05 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

Amazon to Cut 18K Jobs Amid Rising Costs

Facts

  • On Wednesday, US multinational tech giant Amazon announced it would cut over 18K jobs — roughly 6% of its corporate workforce — in an ongoing effort to rein in costs.
  • In a letter to employees, CEO Andy Jassy cited the “uncertain economy” and Amazon's decision to hire “rapidly over the last several years” as reasons for the cuts, which will primarily affect staff in Amazon Stores and PXT organizations.
  • The cutbacks come after Amazon in October reported making $127.1B in sales, an increase of 15% from a year earlier. Despite returning to profitability, the e-commerce giant reported $2.5B in operating losses in its international operations.
  • Furthermore, the news of massive layoffs comes the day after Amazon took out an unsecured $8B loan from several lenders including TD Securities. Amazon’s stock rose 2% in after-hours trade, though the increase follows a slump of almost 50% in 2022.
  • This is the latest in a series of tech industry layoffs, after San Francisco-based company Salesforce fired 10% of its staff on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta fired 13% of its staff in November 2022.
  • Bezos stated that the company will offer severance to its laid-off employees, including a separation payment, transitional health insurance benefits, and external job placement support.

Spin

Narrative A

Although the pandemic tech boom allowed companies to increase their workforces by as much as double, recent economic woes have, unfortunately, shattered that brief market boom. The US Federal Reserve has reacted to inflation by hiking interest rates, leading to a reduction in available venture capital while digital ad revenue is also down. The firms that over-hired during the pandemic are now being forced to downsize.

Narrative B

Layoffs are the old-school way of dealing with recession. Companies should today find alternative strategies because social media has made everyone a workers' rights activist with a global microphone. Beyond the poor optics, companies that conduct mass layoffs have been proven to perform more poorly than those that avoid them because of the cost of restructuring and the low morale among remaining staff.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the annual US unemployment rate will be at least 6.06% in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US: Mastermind of College Admissions Scam Sentenced

Facts

  • William "Rick" Singer, the architect of the largest US college admissions scam, was sentenced on Wednesday to 3.5 years in federal prison for helping children of the rich and famous secure admission to elite schools and universities through cheating and bribery.
  • In addition to the prison time, the 62-year-old was sentenced to three years of supervised release and ordered to forfeit over $10M. Singer is due to report to prison on Feb. 27.
  • Prosecutors had sought a six-year sentence for Singer, whose extensive cooperation with the government's sprawling "Operation Varsity Blues" investigation helped authorities arrest dozens of celebrity parents and athletic coaches in March 2019.
  • Singer – who pleaded guilty to racketeering conspiracy, money laundering conspiracy, conspiracy to defraud the US, and obstruction of justice in 2019 – reportedly paid out $7M in bribes while pocketing $15M for himself.
  • Through his college admissions counseling firm, The Key, and its charity, The Key Worldwide Foundation, Singer reportedly employed illicit tactics to aid applicants in cheating on standardized tests, such as the SAT, and bribed coaches to assist non-athletes entrance into universities, including Yale, Georgetown, and USC.
  • Celebrities who served prison time in the Operation Varsity Blues scandal include "Full House" actor Lori Loughlin, her fashion designer husband Mossimo Giannulli, and "Desperate Housewives" star Felicity Huffman.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The desperation of wealthy parents to get their children into prestigious schools is astounding. The fraud not only reflects the extraordinary lengths these influential people can go to but also exposes the vulnerability of a flawed education system. While the story may have ended with the culprits behind bars, the fund-raising-admission process link is left unscathed, leaving the rampant world of college elitism intact.

Pro-establishment narrative

Although there are certainly monetary barriers to attending prestigious schools, the unraveling of this scam attests to the steps that have been taken to address this. While the deeply integrated classism in the prestigious US college admissions system cannot be changed overnight, Singer's sentencing is a start.

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PRC, Philippines Commit to Peaceful South China Sea Solution

Facts

  • China and the Philippines announced on Thursday that they would establish a direct line of communication regarding the South China Sea and resolve their disputes in the contested waterway through peaceful avenues.
  • The Philippines and China signed a framework agreement that contains 14 elements aimed at reducing tensions and strengthening economic collaboration. The new accord comes as both nations strive to mend a damaged relationship after the Philippines won an arbitral ruling in 2016 that invalidated China's claims in the South China Sea.
  • After Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping in Beijing, both leaders stated they would respect each nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity. They also agreed to resume talks on oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea and discuss cooperation on renewable energy, electric vehicles, and nuclear power.
  • Both nations also declared the importance of maintaining peace and stability as well as freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. They will also hold an annual dialogue on security issues.
  • Marcos said he had made a case for Filipino fishermen who have been denied access to their traditional fishing grounds by China's navy and coastguard. Pres. Xi promised they would find a solution to allow them back into their fishing waters.
  • Both sides also renewed an agreement on Xi's Belt-and-Road Initiative. PRC investors pledged $22.8B in renewable energy and other infrastructure projects in the Philippines.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

The Philippines' position is that there is no territorial conflict with China. The reality is that China is claiming territory that belongs to the Philippines. The Philippines will continue to work with China and the other parties through diplomacy and dialogue. However, the Filipino position is clear it will not give up even a square inch of the territory of the Republic of the Philippines to any foreign power.

Pro-China narrative

China has a solid historical and legal basis for its claims. China has never changed the basis or scope of its claims and has worked with ASEAN countries to maintain regional stability. The most significant risk to peace and stability in the South China Sea is the inappropriate intervention and frequent interference by countries outside the region. Nations without territorial claims in the South China Sea should respect efforts made by countries in the region to maintain peace and stability.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance there will be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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India: Supreme Court Halts Demolition of 4K Homes

Facts

  • On Thursday, India's Supreme Court stayed the decision of the Uttarakhand High Court to demolish over 4K homes located along the railway line in the Banbhulpura district of the town of Haldwani, which would have rendered over 50k people, primarily Muslims, homeless.
  • The Supreme Court ruled that the residents, reportedly 25K voters and 15K children living in a 78-acre tract, could not be evicted by force without a thorough review of their rights to the property, deeming this case a "human issue."
  • Protests erupted after railway authorities carried out a survey of "illegal encroachments" in the railway land following a removal order by the Uttarakhand High Court that would result in the demolition of houses, temples, mosques, and schools.
  • Activists and politicians that joined demonstrations blamed the action on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), claiming that the sudden illegality of these buildings was due to the area's Muslim-majority population.
  • Following Thursday's ruling, residents of the area gathered in two locations, women and men separately, to pray and express their gratitude for the court's humanitarian perspective on their plight.
  • The next hearing is scheduled for Feb. 7, with the top court asking the Government of Uttarakhand and the railways to find a "practical" way out as decade-long residents of the area had claimed land through leases and purchases from auction after migrations in 1947.

Spin

Left narrative

This is but the latest in a series of eviction and demolition schemes happening across India. These actions target so-called "illegal" sites that have been around for decades, operating legally and within the full view of the government until it no longer benefits leaders. Human beings who have lives and attachments to the locations are uprooted simply because they're seen as poor and disposable.

Right narrative

This case went on for six years in the Uttarakhand High Court, which ordered the illegal encroachments into government lands belonging to the utility to be removed peacefully. Yet, the Islamist-Leftist-Liberal faction keeps trying to depict the administration as the villain by turning a legitimate eviction drive into a human rights issue. As long as the law applies to all in India — Hindus and Muslims — squatters will never be the victims.

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Multiple US States Furthering Anti-Homeless Policies

Facts

  • As numerous states across the US pass more restrictions on homeless encampments, including fines, imprisonment, and forced hospitalization measures, advocates are raising concerns over the welfare of homeless individuals.
  • A new Missouri state law, which was signed by Gov. Mike Parson in June and took effect on Jan. 1, has made it a crime for anyone to sleep on state property. It also imposes up to a $750 fine or 15 days in prison for multiple offenses of sleeping in public parks or under city highways.
  • After the law took effect authorities also decreased funds for homeless services and changed other funding streams. The law has faced backlash, including from Parson-appointed mental health director Valerie Huhn, who said homeless people will have a harder time finding housing with criminal records.
  • In NYC under Mayor Eric Adams, city officials have outlawed homeless people from sleeping on the subway or riding the trains all night. While cutting homeless services by $400M, the city also arrested 400 people last year for "being outstretched."
  • As New York City attempts to combat its crisis of between 60K and 80K people living on the city's streets, Adams in November also announced plans to allow first responders to forcefully hospitalize the mentally ill who "cannot support their basic human needs to an extent that causes them harm."
  • In Los Angeles, the city council voted to ban homelessness encampments within 500 feet (152 meters) of schools. And in Chicago, protests emerged over the city's plan to remove donated winterized tents for homeless people to make room for street cleaning.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The issue of homelessness is not a left or right issue, but rather a health crisis affecting both homeless and non-homeless city residents. This is why some of the most liberal cities — like Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, and Washington, DC — have begun to outlaw such dangerous encampments. Leaving mentally ill or drug-addicted people vulnerable to busy streets and violent crime is not compassion, it's reckless.

Establishment-critical narrative

With nowhere else to go, homeless people only endure further hardship and trauma when their encampments are bulldozed away. These laws don't just remove inconvenient tents, but also the food, clothing, and other goods these people require to stay alive. Cities are deciding to scrap vital programs without providing viable alternatives. With political and economic life embracing austerity, these policies are inhumane and cruel.

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Day 316: Ukraine Rejects Orthodox Christmas Ceasefire

Facts

  • For the first time since the conflict began last February, Ukraine is set to receive French and American armored vehicles following announcements from presidents Macron and Biden on Wednesday. Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Western counterparts but pressed them to provide tanks — which are used primarily to break enemy lines, while armored vehicles are fighting vehicles that transport larger numbers of soldiers.
  • Without specifying numbers, France's Macron said his country would be sending Ukraine the AMX-10 RC and Bastion armored vehicles.
  • In his nightly address, Zelenskyy thanked Macron and added: "This is what sends a clear signal to all our other partners: there is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with Western-type tanks. And this is very important to restore security for all Ukrainians and peace for all Europeans."
  • Biden's announcement that the US would be sending Bradley armored vehicles came after Zelenskyy's address, but also made no mention of tanks — namely, Abrams tanks which Zelenskyy has previously called for.
  • However, on Wednesday, Poland signed a $1.4B agreement to purchase its second batch of US M1A1 Abrams tanks. US officials said Poland was the first European ally to be receiving the equipment.
  • Meanwhile, with weeks of the heaviest fighting taking place around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, with heavy losses for Russia and Ukraine, an unnamed US administration official told Reuters that, according to its intelligence, heavy fighting is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, with the outcome uncertain as Russians have made incremental progress.
  • Over the past day, Ukraine's armed forces said it destroyed two Russian munitions depots near Bakhmut as well as one in Lyman and one in Avdiivka. The claim couldn't be independently confirmed.
  • Elsewhere, heavy Russian shelling continued to be reported in the Kherson region where four civilians were reported killed and three others were injured in attacks over the past day. One civilian also died in Dnipropetrovsk; three civilians were killed and three more were injured in Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia; and in Kharkiv, one person was killed and two more were injured in a mine explosion.
  • Meanwhile, as Christmas Eve approaches on Jan. 6 in Eastern Orthodoxy, Ukraine has rejected a Russian-proposed ceasefire following calls from Russia's head of its orthodox church, Patriarch Kirill. The proposed détente was set to last 36 hours from midday Moscow time on Friday, to midnight of the following day.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia's Patriarch Kirill is not an authority in global orthodoxy, and worse, he has openly supported Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The proposed ceasefire was nothing but a cynical trap and Russian propaganda.

Pro-Russia narrative

As countries that predominantly follow the Eastern Orthodox tradition, Russia and Ukraine should observe the ceasefire so that people can safely celebrate and worship on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

READ FULL STORY

Turkish Court Suspends Funding for Pro-Kurdish Party

Facts

  • Turkey's Constitutional Court on Thursday ruled 8-7 in favor of freezing Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) bank accounts holding treasury funds while a case on banning the party over alleged ties to the terrorist-designated Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) continues.
  • This decision, which deprives the second-largest opposition group in the Turkish parliament of key revenue ahead of June's general elections, comes as the HDP was reportedly due to receive $29M in treasury funding this year.
  • Next Tuesday, chief prosecutor Bekir Şahin is due to plead his case to disband the party before the vote, and if the court rules against the HDP, it will be able to either dissolve the party or ban some of its members.
  • The HDP has been a significant political force since 2015, winning 80 parliament seats that year to temporarily prevent the ruling AKP from securing a majority. It garnered nearly 12% of the votes in the 2018 parliamentary elections and then helped the opposition win mayoral races in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019.
  • The party has denied accusations of acting on behalf of the PKK, which has waged an insurgency since 1984, claiming that it has been targeted by Erdoğan's government due to its past electoral success and growing appeal beyond Turkey's Kurdish-majority southeast region.
  • Though the HDP is not part of the six-party opposition alliance, it could become the kingmaker as polls suggest that neither the AKP nor the unified opposition bloc will win a majority in parliament.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

This temporary freezing of funds is just the latest step in the ongoing battle to combat the HDP's long list of wrongdoings. The party has long colluded with the terrorist PKK and its affiliated groups, transferring taxpayer money to and actively providing personnel in defiance of the democratic and universal rules of law to undermine the unity of the Turkish state.

Pro-establishment narrative

The continuous attempt to dissolve or otherwise limit the HDP — including through the dismissal of dozens of HDP politicians from office since 2015 — undermines the ability of Turkish voters to chose their representation, and is thus an attack on democracy and pluralism. This latest move must be condemned.

Cynical narrative

The court has clearly become an election tool for the ruling government; it's no coincidence that it ruled this way just months before general elections despite rejecting the same request twice in the past year.

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Canada's Peterson Challenges "Remedial" Training Order

Facts

  • Prominent Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson is mounting a legal challenge against the College of Psychologists of Ontario (CPO) over claims that the governing board is threatening to revoke his license to practice unless he attends a coaching program.
  • In a ruling publicized on Nov. 22, the CPO confirmed that it requires Peterson to complete a "Specified Continuing Education or Remedial Program" in order to "address issues regarding professionalism in public statements."
  • Peterson, calling the program a “social media communications retraining,” filed a Notice of Application for judicial review with the Ontario Divisional Court. He also wrote a letter to PM Justin Trudeau — published in the National Post — detailing the situation.
  • In a series of Tweets on Wednesday, Peterson commented on the CPO’s requirement, asserting that it's politically targeting professionals who challenge the existing political order.
  • Citing confidentiality reasons, the CPO hasn't outlined specific public statements of concern that led to its ruling.
  • Since coming to fame in 2016, Peterson has cumulated more than 15M followers across social media and sold millions of tickets to his talk shows. However, he has also been a source of controversy: some have accused his tweets of being “transphobic, sexist and racist,” and his comments on transgenderism have prompted a wide range of reactions.

Spin

Left narrative

Jordan Peterson is known for decrying “victim culture,” yet he loves to play the victim. His roots are in academia, but since becoming a public figure, he has left teaching, citing reasons that don't really make sense. Not only is he a hugely controversial figure, but also a tremendously influential one, which brings a set of responsibilities he's not adhering to. Until he does, he must stay in his lane of academia.

Right narrative

Let’s just call it what it is Jordan Peterson is having his professional career and reputation threatened by political bullies. The only “wrongdoing” Peterson has committed is dissenting from the prevailing woke ideology. Professional bodies are supposed to ensure the competency of practitioners, not police language and political beliefs.

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Israel: Longest-Serving Palestinian Prisoner Released

Facts

  • Karim Younis, who was convicted in 1983 of the kidnapping and murder of Israeli soldier Avi Bromberg in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and is the longest-serving Palestinian prisoner in an Israeli prison, was released on Thursday.
  • Younis — dressed in a traditional Palestinian shawl — was greeted by family, friends, and supporters in his hometown of Ara, who chanted slogans and carried him on their shoulders.
  • Younis, who became a significant Palestinian figure in prison for his written political works and calls for agreements with Israel, is an Israeli citizen.
  • He told Al Jazeera that Israeli authorities moved him multiple times before dropping him off at a bus station in Ranana, a town north of Tel Aviv. He then managed to contact his family with the support of a passerby.
  • The release is controversial, as some Israeli political figures have called for him to be re-arrested or stripped of his citizenship. Palestinian Authority Pres. Mahmoud Abbas stated that "the prisoners are all in our eyes, and they are all our brothers, and their cause is sacred for all of us."
  • Younis's release comes only a week after Israel swore in a new right-wing government. In addition, according to the Palestinian human rights group Addameer, around 4.7K Palestinians are being held in Israeli prisons and detention centers.

Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Younis is a hero of the Palestinian struggle for freedom from occupation and deserves to be celebrated for his sacrifice. Though extremists in the Israeli government may attack him rhetorically, Younis will continue to stand firm in his commitment to the Palestinian cause.

Pro-Israel narrative

Younis is not a hero, but simply a terrorist. His release is another example of the moral disparity in this conflict. Israelis are seen as oppressors and occupiers when they call for peace, but Palestinians are lauded as heroes for murdering Israelis.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by September 2068, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: Labor Market Strong Despite High Interest Rates

Facts

  • According to the "ADP National Employment" report — jointly developed between private company ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and released on Thursday — US private employment increased by 235K jobs last month.
  • Economists had expected a gain of approximately 150K. The news, alongside unemployment claims for the last week of December dropping to 204K from 223K, caused the S&P to open 1.2% lower as well as the Nasdaq to decrease by 1%.
  • It's believed that investors fear strong job numbers could push the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, which were raised seven times in 2022 totaling 4.25%.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Wednesday also indicated that there were 10.458M job openings at the end of November, equating to 1.74 jobs for every unemployed person.
  • The report also showed that annual pay increased 7.3% year-over-year. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP stated that the labor market hiring varied "sharply by industry and size" with large establishments seeing a drop in unemployment compared to small and medium companies.

Spin

Narrative A

Markets already want to know when the Federal Reserve will start making cuts. While many have warned US inflation hasn't turned the corner yet, the markets are demanding change. With the ADP report potentially causing the Fed to raise interest rates even further, it's perhaps too early to be having such a discussion.

Narrative B

The Fed must stop raising interest rates. Domestic inflation is driven by profits rather than wages, which interest rates don't directly affect. Impacting workers rather than businesses, the government should use other means to tame inflation such as windfall profit taxes and antitrust enforcement.

Cynical narrative

Discussion of a healthy labor market and raising interest rates often neglects the deadly fingerprints of COVID. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself correlated a tight job market to the pandemic deaths of nearly 500K American laborers. Factor in perhaps 4M long COVID sufferers, and the picture of just why the US job market is so "tight" has more context.

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