30 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

Day 310: Belarus Says It Downed Ukrainian Air-Defense Missile

Facts

  • Following the latest barrage of Russian missiles fired on Ukraine on Thursday, Belarus said it shot down a Ukrainian S-300 air-defense missile near the village of Harbacha in the Brest region, roughly nine miles (15 km) from the border of Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's ambassador to Belarus was summoned to the foreign ministry in Minsk as a result of the incident. Ministry spokesman Anatoly Glaz said: "The Belarusian side views this incident as extremely serious." He continued, saying: "We demanded that the Ukrainian side conduct a thorough investigation," and called for Ukraine to "hold those responsible to account." Glaz also stated that the neighboring country should seek to stop an incident like this from happening again.
  • In response, Ukraine's defense ministry said: "The Ukrainian side, reserving the unconditional right to the defense and protection of its own sky, at the same time is ready to conduct an objective investigation in Ukraine." It added that it did not rule out a "deliberate provocation" in which Russia launched its cruise missiles on a path that would be intercepted over Belarusian territory.
  • Meanwhile, Russia launched fresh attacks overnight and on Friday morning. Ukraine's air force said it shot down all 16 drones deployed by Russia, with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko adding that two of the drones were destroyed over the capital while another five were shot down in the wider Kyiv region. However, officials said one of the downed drones "partially destroyed" an administrative building and damaged the windows of a nearby residence in the Holosiivskyi district.
  • Ukrainian officials said that, during attacks in the last 24 hours, three civilians were killed and two more were injured in the Kharkiv region, one civilian was killed and another was injured in the Donetsk region, and one civilian was killed in the Kherson region. One civilian was also injured in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.
  • Meanwhile, in Ukrainian attacks for the same time period, pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that one civilian was killed and 10 more were injured in the region.

Spin

Narrative A

The firing of an air-defense missile into Belarus is a very serious incident that risked prompting an international escalation of the conflict. Ukraine needs to conduct a thorough review to prevent this type of potentially inflammatory event from occurring again.

Narrative B

The Kremlin is desperate to involve Belarus in its war of aggression in Ukraine. As such, it cannot be ruled out that Russia deliberately laid a route for one of its missiles that would lead to it being intercepted over the territory of the country.

Narrative C

The S-300 is a Soviet-era weapon used by both Russia and Ukraine. It's notoriously unreliable and is known to miss its targets and go astray. Although undesirable, there's nothing strange or suspicious about this incident.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Russian or Belarusian troops will cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Indonesia to Tighten Palm Oil Exports

Facts

  • Indonesia on Friday announced it was revising its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy and will cut the amount of palm oil producers can export to six times the domestic sales volume – down from the current eight times – starting Jan. 1.
  • The world’s biggest palm oil producer explained it was tightening its export rules to ensure sufficient domestic supply of the commodity, particularly during Ramadan, which the country will celebrate in March.
  • The preventive measure, which allows fewer shipments overseas for every ton sold domestically, is reportedly to address the potential increase in domestic cooking oil demand that often accompanies Ramadan for the first quarter of 2023 and "will be evaluated periodically."
  • As Malaysia is the world’s second-biggest exporter of palm oil, the announcement saw the country's palm oil futures jump more than 2% on Friday and hit their highest level in a month at $950 per ton.
  • Indonesia last April banned palm oil export, which shook global markets and sent vegetable oil prices spiraling. The ban was later lifted in May.
  • Meanwhile, experts fear the sudden change in palm oil export policy may restrict supply, just as Indonesia plans to increase the mandatory palm oil component in biofuels to 35% starting Feb. 1.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This move will not only hurt household economics globally but also reduce supplies of the world's most-used cooking oils, thus creating additional upward pressure for food prices well into 2023. The Indonesian government must rethink the policy change as it strains global food insecurity and poses significant risks to palm fruit farmers' livelihoods.

Pro-establishment narrative

Indonesia must first address food security issues domestically before it shifts its focus globally. The move may be harsh, but it's necessary to stabilize domestic prices of palm oil, considering the festive season is bound to affect the demand and supply equation. Furthermore, Malaysia will be able to pick up some of the export slack while Indonesia enforces this temporary change in regulation.

Cynical narrative

Continuous use of palm oil in food and biofuels will have a catastrophic impact on the planet. Apart from making Indonesia a primary emitter of carbon emissions, palm oil plantations have already resulted in industrial-scale deforestation, threatening several plant and animal species. Though reducing the dependency on Indonesia's palm markets may be challenging, the world must look for an alternative — no matter the cost.

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Report: FDA Broke its Rules on Alzheimer's Drug

Facts

  • According to a Thursday report by the US House Committee on Oversight and Reform and House Committee on Energy and Commerce, the US Food and Drug Admin.'s (FDA) approval process for Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm was "rife with irregularities," and its interactions with the company were "atypical."
  • The investigation followed the FDA's decision to approve the drug in 2021 despite objections from its panel of outside advisors, who believed the data didn't prove benefits for patients. It was authorized on evidence that it could reduce brain plaques — a likely contributor to the disease — rather than its ability to slow the progression of Alzheimer's.
  • After the entire advisory panel voted not to approve Aduhelm, the FDA decided to switch from the traditional approval process and approve the drug through the accelerated process typically used for rare diseases or those with small patient pools.
  • The report adds that after an independent report showed the drug's inability to slow cognitive and functional impairment, Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen canceled its clinical trials in March 2019. The FDA still approved it, along with its price of $56k per year.
  • Other irregularities claimed in the report include that FDA staff and Biogen held at least 115 meetings, calls, and email exchanges over 12 months beginning in July 2019, though the agency didn't keep a clear record of the interactions. The report claims 66 calls and emails weren't recorded.
  • Both Biogen and the FDA have stated they believe their interactions were "appropriate," though the agency has already begun implementing some of the report's recommendations. These include ensuring all interactions with drug companies are recorded and updating the industry guidance for developing and reviewing Alzheimer's drugs.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While rare, this isn't the first time the FDA has deviated from its advisory committee's recommendation. The FDA, understanding the public attention this drug approval would get, has rightly stood by its reasoning, including the life-threatening nature of Alzheimer's, its unmet need for treatment, and the evidence that the drug reduces brain plaques. As with all approved drugs, the FDA has closely monitored its success as it entered the market.

Establishment-critical narrative

This report is not surprising in the slightest, as the FDA has been engaged in blatant drug approval corruption for a long time. While this may not be widely known, large pharmaceutical companies literally fund the FDA's drug review studies in what's known as its "user fee" program, leading to a never-ending cycle of regulatory capture.

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Trump Tax Returns Released

Facts

  • Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee officially released six years' worth of former Pres. Donald Trump's tax returns on Friday following a party-line vote on the matter last week.
  • The returns stretch from 2015-2020, covering Trump's taxes during his candidacy and time in office. He broke tradition by being the first president since Nixon not to release his tax returns to the public, leading to a legal battle starting once Democrats took the House in 2019.
  • The legal conflict was only settled last month after SCOTUS ruled against the former president's request to keep the tax returns private.
  • The returns, which include redactions of sensitive information such as Social Security and bank account numbers, are nearly 6k pages long, with over 2.7k pages of individual returns for Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, as well as more than 3k pages for Trump's business entities.
  • Within the six-year time span, the returns show Trump paid a total of $4.4M in taxes after an adjusted gross income of -$53.2M. Reasons for this, beyond the negative income, included deductions from cash charitable donations and alternative-fuel tax credits.
  • Meanwhile, some have raised concerns over the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) auditing of Trump's taxes during his presidency, with a report alleging that the administration only began examining his 2016 taxes in 2019.

Spin

Democratic narrative

The release of the returns is the final act in a saga that Trump's incessant fighting has dragged out for years. Much of the information Trump sought to keep private became public irrespectively, and the reality is that for all of his claims of being a great businessman, his companies have been losing millions for years. This release remains a blow to the former president.

Pro-Trump narrative

To no one's surprise, the big tax return release was just an anticlimactic witch hunt. What it did show is that while he was focused on being president, Trump's companies did take a financial dive, which is why he paid very little in income tax. This was nothing more than a political farce that has opened the door to future harassment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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China-Made COVID Antiviral Pill Completes Trial

Facts

  • In a "phase 3" trial conducted in China, a new antiviral pill for the treatment of COVID was found to be as effective as Paxlovid against mild to moderate infection in people determined to be at high risk of severe disease.
  • According to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, patients who took the pill, known as "VV116," recovered on average one day faster (for a total of four days) when compared to those who took Paxlovid. The researchers also found a lower incidence of adverse effects with the VV116 group compared to the Paxlovid group.
  • The efficacy of VV116 in reducing severe symptoms, hospitalization, or death among high-risk, unvaccinated individuals has not yet been determined.
  • A standard "phase 3" drug trial typically includes as many as 3K people, though the Paxlovid late-stage trial had 2.2K participants. The VV116 trial was significantly less, with only 380 people taking the medication for five days with a similarly sized group taking Paxlovid instead.

Spin

Narrative A

China is facing a staggering COVID surge with the rollback of its zero-COVID policy. As cases and deaths increase, this new anti-viral drug will be very helpful, especially as the country experiences a shortage of Paxlovid and other COVID-specific medications.

Narrative B

While VV116 may seem like a promising alternative to Paxlovid, it has not been studied enough. The clinical trials involved too small of a control group, and the results were not clear enough for many authorities and regulators to want to approve or manufacture the drug. It's too early to tell if the new treatment will be able to help China's roiling COVID surge.

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Attack in Eastern Syria Kills 10 Oil Workers

Facts

  • According to state news agency SANA, an attack on three buses in Syria's eastern Deir Ezzor province on Friday killed at least 10 al-Taym oil field workers and left two injured.
  • No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused members of the Islamic State (IS) of being behind it.
  • The same day, US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said they arrested 52 IS militants during raids in the north, reportedly thwarting an alleged planned New Year's Eve attack.
  • This comes a day after the SDF announced "Operation Al-Jazeera Thunderbolt," an offensive against IS to eliminate its fighters from the al-Hol and Tal Hamis areas.
  • Around 900 US troops in Syria reportedly support the SDF's fight against IS, and on Thursday, the US Central Command said it had operated 313 operations against IS in Syria and Iraq this year.
  • Friday's attack on oil field workers is the latest violence in Syria's catastrophic 11-year-old civil war; around 500K people have died in the conflict, and millions more have been forced to flee their homes.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The US's ongoing interference in oil-rich Syria continues to exacerbate problems in the Middle East and raise questions about its true motives. Washington politicians, and their defense-contract donors, seemingly love to prolong wars, but there's no rational reason to stay in Syria at this point. Only if the US and its partners leave Syria will the country be able to find lasting peace again.

Pro-establishment narrative

While IS may not be perceived as the grave threat it was in the past decade — largely thanks to US efforts — it's still a dangerous terror organization whose actions have, and will continue to, destroy the lives of thousands. Syria has been in disarray since the start of its civil war, and its regime cannot resolve the problems of the region alone. US-led global action is required to bring stability and human rights to Syria.

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Andrew Tate and Brother Arrested in Romania

Facts

  • Romanian police detained former professional kickboxer and internet celebrity Andrew Tate along with his brother Tristan and two other suspects on Thursday night.
  • Romanian authorities served search warrants to five homes and detained four suspects as part of an organized human trafficking and rape investigation. Authorities did not name the detainees, with Tate’s lawyer saying "he was not arrested. He was detained for 24 hours."
  • A Bucharest court on Friday agreed to extend Tate’s detention by 30 days, however, following a request from prosecutors from the anti-organized crime unit, who added that the Tate brothers have been under investigation since April.
  • Romania's Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism stated that two British citizens and two Romanians are the targets of the investigation. The Directorate identified six victims who say they were "sexually exploited" by the pair who allegedly misrepresented their romantic interest in the victims.
  • This comes in the wake of a recent social spat between Tate and climate activist Greta Thunberg, with viral posts claiming a pizza box shown in Tate’s response video to Thunberg revealed he was still located in Romania. Authorities say the video was "absolutely not" a key piece of evidence in locating Tate.
  • Tate, a controversial social media influencer, previously told Tucker Carlson on Fox News that he was de-platformed by technology companies because he "had large swaths of the population agreeing to the very traditional masculine values."

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Getting humiliated by Greta Thunberg seems to be the least of Andrew Tate’s concerns now that he's been arrested on human trafficking and rape charges. Tate has made countless vile comments about women, so it should not be surprising that he could engage in such horrendous abuse. Tate is unquestioningly a bad actor, and his criminal activity needs to be investigated.

Establishment-critical narrative

The circumstances of Tate's arrest are suspicious. He's faced similar charges before, which the controversial social media influencer said was "swatting" and related to his accumulation of wealth, including cryptocurrency. The inane "pizza box" conspiracy theory is already debunked, and forthcoming information could shed light on Tate's situation.

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Bolivia: Opposition Leader Arrested on Terrorism Charges

Facts

  • Luis Fernando Camacho, right-wing governor and former presidential candidate, was arrested on terrorism charges on Wednesday. He was sentenced to four months of pre-trial detention by a Bolivian judge on Friday.
  • The charges stem from Camacho's role in the 2019 protests that led to the resignation of then-president Evo Morales, which prosecutors claim constituted a coup. Several political and military leaders are facing similar charges — including the interim Pres. Jeanine Áñez, who was installed after Morales resigned and is currently facing a 10-year sentence.
  • Morales praised the arrest, stating that Camacho will "answer" for the "robberies, persecutions, arrests and massacres of the de facto government," while Camacho's office alleged he was "brutally kidnapped" on charges "lacking truth and credibility."
  • The news sparked protests in Camacho's home state of Santa Cruz, with a powerful committee calling for a 24-hour civic strike in support of the governor.
  • The unrest in 2019 saw the deaths of 37 people after allegations of fraud against Morales's Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, which returned to power in a 2020 election helmed by incumbent Pres. Luis Arce. The MAS has pledged to prosecute those responsible for the abuses that occurred during the power struggle.
  • The US Dept. of State and the United Nations both issued statements urging non-violence as the situation develops in Bolivia.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Camacho was responsible for a violent, far-right coup against a democratically elected government. The allegations of fraud are dubious at best, and the power grab led to death and destruction across Bolivia. The government is seeking justice for the victims of this violence through the legal system, even at the risk of violence from Camacho's many vocal supporters.

Pro-establishment narrative

Camacho is an outspoken critic of the MAS regime, and this is a blatant act of retaliation against him and his allies. Unable to cope with his widespread popularity in one of Bolivia's fastest-growing regions, the regime has resorted to dictatorial tactics by fabricating these charges. This is a dark day for democracy, as a popular, incumbent governor is arrested for opposing the ruling government.

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Myanmar: Aung San Suu Kyi Jailed For Seven More Years

Facts

  • The deposed leader of Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, has been sentenced to a further seven years in prison by the country's governing military junta. The latest verdict, on charges of corruption, means the 77-year-old faces a total of 33 years in prison.
  • According to an anonymous source familiar with the trial, Suu Kyi was found guilty of five counts of corruption, specifically relating to the lease and use of a helicopter while she was the de facto leader of Myanmar.
  • Nobel peace laureate Suu Kyi was removed as Myanmar's state counselor in Feb. 2021 at the start of a military coup. She has since faced imprisonment and solitary confinement and has been charged with accepting bribes and other kinds of corruption.
  • Friday's verdict resulted from allegations that the former state counselor had neglected to follow financial regulations when she allowed Win Myat Aye — a cabinet member in Suu Kyi's government — to hire, buy, and maintain the helicopter. It saw Myanmar's courts conclude the various cases charged against Suu Kyi.
  • Granting the international community access to Suu Kyi has long been a key demand among critics of Myanmar's military regime. Statistics from an NGO called Assistance Association for Political Prisoners have said security forces have so far killed at least 2,685 civilians and arrested 16,651 since the coup.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This was a show trial aimed at silencing Aung San Suu Kyi and removing her from the political landscape. The US's targeted sanctions of the military junta, however, will help support those working towards the shoring up of democracy in Myanmar. Under Biden's leadership, the US has clearly signaled its solidarity with the people of Myanmar and its willingness to hold the nation's military accountable for countless human rights violations.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US is continuing to fail to take an effective stance against human rights abuses in Myanmar. American officials only throw humanitarian crumbs towards populations who lack proxy value, while giving billions to big-ticket, election-friendly issues like the Russia-Ukraine war. Issues affecting Europe remain a priority, as 55M people in Myanmar struggle to stay alive and eke out an existence under an unforgiving dictatorship.

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Hershey Sued for Metals in Dark Chocolate

Facts

  • Hershey Co. is being sued by a consumer accusing the confectionary giant of selling dark chocolate that contains harmful levels of lead and cadmium.
  • New York resident Christopher Lazazzaro filed a proposed class action lawsuit against Hershey in a Central Islip, N.Y. federal court. Lazazzaro claims the company misled consumers by failing to disclose the quantities of lead and cadmium metals in three of their dark chocolate bars.
  • The lawsuit specifically focuses on Hershey’s Special Dark bar, Lily’s 70% bar, and Lily’s 85% bar, which were high in either lead, cadmium, or both. The suit also refers to a Consumer Reports study that tested chocolate bars’ metal levels.
  • The report found that 23 out of 28 dark chocolate bars studied contained metal levels that public health authorities consider harmful. Hershey’s, its subsidiary Lily’s, as well as Theo, and Trader Joe’s were notable brands with especially elevated levels.
  • While the FDA doesn’t have stringent recommendations for metal intake, California does thanks to a settlement between the National Confectioners Association and the advocacy group "As You Sow." The association says manufacturers like Hershey are adhering to the settlement.
  • Lazazzaro’s suit is seeking at least $5M from Hershey’s for its deceptive advertising and marketing practices.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Food safety and product quality are the highest priorities for Hershey and other members of the National Confectioners Association. Hershey’s chocolates are made in strict compliance with the Association's California Proposition 65 settlement which establishes strict requirements for lead and cadmium levels. The products in question are well below any dangerous level and are safe to enjoy.

Establishment-critical narrative

Heavy metals such as lead and cadmium are extremely dangerous to consume, and only one ounce of Hershey’s dark chocolate is well above a safe level. These metals pose a threat to children and can cause severe developmental issues. Chocolate companies must be held responsible and ensure their consumers know what they’re eating.

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