29 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

Day 309: Over 120 Missiles Fired into Ukraine, Reports Say

Facts

  • According to Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak, more than 120 missiles were fired at Ukraine overnight, with blasts reported in Kyiv, as well as the regions of Lviv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltova, Odesa and Zhytomyr. Although a number of these were from missile-defense systems, the scale of the strikes reflects a renewed wave of Russian attacks on the country in the past 24 hours.
  • In Kyiv, local officials said three civilians were injured after debris from a downed missile hit a residential building. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that a total of 16 missiles were shot down over the capital. It was not immediately clear how many missiles evaded missile-defense systems, though there were reports of renewed power outages in the region.
  • Ukrainian officials also said 21 missiles were shot down over Odesa while one was shot down over Sumy. Five missiles were reportedly shot down over the Black Sea, but, it was again unclear how many missiles struck their intended targets.
  • Meanwhile, overnight, a drone attack was recorded in the Kharkiv region — Ukrainian officials said 11 of 13 drones were shot down. Overnight attacks were also reported in the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. There have been no additional reports of civilian casualties connected to any of the attacks at this stage.
  • In Ukrainian attacks, Russian officials said drones were shot down over the Belgorod and Bryansk regions. There were no reports of related casualties. Pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that one civilian was killed and three more were injured in Ukrainian attacks on the region.
  • Meanwhile, in an interview with the BBC, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, alleged that the frontline situation has reached a stalemate. "The situation is just stuck," he said. "It doesn't move," he continued, adding: "We can't defeat them in all directions comprehensively. Neither can they."
  • Elsewhere, following a meeting on Wednesday between Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock — one of the world's largest investment firms — the pair agreed to coordinate investment efforts for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Nerd narrative

There's a 31% chance that Vladimir Putin will be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Election of Bill Clinton Led UK to Brace For 'Turbulence' Over NI, Say Papers

Facts

  • Documents declassified this week show that the election of Bill Clinton as US president in 1992 prompted the UK government to brace for "turbulence" due to his views on Northern Ireland (NI).
  • In a letter written to an Irish-American group just weeks before the election, Clinton called for "more effective safeguards" against the use of lethal force in the region. The letter was circulated in the NI Office before it was suggested to the UK's ambassador to the US that Clinton's views needed to be challenged, rather than being left to "calcify."
  • Clinton's letter was declassified at the Public Record Office in Belfast, alongside memos concerning the communication. John Chilcot, a senior member of the civil service at the time, stated that Clinton's reference to lethal force in the letter was "particularly unwelcome."
  • Clinton's letter also commented that a "realistic solution" to The Troubles in Northern Ireland — the sectarian civil violence that took place between the late 1960s and 1990s — could only be achieved through political negotiations and consent, rather than "further acts of violence." Chilcot described Clinton's NI agenda as unwelcome, although conceded that it "might well have been worse".
  • Clinton, the first-ever sitting US president to visit Northern Ireland, went on to help broker the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, bringing an end to three decades of conflict. In December 2022, the Biden administration appointed Joe Kennedy III as a special representative to Northern Ireland, as the UK and EU look to come to an agreement over the region's post-Brexit trading arrangements in time for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.
  • The publication of the controversial comments comes as it emerged, also through the declassification of documents, that no contingency plans were included in the establishment of the Northern Irish Stormont power-sharing assembly in 1999. Devolved Northern Irish institutions have been suspended a number of times since their founding, and the Stormont is currently suspended due to the DUP's protest over the post-Brexit NI Protocol.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Clinton's foreign policy approach to Northern Ireland was a resounding success. Even his harshest critics were amazed at the love the former president received during his trip to the region, and the peace agreement was largely a triumph for the Clinton Administration. The US continues to be a positive influence in the nation.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US has its own economic interests, and although it holds a commitment to peace in Ireland, America will ultimately seek to advance its own goals. There is no obvious reason for the US to take sides in the current Brexit-fueled dilemmas surrounding the region, and no one should count on the country to support Ireland's interests, despite America's diplomatic success there in the 1990s.

Nerd narrative

There is a 41% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Cambodia: Deadly Hotel-Casino Fire Near Thai Border

Facts

  • At least 19 people were killed when a massive fire broke out Wednesday at the Grand Diamond City Casino and Hotel in the Cambodian town of Poipet, which is located near the Thai border.
  • Over 300 responders and 11 firetrucks were reportedly sent to douse the blaze, which also left 70 people critically injured. Approximately 700 Thai citizens were rescued and sent to the hospital.
  • At the Cambodian government's request, Thailand also sent five fire trucks and ten rescue vans across the border to assist. An investigation is underway to find the cause of the blaze, which was finally extinguished at 11 a.m. local time on Thursday.
  • According to an eyewitness, the flames started in the casino kitchen area before quickly spreading upwards. About 50 people were trapped inside the sky bar on the 17th floor.
  • In a clip posted by Cambodia's firefighting agency, onlookers could be heard screaming to rescue people trapped on the multistorey complex's roof. Videos posted on social media showed people jumping from the upper floors of the flaming building.
  • Thursday's fire follows two fatal incidents in entertainment venues in neighboring nations. In August, an inferno at a Thai nightclub killed at least 26 and injured dozens more; in September, a blaze at a karaoke bar in Vietnam claimed 32 lives.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Casinos are illegal in Thailand, but they are an important part of Cambodia’s tourism industry. Poipet is especially famous for its busy cross-border trade, tourism, and countless casinos. Local authorities must answer why nothing had been done to improve health and fire safety in the area despite repeated complaints. This is a national disgrace.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's too early to jump to conclusions. Potential factors could include faulty wiring, criminal intent, or government apathy. Right now, the nation is in mourning, and the focus must remain on rescuing the trapped and saving as many lives as possible instead of casting blame. Due process will ultimately yield the truth.

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Israel: Netanyahu Sworn in as PM

Facts

  • On Thursday, Benjamin Netanyahu was sworn in as Israel's PM, just moments after its parliament, known as the Knesset, voted 63-54 to approve his new government, which is reportedly the most far-right coalition in the country's history.
  • This marks Netanyahu's sixth term as PM and comes 18 months after he was ousted from power over corruption investigations. His coalition, however, won a victory in November in the country's fifth election in less than four years.
  • The rightward shift in the Israeli government has prompted concerns abroad, with neighboring Jordan's King Abdullah II saying he's prepared for conflict should Israel cross "red lines" on Jerusalem's holy sites.
  • Since 1967, Jordan has been the custodian of holy sites in the Old City of Jerusalem, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque atop the Temple Mount. Jewish visitors are allowed to go there but are barred from praying at the Temple Mount, while Muslims are allowed to freely visit and worship at the mosque.
  • Abdullah's warning came in the lead-up to Netanyahu's return in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, where he also expressed concern over the potential of widespread Palestinian unrest.
  • Netanyahu pushed back on concerns, highlighting his major priority as the new PM to sign peace agreements with Arab nations "to end the Israeli-Arab conflict." He also outlined other goals, such as addressing Iran's nuclear weapons and developing Israel's infrastructure.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

To stay in power, corruption-plagued Netanyahu has bowed to the demands of the most extreme elements of Israeli politics. His concessions to ultra-Orthodox and ultra-nationalist parties are a massive blow to Israeli democracy, the rule of law, and thus to the future of Israel. Moreover, by rejecting the two-state solution, the new government is poised to risk fresh Arab-Israeli violence. It's time for Washington to end its ambiguity about Israel and stand up for democracy, as it otherwise does all over the world.

Pro-establishment narrative

Even before Netanyahu was sworn in, media activists warned that his new government poses a threat to Israeli democracy. However, these critics ignore the fact that Israel remains the only democracy in the Middle East and that it was the Israelis who wished Netanyahu back in power. Washington should think twice before joining the doomsayers' camp and alienating its closest ally in the region. Instead of jumping to conclusions and demonizing the coalition government, the actual political work should be evaluated as it happens.

Narrative C

As Israel's right-wing coalition takes control, all eyes are on Israel and how it will solve the religiously sensitive situation around the Temple Mount. Jordanian officials have warned that any attempt by the new government to change the status quo at the site could threaten peaceful relations with Jordan and inflame the entire region, as it has before. While the new PM has sent reassuring messages, this will be a major test for Netanyahu's new right-wing government.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by Nov. 8, 2065, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Australia to Extradite Former US Marine Over China Training

Facts

  • The Australian Attorney-General’s Dept. has approved a request to extradite former US Marine Corps pilot Daniel Duggan to the US. He is accused of money laundering and conspiracy to export defense services to the PRC by training Chinese pilots.
  • This comes as Australia's Extradition Act 1988 and Australia's extradition treaty with the US required AG Mark Dreyfus to make a decision by Dec. 25 following a formal extradition order lodged on Dec. 9.
  • Duggan was arrested by federal police in a regional New South Wales town on Oct. 21 at the request of the FBI, but his lawyer has maintained his innocence. The extradition matter is next listed before a New South Wales magistrate on Jan. 10.
  • Earlier this month, a US court unsealed the 2017 indictment on Duggan claiming that he broke US arms control laws for allegedly providing military training to PRC pilots through a South African flight school between 2010 and 2012, before renouncing US citizenship.
  • Other unnamed co-conspirators were listed in the indictment including one British and one South African national who were executives of "a flying academy based in South Africa with presence in China," and a Chinese national who acquired military information for the PRC military.
  • Despite recent media reports that dozens of British pilots were recruited to teach the Chinese armed forces to defeat western aircraft, the US Air Force claims not to be aware of ongoing efforts to recruit its pilots to train the Chinese military.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Any former military personnel that assists a foreign adversary, especially one like China, is a traitor to their country. The West cannot allow misguided, greedy, and naive pilots like Duggan to profit from weakening the US's military posture in Asia. All appropriate legal avenues to combat this crime must be taken to mitigate future incidents like this one.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though Duggan's actions may be morally and legally gray, his detention, and now extradition, is politically motivated as the US increasingly faces rising tensions with China. The case has been shrouded in secrecy since the start, and Duggan is being charged for actions that took place a decade ago. His treatment by Australian authorities has also been unjustifiably cruel, as he was held in isolation and classified as an "extreme high risk" inmate. There is more to this story than meets the eye.

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US Study: Abortion Bans May Increase Suicide Risk

Facts

  • According to a study by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), US women of reproductive age between 1974 and 2016 may have been at a higher risk of committing suicide due to abortion restrictions.
  • The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Psychiatry on Wednesday, found that 21 states had implemented at least one targeted regulation of abortion provider (TRAP) laws, such as regulating where abortions can be performed or minimum measurements for clinic room sizes.
  • The study's authors found that the suicide rate of reproductive-age women in those states was almost 6% higher than in prior years when the laws weren't enforced.
  • Furthermore, it found no such association among older women and ruled out factors such as the economy or a state’s political climate.
  • Though the findings don't prove that abortion restrictions directly cause higher suicide rates and the study didn't account for the experiences or mental health of individual women, the researchers say the analytical approach was one of the most rigorous methods to enable causal inference.
  • As the data collection dates only to 2016, the study doesn't include the impact of new abortion regulations implemented in the wake of SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade.

Spin

Left narrative

Both empirical research and common sense tell us that the fear of potentially having to carry a baby to term if one mistakenly gets pregnant only grows when abortion restrictions are enshrined into law. Most women who have abortions have already given birth at least once, meaning they understand the physical, emotional, and financial toll it will take on them if forced to endure another pregnancy.

Right narrative

While pro-abortion advocates label it a myth, studies have also shown that having abortions can lead to increased depression, anxiety, post-abortion stress syndrome, eating disorders, and suicide among women. Sometimes these effects come immediately, and sometimes they appear years after the procedure, but either way, women aren't being given all the facts related to this issue, and that is what's dangerous to their mental and physical well-being.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Three Countries Tie Child Deaths to India-Based Cough Syrups

Facts

  • On Wednesday, Uzbekistan's health ministry announced that at least 18 children have died after taking the India-based pharmaceutical company Marion Biotech's "Doc-1 Max" cough syrup. In response to the claims, the manufacturer has halted production.
  • A batch of Doc-1 Max, marketed by the company as a cold and flu treatment, was consumed by 21 children suffering from acute respiratory disease, 18 of whom died. The batch, imported into Uzbekistan by Quaramax Medical, was part of a batch containing ethylene glycol, which is considered a toxic substance by the ministry.
  • India's health ministry has launched an investigation into the deaths. The nation's Central Drugs Standard Control Organization is working with Uzbek authorities on a joint inspection of the Noida facility where the syrup is manufactured.
  • The World Health Organization in October issued an alert advising India's regulators to halt sales of cough syrups made by New Delhi-based Maiden Pharmaceuticals following a similar incident in Gambia this past July. Gambian medical authorities in July saw a jump in kidney injuries to young children correlated to cough syrups and later determined that 70 had died.
  • After testing the products, the WHO determined the cough syrups contained "unacceptably high" amounts of two toxic substances, with Indonesia also halting sales following the deaths of at least 199 people from acute kidney injury since August. Families of the deceased have demanded compensation from the Indonesian government.
  • India responded to the allegations in a letter to the WHO, claiming its alert was issued "prematurely" and there is no definitive link between the deaths in Gambia and the India-based products. India also alleged that the WHO's actions have caused damage to India's pharmaceutical industry.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

India has earned its place as a world leader in pharmaceuticals, with its $42B industry serving a critical role in the COVID pandemic by producing vaccines and cementing its title as the "pharmacy of the world." The Indian government will continue to expand by focusing on drug production and consistently improving quality control. The country's commitment to healthcare and pharmaceuticals will serve as an engine of growth for the Indian economy, its people, and the global community.

Establishment-critical narrative

While India is the world's largest exporter of generic medications, India-based pharmaceuticals face significant challenges in the world market. The government needs to step up and provide support like academic collaboration and technology transfer. India's drug producers are begging the public sector to help them better compete — especially if these products are being sent to developing nations. It's not fair to blame the nation's pharma industry alone for any shortcomings.

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Jan. 6 Committee Withdraws Trump Subpoena

Facts

  • The House Jan. 6 committee has formally withdrawn its subpoena of former Pres. Trump, with committee chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) citing "the imminent end of our investigation" in a statement sent to Trump's lawyers.
  • Following the news, Trump issued a statement on Truth Social arguing that the "Unselect Committee of political Thugs [sic]" likely made the decision "because they knew I did nothing wrong, or they were about to lose in Court [sic]."
  • The subpoena was originally issued in October — ordering Trump to testify as well as hand over documents and communications such as phone calls, texts, and emails — though he promptly sued to block it, making it unlikely the committee would ever receive its requests.
  • The move is the latest in a series of subpoena withdrawals, including for former Trump advisor Sebastian Gorka, former White House advisor Stephen Miller, and elections lawyer Cleta Mitchell. It also follows the committee's recommendation last week that Trump should be barred from holding any future office under the 14th Amendment's disqualification clause.
  • Though the subpoena's original intent was to obtain Trump's documents by Nov. 4 and depose him starting Nov. 14, the counter-lawsuit has stalled proceedings while the committee is set to officially expire on Dec. 31.
  • As the committee came to its conclusion, it also issued a final referral to the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) on four potential criminal charges, though they hold no legal weight. However, the DOJ has been conducting its own probe into Jan. 6 including investigating Trump.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

As anyone following the committee could tell, this subpoena was purposefully dead on arrival and only issued to create an anti-Trump media cycle the month leading up to the midterm elections. While that goal was certainly achieved, the subpoena itself was still a failure by the committee. It centered the entire so-called "investigation" around Trump and was never able to get what it wanted from him.

Democratic narrative

The committee's goal from the beginning was to collect evidence of wrongdoing by both Trump and his associates before and on the day of Jan. 6, 2021, which is exactly what it achieved. After months of revelations showing Trump's attempts to change the election and subsequently provoke an insurrection, the American people said enough is enough and voted against almost every Trump-endorsed candidate in November.

Nerd narrative

There's a 37% chance that any US court will rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Biden Admin. Approves $180M in Military Aid for Taiwan

Facts

  • The US Dept. of State on Wednesday approved the sale of a $180M military package to Taiwan, including Volcano anti-tank systems, cargo trucks, ammunition, and logistics support packages.
  • The Volcano can disperse anti-armor and anti-personnel mines over a large area within minutes. The package also includes dummy and test rounds for the M87A1 anti-tank system, as well as cargo trucks on which it's mounted.
  • The systems would serve as one level of Taiwan's defense, including placing naval mines in the Taiwan Strait ahead of an invasion. They would likely be deployed to the few beaches suitable for an amphibious landing.
  • Taiwan's defense ministry said the sale would take effect in roughly a month and will help boost its asymmetric warfare capacity amid China's increased military activities, which Taipei views as a severe military threat.
  • The sale, which the State Dept. says "serves US national, economic, and security interests," comes amid a long history of US military support to the island under the Taiwan Relations Act. The Biden Admin. in September approved more than $1.1B in weapons such as anti-ship and air-to-air missiles.
  • The PRC has been applying geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan — including air force missions near the island over the last three years.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The United State's recent push to provide defensive military aid to Taiwan is an effort to prevent China from even attempting an invasion in the first place. China seems to only be ramping up both its military capabilities and aggressive rhetoric toward the island. Taiwan must begin taking faster steps toward completing its asymmetric defense strategy to defend itself from aggression antithetical to a rules-based order.

Establishment-critical narrative

After decades of non-interference policies beginning under the Carter and Nixon administrations, recent US presidents have betrayed the "one China" policy. Even before Nancy Pelosi's reckless trip to the island — in which she was escorted by warships and aircraft carriers — the Biden admin. pondered expensive military-industrial complex weapons packages for Taipei. This is a recipe for unnecessary war and a gross waste of taxpayer funds.

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Twitter Back Running After Outage

Facts

  • Tens of thousands of users were unable to access Twitter, according to the web monitoring tool DownDetector, and instead received error messages for several hours Wednesday. More than five hours later, the issue seemed to be resolved.
  • It appeared the outage mostly affected those attempting to access the social media platform via a web browser. Many of those users were automatically logged out and shown an error message stating, “Something went wrong, but don't fret — it's not your fault. Let's try again.”
  • Although it’s unknown what caused the outage, and the Twitter Support account didn’t mention anything about it, Twitter CEO Elon Musk previously tweeted the platform was rolling out “significant backend server architecture changes” to speed up the site.
  • In response to complaints and discussions about the outage, Musk responded via Tweet to some users who were unaffected, “Works for me.”
  • Musk, who purchased Twitter in October for $44B, has overseen a hectic transition that’s included the departure of many employees, including some who were responsible for site maintenance.

Spin

Narrative A

This outage is everyone’s fears come to life. Musk was warned about his cost-slashing measures, including cutting back on staff and data centers. If there was a software update gone wrong, it might be that no one was available to deal with it. This could be a sign of more troubles ahead.

Narrative B

Don’t blame Musk for this outage. There were global outages in February and July, long before Musk purchased the platform. And plenty of other big technology companies, such as Rogers Telecommunications in Canada, have suffered through long outages this year. That’s the way life in the tech world goes.

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