Day 310: Belarus Says It Downed Ukrainian Air-Defense Missile
Following the latest barrage of Russian missiles fired on Ukraine on Thursday, Belarus said it shot down a Ukrainian S-300 air-defense missile near the village of Harbacha in the Brest region, roughly nine miles (15 km) from the border of Ukraine.
Ukraine's ambassador to Belarus was summoned to the foreign ministry in Minsk as a result of the incident. Ministry spokesman Anatoly Glaz said: "The Belarusian side views this incident as extremely serious." He continued, saying: "We demanded that the Ukrainian side conduct a thorough investigation," and called for Ukraine to "hold those responsible to account." Glaz also stated that the neighboring country should seek to stop an incident like this from happening again.
Narrative A
The firing of an air-defense missile into Belarus is a very serious incident that risked prompting an international escalation of the conflict. Ukraine needs to conduct a thorough review to prevent this type of potentially inflammatory event from occurring again.
Narrative B
The Kremlin is desperate to involve Belarus in its war of aggression in Ukraine. As such, it cannot be ruled out that Russia deliberately laid a route for one of its missiles that would lead to it being intercepted over the territory of the country.
Narrative C
The S-300 is a Soviet-era weapon used by both Russia and Ukraine. It's notoriously unreliable and is known to miss its targets and go astray. Although undesirable, there's nothing strange or suspicious about this incident.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Russian or Belarusian troops will cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Indonesia to Tighten Palm Oil Exports
Indonesia on Friday announced it was revising its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy and will cut the amount of palm oil producers can export to six times the domestic sales volume – down from the current eight times – starting Jan. 1.
The world’s biggest palm oil producer explained it was tightening its export rules to ensure sufficient domestic supply of the commodity, particularly during Ramadan, which the country will celebrate in March.
Establishment-critical narrative
This move will not only hurt household economics globally but also reduce supplies of the world's most-used cooking oils, thus creating additional upward pressure for food prices well into 2023. The Indonesian government must rethink the policy change as it strains global food insecurity and poses significant risks to palm fruit farmers' livelihoods.
Pro-establishment narrative
Indonesia must first address food security issues domestically before it shifts its focus globally. The move may be harsh, but it's necessary to stabilize domestic prices of palm oil, considering the festive season is bound to affect the demand and supply equation. Furthermore, Malaysia will be able to pick up some of the export slack while Indonesia enforces this temporary change in regulation.
Cynical narrative
Continuous use of palm oil in food and biofuels will have a catastrophic impact on the planet. Apart from making Indonesia a primary emitter of carbon emissions, palm oil plantations have already resulted in industrial-scale deforestation, threatening several plant and animal species. Though reducing the dependency on Indonesia's palm markets may be challenging, the world must look for an alternative — no matter the cost.
Report: FDA Broke its Rules on Alzheimer's Drug
According to a Thursday report by the US House Committee on Oversight and Reform and House Committee on Energy and Commerce, the US Food and Drug Admin.'s (FDA) approval process for Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm was "rife with irregularities," and its interactions with the company were "atypical."
The investigation followed the FDA's decision to approve the drug in 2021 despite objections from its panel of outside advisors, who believed the data didn't prove benefits for patients. It was authorized on evidence that it could reduce brain plaques — a likely contributor to the disease — rather than its ability to slow the progression of Alzheimer's.
Pro-establishment narrative
While rare, this isn't the first time the FDA has deviated from its advisory committee's recommendation. The FDA, understanding the public attention this drug approval would get, has rightly stood by its reasoning, including the life-threatening nature of Alzheimer's, its unmet need for treatment, and the evidence that the drug reduces brain plaques. As with all approved drugs, the FDA has closely monitored its success as it entered the market.
Establishment-critical narrative
This report is not surprising in the slightest, as the FDA has been engaged in blatant drug approval corruption for a long time. While this may not be widely known, large pharmaceutical companies literally fund the FDA's drug review studies in what's known as its "user fee" program, leading to a never-ending cycle of regulatory capture.
Trump Tax Returns Released
Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee officially released six years' worth of former Pres. Donald Trump's tax returns on Friday following a party-line vote on the matter last week.
The returns stretch from 2015-2020, covering Trump's taxes during his candidacy and time in office. He broke tradition by being the first president since Nixon not to release his tax returns to the public, leading to a legal battle starting once Democrats took the House in 2019.
Democratic narrative
The release of the returns is the final act in a saga that Trump's incessant fighting has dragged out for years. Much of the information Trump sought to keep private became public irrespectively, and the reality is that for all of his claims of being a great businessman, his companies have been losing millions for years. This release remains a blow to the former president.
Pro-Trump narrative
To no one's surprise, the big tax return release was just an anticlimactic witch hunt. What it did show is that while he was focused on being president, Trump's companies did take a financial dive, which is why he paid very little in income tax. This was nothing more than a political farce that has opened the door to future harassment.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China-Made COVID Antiviral Pill Completes Trial
In a "phase 3" trial conducted in China, a new antiviral pill for the treatment of COVID was found to be as effective as Paxlovid against mild to moderate infection in people determined to be at high risk of severe disease.
According to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, patients who took the pill, known as "VV116," recovered on average one day faster (for a total of four days) when compared to those who took Paxlovid. The researchers also found a lower incidence of adverse effects with the VV116 group compared to the Paxlovid group.
Narrative A
China is facing a staggering COVID surge with the rollback of its zero-COVID policy. As cases and deaths increase, this new anti-viral drug will be very helpful, especially as the country experiences a shortage of Paxlovid and other COVID-specific medications.
Narrative B
While VV116 may seem like a promising alternative to Paxlovid, it has not been studied enough. The clinical trials involved too small of a control group, and the results were not clear enough for many authorities and regulators to want to approve or manufacture the drug. It's too early to tell if the new treatment will be able to help China's roiling COVID surge.
Attack in Eastern Syria Kills 10 Oil Workers
According to state news agency SANA, an attack on three buses in Syria's eastern Deir Ezzor province on Friday killed at least 10 al-Taym oil field workers and left two injured.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused members of the Islamic State (IS) of being behind it.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US's ongoing interference in oil-rich Syria continues to exacerbate problems in the Middle East and raise questions about its true motives. Washington politicians, and their defense-contract donors, seemingly love to prolong wars, but there's no rational reason to stay in Syria at this point. Only if the US and its partners leave Syria will the country be able to find lasting peace again.
Pro-establishment narrative
While IS may not be perceived as the grave threat it was in the past decade — largely thanks to US efforts — it's still a dangerous terror organization whose actions have, and will continue to, destroy the lives of thousands. Syria has been in disarray since the start of its civil war, and its regime cannot resolve the problems of the region alone. US-led global action is required to bring stability and human rights to Syria.
Andrew Tate and Brother Arrested in Romania
Romanian police detained former professional kickboxer and internet celebrity Andrew Tate along with his brother Tristan and two other suspects on Thursday night.
Romanian authorities served search warrants to five homes and detained four suspects as part of an organized human trafficking and rape investigation. Authorities did not name the detainees, with Tate’s lawyer saying "he was not arrested. He was detained for 24 hours."
Pro-establishment narrative
Getting humiliated by Greta Thunberg seems to be the least of Andrew Tate’s concerns now that he's been arrested on human trafficking and rape charges. Tate has made countless vile comments about women, so it should not be surprising that he could engage in such horrendous abuse. Tate is unquestioningly a bad actor, and his criminal activity needs to be investigated.
Establishment-critical narrative
The circumstances of Tate's arrest are suspicious. He's faced similar charges before, which the controversial social media influencer said was "swatting" and related to his accumulation of wealth, including cryptocurrency. The inane "pizza box" conspiracy theory is already debunked, and forthcoming information could shed light on Tate's situation.
Bolivia: Opposition Leader Arrested on Terrorism Charges
Luis Fernando Camacho, right-wing governor and former presidential candidate, was arrested on terrorism charges on Wednesday. He was sentenced to four months of pre-trial detention by a Bolivian judge on Friday.
The charges stem from Camacho's role in the 2019 protests that led to the resignation of then-president Evo Morales, which prosecutors claim constituted a coup. Several political and military leaders are facing similar charges — including the interim Pres. Jeanine Áñez, who was installed after Morales resigned and is currently facing a 10-year sentence.
Establishment-critical narrative
Camacho was responsible for a violent, far-right coup against a democratically elected government. The allegations of fraud are dubious at best, and the power grab led to death and destruction across Bolivia. The government is seeking justice for the victims of this violence through the legal system, even at the risk of violence from Camacho's many vocal supporters.
Pro-establishment narrative
Camacho is an outspoken critic of the MAS regime, and this is a blatant act of retaliation against him and his allies. Unable to cope with his widespread popularity in one of Bolivia's fastest-growing regions, the regime has resorted to dictatorial tactics by fabricating these charges. This is a dark day for democracy, as a popular, incumbent governor is arrested for opposing the ruling government.
Myanmar: Aung San Suu Kyi Jailed For Seven More Years
The deposed leader of Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, has been sentenced to a further seven years in prison by the country's governing military junta. The latest verdict, on charges of corruption, means the 77-year-old faces a total of 33 years in prison.
According to an anonymous source familiar with the trial, Suu Kyi was found guilty of five counts of corruption, specifically relating to the lease and use of a helicopter while she was the de facto leader of Myanmar.
Pro-establishment narrative
This was a show trial aimed at silencing Aung San Suu Kyi and removing her from the political landscape. The US's targeted sanctions of the military junta, however, will help support those working towards the shoring up of democracy in Myanmar. Under Biden's leadership, the US has clearly signaled its solidarity with the people of Myanmar and its willingness to hold the nation's military accountable for countless human rights violations.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US is continuing to fail to take an effective stance against human rights abuses in Myanmar. American officials only throw humanitarian crumbs towards populations who lack proxy value, while giving billions to big-ticket, election-friendly issues like the Russia-Ukraine war. Issues affecting Europe remain a priority, as 55M people in Myanmar struggle to stay alive and eke out an existence under an unforgiving dictatorship.
Hershey Sued for Metals in Dark Chocolate
Hershey Co. is being sued by a consumer accusing the confectionary giant of selling dark chocolate that contains harmful levels of lead and cadmium.
New York resident Christopher Lazazzaro filed a proposed class action lawsuit against Hershey in a Central Islip, N.Y. federal court. Lazazzaro claims the company misled consumers by failing to disclose the quantities of lead and cadmium metals in three of their dark chocolate bars.
Pro-establishment narrative
Food safety and product quality are the highest priorities for Hershey and other members of the National Confectioners Association. Hershey’s chocolates are made in strict compliance with the Association's California Proposition 65 settlement which establishes strict requirements for lead and cadmium levels. The products in question are well below any dangerous level and are safe to enjoy.
Establishment-critical narrative
Heavy metals such as lead and cadmium are extremely dangerous to consume, and only one ounce of Hershey’s dark chocolate is well above a safe level. These metals pose a threat to children and can cause severe developmental issues. Chocolate companies must be held responsible and ensure their consumers know what they’re eating.