Bankman-Fried Pleads Not Guilty
On Tuesday, founder and former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty in a New York federal court. He was charged with fraud, conspiracy, violations of campaign finance law, and money laundering.
Prosecutors allege that under Bankman-Fried’s behest, FTX transferred billions in customer investments to his trading firm Alameda Research. A trial has been scheduled to start October 2, 2023, with Bankman-Fried facing up to 115 years in prison.
Pro-establishment narrative
A plea of not guilty was Bankman-Fried’s only choice at this point because prosecutors don’t seem inclined to work with him now that they have Ellison and Wang on their side. But the government’s plea agreement with Bankman-Fried, who already admitted he made mistakes that he didn’t think were criminal, hints at something else that might happen before he gets to trial.
Establishment-critical narrative
People in power often cross ethical bridges to protect themselves and their friends. Bankman-Fried was a major political donor. White House logs reveal he met with Biden administration officials four times in 2022. It won't be surprising if prosecutors strike a plea deal with Bankman-Fried and hide whatever role he played in the FTX fraud to protect the highest echelons of government power.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to at least 252 months in prison before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US: FDA Allows Abortion Pill Sales at Retail Pharmacies
On Tuesday night, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a regulatory change to allow retail pharmacies to dispense abortion pills in US states where medical termination of pregnancy is legal.
Previously, the drug "mifepristone" — the first pill used in the two-drug regimen for medication abortions — could be dispensed only by a handful of mail-order pharmacies or by specially certified doctors and healthcare facilities.
Right narrative
This move endangers women with its dishonesty over the risks of abortion pills, which have led to at least 3k women suffering complications and 28 deaths since their approval, and provides no protection to unborn children who may survive. The Biden administration's pro-abortion extremism will further allow retail pharmacies to funnel abortion pills into states where abortion is banned — an act that undercuts the Supreme Court's verdict.
Left narrative
The benefits of mifepristone far outweigh the risks, and this decision could change the conversation about abortion. As a step in the right direction for health equity, the regulatory change will empower patients across a broad spectrum, including people of color, immigrants, rural populations, and teenagers. Access to abortion pills isn't a magic solution to the end of abortion rights, but it can blunt the fallout.
Cynical narrative
While the move paves a way to ensure women's legal access to abortion isn't entirely shut off, the question remains — can US states block the use of abortion pills even though they are FDA approved? The ball is in the retail pharmacies' court, which will now have to weigh whether or not to offer the drug following federal and state laws given the political controversy surrounding abortion.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 315: Russia Revises Makiivka Death Toll to 89, Blames Phones
The death toll from a New Year's Eve attack on a temporary Russian barracks in the Donetsk city of Makiivka has risen to 89, Russia's defense ministry said late on Tuesday.
Initially, 63 soldiers were reported killed, but the figure rose following further searches of the debris, the ministry said. In a press conference, Lt. Gen. Sergey Sevryukov told reporters that prohibited and "large-scale use" of personal phones was to blame.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia's attacks on Druzhkivka are another example of its actions as a terrorist state. The ice rink was beloved by many in the community and was used to deliver humanitarian aid. A bus station, a church, and a hotel were also damaged.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's attacks on Druzhkivka targeted the rocket launchers and weaponry that targeted Makiivka. Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries were also killed. These attacks were on legitimate military targets.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Colombia: ELN Rebel Group Denies Ceasefire
Colombia's largest remaining armed group, the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN), on Tuesday rejected claims that it was part of a ceasefire agreement with the government announced by Pres. Gustavo Petro on Dec. 31.
Petro, himself a former guerrilla member, had claimed the ELN and four other major illegal paramilitary groups had signed a six-month bilateral ceasefire agreement that would include a "national and international verification mechanism" and specific conditions for each group.
Establishment-critical narrative
As Petro is busy fantasizing about a ceasefire with the ELN, the killing in the country continues. Indeed, a historic peace deal with the FARC was reached in 2016, but the vacuum has been filled by a myriad of armed groups and the ELN, while violence and coca production have only increased. To effectively combat organized crime and dry up the drug swamp, the government would have to tackle structural reforms while faced with security, logistical, and political challenges. It's doubtful that Petro will bring "total peace" to Colombia.
Pro-establishment narrative
There's no doubt that Petro faces a mammoth task with his plan to bring "total peace" to Colombia. The murder rate exceeds that of Mexico, and drug trafficking is flourishing as seldom before. Nonetheless, over twenty criminal and armed groups, including the ELN and FARC offshoots, have expressed willingness to enter peace talks with Bogotá. In addition, there's a pro-government majority in Congress and a population that elected Petro precisely because the stakes could hardly be higher. The task is daunting, but if Petro succeeds, it could ripple throughout Latin America.
Sri Lanka To Hold First Election Since Unrest
Sri Lankan officials announced on Wednesday that local government polls would be held by the end of February, marking the country's first nationwide elections since former Pres. Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled and resigned in the face of widespread protests.
The National Election Commission stated it will accept nominations from Jan. 18-21 for the local council polls, which have been postponed since March of last year, adding that a date for the elections would be set a week thereafter.
Narrative A
Local elections must be welcomed as the first step to restoring normalcy in Sri Lanka following months of nationwide protests along with political and economic turmoil. Softening dissent and providing stability for the country, however, will require general elections so as to ensure those implementing reforms have a public mandate.
Narrative B
It should be evident by now that elections alone will not solve the Sri Lankan crisis as it has been engendered by the very nature of the country's political system, which has focused on short-term planning for more than 75 years. Though Sri Lanka is bankrupt, politicians remain unable to join efforts to agree on an economic framework to lift the country out of its chaos.
Twitter to Allow Political Advertising
After Twitter banned political ads in 2019 under former CEO and co-founder Jack Dorsey's belief that such messages should be "earned" and not "bought," the company's new owner, Elon Musk, announced on Tuesday that it would be relaxing such policies to boost revenue.
The new policy will include an overturning of the previous ban on cause-based ads — ads that encourage action related to issues such as the environment or social equality — in the US, though the company provided no details beyond saying the ads should be geo-restricted.
Left narrative
Musk's practice of reckless trial and error is why the company is running dry financially. After firing the majority of its staff and reinstating far-right conspiracy theorists, advertisers were rightfully scared away from the platform. Instead of acknowledging these poor business decisions, Musk has instead decided to retain his erroneous policies as he continues his pursuit of staying afloat.
Right narrative
Beyond simply growing its revenue, this policy change will give conservatives even more of a voice on social media. After already opening up previously-censored free thought surrounding COVID, disenfranchised political candidates and advocates will now be able to amplify their messages at a time when corporate-government censorship is being brought to light.
Florida Gov. DeSantis Sworn in for Second Term
Amid questions surrounding a potential 2024 presidential run, Ron DeSantis on Tuesday was sworn into his second term as Governor of Florida. He was accompanied by his wife, three children, and former Gov. Jeb Bush.
DeSantis took his oath in front of the state's Capitol, where the Tallahassee streets were renamed "Ron DeSantis Way" for the day. He spoke before more than 4K attendees as banners hung behind him that read "The Free State of Florida."
Democratic narrative
DeSantis, like his fellow Republicans, is against real governance and would rather spend his time targeting the so-called "woke" agenda with authoritarian impulses. DeSantis should be careful — despite being hyped by supporters as the future face of the GOP — as his continual onslaught against minorities and progressive values may come back to bite him on a national stage.
Republican narrative
As the Republicans in Washington debate which establishment elitist to anoint as House speaker, DeSantis' inauguration speech has inspired further praise and speculation surrounding a 2024 presidential run. Rallying against far-left ideology, global elites, and government overreach, DeSantis is not only a top contender for the White House but someone who could co-headline the primary circuit with Trump.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
McConnell Breaks US Senate Leadership Record
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) became the longest-serving Senate party leader on Tuesday, surpassing the late Sen. Mike Mansfield (D-Mont.). McConnell became party leader in 2007.
McConnell celebrated his accomplishment by delivering a speech to the Senate floor, during which he recounted the history of past party leaders and their respective styles and even praised Mansfield.
Pro-establishment narrative
McConnell is the archetype of a strong and intelligent statesman. He has demonstrated a willingness to reach across the aisle, enjoying good relationships with many high-ranking Democratic leaders. Indeed, his style of politics has been marked by compromise and the ability to craft fair and intelligent deals. Even as the Republican Party experiences internal strife, McConnell's political acumen has guaranteed his position as a top leader.
Establishment-critical narrative
McConnell is just another establishment snake in the grass who only looks out for big business and the political class. His laundry list of betrayals to the conservative movement includes an ever-increasing national debt, continued illegal immigration, the stagnation of real wages, bailing out banks in 2008, and enacting Obamacare in 2010. More recently, he has enabled Biden to pass leftist policies, including giving Ukraine billions in aid, tightening gun laws, and attacking “MAGA Republicans.”
Israeli Police Arrest Two for Desecrating Jerusalem Cemetery
On Friday, Israeli police said they arrested two teenagers, aged 14 and 18, suspected of vandalizing a Protestant cemetery in Jerusalem on Jan. 1. The unidentified suspects are reportedly residents of central Israel.
Jerusalem's Anglican Archbishop Hosam Naoum had condemned the desecration of the cemetery in Mount Zion on Wednesday, calling it a cowardly and disgusting act and a "clear hate crime" towards Christians.
Narrative A
The New Year's Day attack is the latest sign of tension between Christians and Jewish extremists in Israel. In recent years, Jewish extremists — seeking to cleanse their nation of religious minorities — have carried out acts of vandalism at Christian sites across the country without fear of prosecution or justice. If the Netanyahu government resists preventive measures to protect the community, radical Israeli groups will ultimately drive Christians out.
Narrative B
While the perpetrators of this incident must be held to account, allegations that Christians are frequently the target of sustained attacks by radical groups are baseless and distorted. Israel is a democratic state and has finally formed a popular government. Benjamin Netanyahu is committed to protecting the country from radical Islamists and its citizens from coercion, irrespective of their faith. The West must support Israel instead of tarnishing its image with propaganda.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Suspect in University of Idaho Murder Waives Extradition
Bryan Kohberger, the 28-year-old suspect in the high-profile murder of four University of Idaho students, agreed to waive his extradition from his home state of Pennsylvania and face murder charges in Idaho.
Kohberger left Monroe County Correctional Facility in Pennsylvania and is in the custody of State Police, according to Warden Garry Haidle. He was scheduled to land in Moscow, Idaho, on Wednesday, but his arrival has not been confirmed.
Narrative A
While Kohberger has yet to be proven guilty, his arrest and decision to waive extradition is a major turning point in a complicated and heinous case. The suspect — ironically hailed a brilliant academic in the field of criminology — made some of the most elementary mistakes that led to his arrest. It's now time for the full force of the court to bring justice to the victims and their families.
Narrative B
While this latest development is a breakthrough, Kohberger should be presumed innocent until proven guilty and no conclusions should be drawn before this trial plays out. Authorities should be left to investigate, and the victim's families should be allowed to mourn without the intrusion from social media, which has tainted an already tragic case with rumors and speculation.