office detained six generals who are being investigated on claims that they took part in a pay-for-promotion scheme in 2021, allegedly with the consent of ousted former Pres. Pedro Castillo.
  • This comes a month after former army general José Vizcarra and former air force commander Jorge Chaparro claimed that Castillo's government had previously pressured them to promote officers who didn't qualify.
  • Three of those detained in the reportedly "mega-operation" are active police generals who have been accused of having approved promotions in exchange for money.
  • Police also confiscated documents and devices during a raid of the home of Walter Ayala — Castillo’s former Defense Minister, who has denied any corruption allegations — as part of 25 nationwide raids.
  • Castillo, arrested earlier this month after being voted out of office for attempting to dissolve Congress and serving a 48-month pretrial detention, faces six separate counts of corruption, including for influence peddling – all of which he has denied.
  • Since he was ousted and detained on Dec. 7, protests have been raging across Peru, forcing main infrastructures to be shut down and reportedly claiming the lives of more than 20 people as demonstrators reject the new government formed by Dina Boluarte.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The fact that Peru has already had six presidents since 2016 speaks volumes about the country's political situation and underscores what a difficult legacy Boluarte is taking on. It's a positive sign that the coup attempt by the ultra-leftist and corrupt Castillo failed thanks to the resilience of Peruvians. If Boluarte now succeeds in forming a strong government and implementing structural reforms, there's good reason for optimism for Peruvian democracy.

Establishment-critical narrative

The ongoing protests highlight that the justified ouster of the unpopular Castillo is by no means the end of the ongoing political crisis in Peru. Poor Peruvians have legitimate doubts that the dysfunctional democratic system will change anything about their desperate situation. That's why snap elections would likely benefit populist candidates. It's uncertain whether Boluarte will manage to keep Peru from becoming ungovernable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) will be at least $20.4K in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 307: Ukraine Aims for UN-Backed Peace Summit by End of February

Facts

  • In an interview with the Associated Press, Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuelba said his country wants a UN-backed peace summit — mediated by Sec. General António Guterres — by the end of February, on or near the one-year anniversary of the war.
  • However, Kuelba said he doesn't envision Russia taking part, given that one of Ukraine's requirements is that Russia faces a war-crimes tribunal before Kyiv directly engages with Moscow. Kuelba said other countries should feel free to engage directly with Russia.
  • Meanwhile, Kuelba also dismissed Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's comments that Moscow is ready to engage in peace talks. "They regularly say that they are ready for negotiations, which is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield proves the opposite," Kuelba said.
  • In separate comments with Russian news agency TASS, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov also demonstrated the gulf of opinion between the two countries.
  • Lavrov said: "Our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia's security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy. The point is simple: Fulfil them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army."
  • Meanwhile, there's been no let up in fighting, namely in the Donbas region of Donetsk. Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: "The situation there is difficult, acute. The occupiers are using all the resources available to them — and these are significant resources — to squeeze out at least some advance." Ukrainian officials said two civilians were injured in Russian attacks on Donetsk in the past day. Pro-Russia officials also said two civilians were injured in Ukrainian attacks.
  • Elsewhere, Ukrainian officials said one civilian was killed in Russian attacks on Kharkiv while one person was injured in Kherson. The region of Sumy was also shelled without reports of civilian casualties.

Spin

Narrative A

As the White House and others have noted, any peace settlement should come on Ukraine's terms. This includes restoration of territorial integrity, compensation and war-crimes prosecutions. It should also come with meaningul security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.

Narrative B

A sober analysis shows Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russian troops from all its territory. The longer the war goes on, the worse it gets for Ukraine, while increasing the chances of a hot war between Russia, the US, and NATO. The Biden administration has a duty to try and find a negotiated end to the war.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US: FDA Explores Regulating CBD in Foods, Supplements

Facts

  • In a significant shift, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is examining whether legal cannabidiol (CBD) is safe to add to foods and dietary supplements.
  • According to agency officials, the FDA is looking to answer questions about the science, safety, and quality of products containing cannabis and dozens of cannabinoid chemicals, particularly CBD.
  • In the coming months, the FDA is expected to decide how to regulate legal cannabis and whether CBD – a non-addictive active ingredient in cannabis – can be safely eaten every day for an extended period of time.
  • The FDA has only approved one prescription CBD drug, named Epidiolex, for treating seizures associated with two rare and severe forms of epilepsy in patients two years of age and older.
  • CBD has been widely used in food and beverages since Congress legalized hemp production and delisted it as a controlled substance in 2018. However, it is currently illegal to market CBD by adding it to a food or labeling it as a dietary supplement.
  • Last month, the FDA sent warning letters to five companies for illegally selling unapproved CBD products – especially in forms that appeal to children, such as gummies – that the agency claims may result in unintentional consumption or over-consumption of CBD.

Spin

Narrative A

Although several US states have passed laws to legalize CBD, products containing the non-psychoactive cannabis compound are technically illegal at the federal level. Federal regulations should complement, rather than contradict, state rules. Rather than outright denying safe CBD-infused products from coming to market, the FDA must take action and establish a clear and uniform set of standards for companies to adhere to.

Narrative B

The FDA’s current hardline position against foods and beverages containing CBD is understandable given that available scientific data shows that high doses of CBD can damage the liver, reduce sperm quality, and adversely interact with other medications. Until the agency understands the implications of long-term consumption of CBD in foods, it must refrain from concluding that CBD-infused food and dietary supplements can be considered safe.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Taiwan Extends Mandatory Military Service

Facts

  • Taiwan Pres. Tsai Ing-wen announced Tuesday that the country's current four-month mandatory military service for male citizens will be extended to a full year in 2024, citing national security concerns to justify what she described as a "difficult" decision.
  • A series of reforms to the military structure were also disclosed Tuesday, including dividing it into four main categories. The main combat force – made up of professional soldiers – will be responsible for territorial security, while conscripts will join the garrison force to protect key infrastructure inside Taiwan.
  • Tsai stated that the current military system is inefficient and insufficient to counter Beijing's apparent military threat, while more than three-quarters of the Taiwanese people reportedly believe that four months of mandatory military service is too short.
  • This announcement comes a day after Taiwan's defense minister reported that 71 Chinese aircraft had entered the island's self-declared air defense identification zone — some of which extends over mainland China — within 24 hours on Monday, the largest reported incursion to date.
  • Tensions have mounted in the Taiwan Strait to levels not seen in decades following the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August, which prompted the People's Liberation Army to fire missiles and conduct military exercises in response.
  • Taiwan, whose 188k-person military is mostly comprised of volunteers, split from mainland China in 1949 during a civil war. However, Beijing has long claimed the self-ruled island as part of its territory.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

Extending mandatory military service won’t reduce the gap between forces in the Taiwan Straits, and it’s unlikely to improve the island's combat capacity. Taipei, however, has decided to follow this path under the irresistible pressure of the US, a disgraceful move that will turn the Taiwanese people into frontline pawns to advance US strategic interests against China.

Anti-China narrative

Conscription reform, along with other structural reforms to Taiwan's military, is crucial to enhance deterrence in the Taiwan Straits, as Beijing seeks to undermine the international order, as well as regional peace and stability. This move increases Taiwan’s national security by demonstrating its commitment to self-defense, and also wins it international support.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Taiwan (Republic of China) will declare independence by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Kosovo: Serbs Revoke Troop Alert, Start Removing Barricades

Facts

  • Serbian state-run RTS television announced Thursday that the army had revoked the high combat alert on its troops on the border with Kosovo as ethnic Serbs started dismantling roadblocks they had set up in northern Kosovo, defusing weeks of agitation in the Balkans.
  • The apparent easing of tensions comes after ethnic Serbs held talks with Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vučić on Wednesday following the decision of a Kosovo judge to release the ethnic Serb ex-police officer, Dejan Pantić, from custody.
  • Pantić's arrest on Dec. 10 for allegedly assaulting a serving police officer triggered protests by Kosovo's Serb minority, who erected barricades that have blocked roads for 19 days, forcing Kosovo police to close the Merdare border crossing on Wednesday.
  • Tensions culminated in a reported shooting incident — with no reported injuries — on Sunday in a town where ethnic Serbs have been manning barricades for the past two weeks. Amid conflicting reports, NATO peacekeepers are still collecting all the facts.
  • Northern Kosovo has been on heightened alert since November when hundreds of ethnic Serb workers in the Kosovo police and judiciary walked off the job in a boycott against the Kosovar PM Albin Kurti's ban on plates issued by the Serbian authorities, with the intention to replace them for Kosovo plates.
  • Kosovo is predominantly populated by ethnic Albanians but has a Serb majority in its northern regions, which Serbia pulled its troops from in 1999 after NATO intervened. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, but Serbia still considers Kosovo to be part of its own territory.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This conflict has been turned into another proxy war waged by the West over energy. With memories of NATO's bombing of Belgrade in the 1990s still fresh and the US and EU's current backing of Ukraine, it's no wonder Serbia has been looking eastward for both financial and political support. Europe, however, knows it has an economic stranglehold on Serbia, which is why it's pressing the Balkan state so hard to ditch Russia and China and succumb to the progressive green energy plans of Brussels and Berlin.

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's war in Ukraine has prompted valid concerns that Moscow's ally Serbia could play the same card against Kosovo, especially given that neither country recognizes Kosovo as a sovereign state and both share aggressive political rhetoric. The main difference between the fate of Kyiv and Pristina lies in the presence of NATO forces in Kosovo, which has so far deterred Belgrade from waging armed conflict and restrained it from disinformation tactics and propaganda.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Serbia will recognize Kosovo by June 2044, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Rep.-Elect Santos Investigated Over Fabrications

Facts

  • On Wednesday, Anne Donnelly, the Republican District Attorney in Nassau County, NY, announced her office would investigate representative-elect George Santos ((R-NY) after he admitted to "embellishing" his resume. The office didn’t provide details about what type of crime it would be looking for.
  • In an interview with the New York Post on Monday, Santos disclosed fabrications he made about his educational and professional experience while on the campaign trail.
  • The controversy stemmed from a recent New York Times article claiming Santos lied about attending Baruch College, which the university has no record of, as well as claiming that he worked at Citigroup & Goldman Sachs. The banks also have no record of his employment.
  • In regard to his professional experience at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, Santos said he “never worked directly” for either financial firm, but he conducted business with them while he was VP of the investment company Link Bridge.
  • Santos also confessed that he never graduated from any university and said he's embarrassed he lied. As for allegations that he lied about his Jewish heritage, Santos said that despite having some Jewish background on his mother’s side, he never claimed to be Jewish and is “clearly Catholic.”
  • Some House Democrats have called on Santos to resign from his upcoming seat in Congress, saying if he doesn't, then the House GOP leader should call for a vote to expel him.

Spin

Republican narrative

Although lying on the campaign trail is inarguably an inexcusable move, the opposition and its cronies in the media are using this as a political tool to launch an assault on the GOP while conveniently turning a blind eye when one of their own does the same. Pres. Biden himself is no stranger to deceit, having plagiarized speeches, lied about attending an HBCU, and made false claims about his grades in law school.

Democratic narrative

Santos lied and deceived the people he promised to represent. Now, even after admitting to his lies, he's trying to pin the blame on media outlets that simply reported the Congressman-elect's fabrications. Santos won't accept responsibility for his actions, and he's unfit to serve the people of New York.

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Southwest Airlines Probed for Flight Cancellations

Facts

  • The US Dept. of Transportation (USDOT) has said that it's “concerned” about Southwest Airlines’ recent rash of cancellations and delays in response to last weekend's major storm, and will investigate whether the carrier could’ve responded better.
  • Southwest didn’t directly respond to the possibility of being investigated, but previously offered “heartfelt apologies” in a public statement. The airline said it’s rebooking customers as quickly as it can, and is offering refunds and credits.
  • In the aftermath of the storm, caused by an Arctic blast dubbed Elliott that continues to batter the US with record-breaking low temperatures, Southwest canceled more than 70% of its flights on Monday alone.
  • The storm has impacted other airlines, but of the more than 4.5k flights canceled on Tuesday, 56% belonged to Southwest. More than 3k flights had been canceled for Wednesday, including 70% on the Dallas-based carrier.
  • The airports worst hit by cancellations have been Denver, Las Vegas, Chicago Midway, Baltimore/Washington, and Dallas Love Field.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Southwest’s cancellation total is 10 times more than the airline with the second-most cancellations, so obviously it’s doing something drastically wrong. The skies have cleared since the storm, yet Southwest continues to cancel flights at a high rate. This is a total meltdown and, if Southwest can’t get its act together, maybe regulators can get the carrier in line.

Pro-establishment narrative

Southwest has done plenty wrong in terms of overzealous scheduling and under-investing in operations, but these cancellations are equally attributable to bad luck. Two of its biggest hubs – Chicago Midway and Denver International Airport – were hardest hit by the storm, and staffing has been challenged by the so-called “tripledemic” (COVID, flu, and RSV). Combine that with the holiday rush, and Southwest has faced an unprecedented challenge to its service.

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Putin to Ban Oil Supply to Price Cap Countries

Facts

  • Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin delivered his response to a Western price cap on Tuesday, signing a decree that bans the supply of crude oil and oil products to countries abiding by the price cap for five months after Feb. 1.
  • A price cap implemented by G7 countries, Australia, and the EU came into effect on Dec. 5th prohibiting countries from paying more than $60 per barrel of Russian oil.
  • Putin's decree issued on Tuesday read, "Deliveries of Russian oil and oil products to foreign entities and individuals are banned, on the condition that in the contracts for these supplies, the use of a maximum price fixing mechanism is directly or indirectly envisaged.”
  • Western countries implemented the price cap in order to decrease Russia’s revenue while it engages in war with Ukraine. The cap prohibits Russian oil sold for over $60 from being shipped using G7 and EU tankers, insurance companies, and credit institutions.
  • Russian oil has been selling slightly below the price cap level ($56 per barrel), but the effects of the price cap may decrease Moscow’s oil earnings. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia’s budget deficit could be wider than the planned 2% of GDP.
  • Putin still maintains the right to make special decisions on the supply of oil and petroleum products, meaning that Russian oil can be sold to countries adhering to the West’s price cap if Putin makes an exception.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The West's price cap was foolish from the onset, and bound to backfire. The cap is easy to circumvent, and Russia will continue to be one of the world’s leaders in oil exports, given its ability to tap into eastern markets. There are many areas able and willing to buy Russian oil and Western countries will now simply be forced to pay more for oil elsewhere.

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin’s energy blackmail may make him feel powerful now, but his decision to cut off oil sales to Western countries will hurt Russia in the long run. Russia is very dependent on oil exports to keep its economy afloat and stunting the global oil market is another blunder in Putin’s long line of mistakes.

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Man Sentenced for Plotting to Kidnap Mich. Gov.

Facts

  • Adam Fox, described by federal prosecutors in Grand Rapids, Mich., as a militia member and leader of a plot to kidnap Michigan's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, was sentenced to 16 years in prison on Tuesday, the longest sentence yet for anyone involved in the high-profile domestic terrorism case.
  • After a hung jury in his first trial, Fox, 39, was convicted in August alongside Barry Croft Jr. on charges of kidnapping conspiracy and conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction, which carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. Croft will be sentenced on Wednesday.
  • Fox's attorney, Christopher Gibbons, argued he "was an unemployed vacuum repairman who was venting his frustrations on social media," not the "false narrative of a terrifying paramilitary leader" the prosecution accused him of being.
  • Prosecutors also made the case that the 2020 plot included Fox conducting reconnaissance of Whitmer's summer home, blowing up a bridge near that home, and kidnapping her when he had the opportunity. They claimed that, ultimately, Fox wanted to start a second Civil War.
  • The defense, however, also argued entrapment, saying the FBI coerced the defendants into pursuing the plot through various undercover agents. They asked for a sentence of four to six years, aligned with the sentences of others who have pleaded guilty ahead of trial.
  • The sentence comes after three other co-defendants were convicted in October on charges of providing support for terrorist acts, for which they could receive between seven and 20 years. Five other men were charged in state court in another county and are awaiting trial.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Both the conviction and sentence of Adam Fox and his so-called co-conspirators have been blown way out of proportion. Given that two other suspects in the case have already been acquitted, coupled with the fact that undercover FBI agents encouraged, coordinated, assisted, and funded various parts of the scheme, it's clear that if it weren't for the Feds, this "kidnapping plot" would never have occurred.

Pro-establishment narrative

After a jury of Adam Fox's peers heard arguments and evidence from both sides, it rightfully decided to convict him of plotting a violent kidnapping attempt against the governor of Michigan. While on the surface, entrapment may seem to be a sound argument, the reality is that the FBI didn't plant the seed, and the prosecution proved that the defendant was predisposed to commit the crime.

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