06 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

Interpol Arrests 'World's Most Wanted' Human Smuggler in Sudan

Facts

  • Interpol announced on Thursday that an Eritrean national characterized as the "most wanted human trafficker," Kidane Zekarias Habtemariam, was arrested in Sudan on Jan. 1 in an operation led by the United Arab Emirates.
  • On Interpol's radar since 2019, Habtemariam was the subject of two "Red Notices" for crimes related to migrant smuggling and human trafficking. He is accused of leading a major criminal organization behind the kidnapping, extortion, and murder of East African migrants.
  • This arrest — allegedly a major blow to an important smuggling route into Europe — came after police in the UAE focused on money laundering activities and found Habtemariam in Sudan, with Interpol stressing the importance of international cooperation.
  • Habtemariam had been on the run since February 2021, when he escaped from a courthouse in Ethiopia after a year in custody. Later, he was convicted in absentia to life in prison for starving and torturing migrants to death.
  • Habtemariam is also accused of running a migrant camp housing thousands of people in Libya, which has become the dominant transit point to Europe after the Noth African country plunged into chaos following a NATO-backed revolt in 2011.
  • He will now face trial in the UAE for money laundering and, after the case is closed, authorities will review the possibility of his extradition. Interpol expects more arrests as part of continuing investigations into human traffickers.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Arresting Habtemariam will surely disrupt a major people smuggling route into Europe and protect thousands of vulnerable people, as he was the mastermind behind his criminal organization's migrant transferring operations. In addition, it shows that the international community can hold dangerous people smugglers accountable for their crimes through collaboration.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though people smuggling gangs indeed put the lives of thousands of vulnerable migrants at risk and must be held accountable, the main focus of the international community ought to be on the core underlying issues that drive these patterns. Meanwhile, the EU should make it easier for these migrants to enter its territory and legally claim asylum.

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Day 317: Frontline Situation Unclear After Russia Declares Ceasefire

Facts

  • As Russians and many Ukrainians begin to celebrate their Christmas Eve on Friday, the situation on the frontlines remains uncertain after Russian Pres. Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire that lasts 36 hours from midday Moscow time to midnight the following day.
  • Putin's declaration came after Russia's leader of its Orthodox church, Patriarch Kirill, urged participants of the conflict to declare a ceasefire — allowing followers of the Eastern Orthodox faith to celebrate and worship on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. However, Putin's announcement was widely dismissed by Ukrainian, European, and US politicians.
  • Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy accused Russia of ignoring what he characterized as two previous "Peace Formulas" presented to Moscow that could've led to a cessation of hostilities. He further alleged the proposed ceasefire was a ploy to improve the position of Russian troops.
  • Zelenskyy said: "They want to use Christmas as a cover to at least briefly stop the advance of our guys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunition and mobilized men closer to our positions. What will this bring? Just another increase in the death toll."
  • Meanwhile, US Pres. Joe Biden said: "[Putin] was willing to bomb hospitals and nurseries and churches … on the 25th and New Year’s. I mean, I think he’s trying to find some oxygen."
  • Hours before the ceasefire was set to start, Russian shelling was reported in Kramatorsk in Donetsk, as well as in Kherson, killing one civilian and injuring four others. Ukrainian officials said that, over the past day, six civilians were killed and four were injured in Kherson, two people were killed and three were injured in Zaporizhzhia, while one was killed and three were injured in Donetsk and one person was injured in Kharkiv.
  • Meanwhile, Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk was reported on three occasions before the proposed ceasefire — Pro-Russia officials also alleged that Ukraine has continued to shell Russian positions in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia after the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect. However, initial reports of the attacks could not be independently confirmed.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Putin's hastily announced ceasefire is part of an information war aimed at discrediting Ukrainians. Ukraine could not be reasonably expected to suddenly meet its terms and Putin wants to leverage this to make Ukrainians seem unwilling to cooperate.

Pro-Russia narrative

A hand of Christian mercy was offered to Ukrainians, but this was swiped away. This helps Russians to know who they're dealing with and ensures that future opportunities for deception don't creep in.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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House Speaker Votes: McCarthy Still Lacks Critical Mass

Facts

  • On Friday, the US House of Representatives continued its historic stand-off, as Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) made progress towards securing house leadership, but still lacked a critical mass. As of Friday evening, McCarthy had lost all 13 rounds of voting with the House adjourning until 10:00 pm EST.
  • Despite failing to be elected speaker, McCarthy did make progress not seen in previous days. During the 12th round of voting, he flipped 14 Republicans who hadn't voted for him in previous rounds; in the 13th round, he flipped an additional vote. He expressed confidence in shortly clinching the role.
  • In the first speaker vote to pass nine rounds since 1860, McCarthy received 200 votes in the 10th and 11th rounds, with 12 Republicans voting for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and seven voting for Kevin Hern (R-Okla.). McCarthy reached 214 votes in the 12th and 13th rounds.
  • All 212 Democrats again voted unanimously for Rep. Hakeem Jefferies (D-N.Y.), leading anti-McCarthy Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to vote for Donald Trump in a largely symbolic jab at the GOP leader before switching to Hern in later rounds.
  • Gaetz's vote for Trump comes as the former president has publicly supported McCarthy for speaker, leading the Congressman from Florida to accuse Trump — whom he's long backed — of having a blind spot when it comes to personnel decisions. The remark was uncharacteristic of Gaetz, who is a leading figure in resisting McCarthy.
  • McCarthy has reportedly agreed to certain concessions to win over his current detractors, including lowering the threshold for a vote on replacing a speaker to one member and installing hard-right Freedom Caucus members to the rules committee, which has significant influence over voting on the budget.

Spin

Republican narrative

The remaining "Never Kevin" detractors seem to be campaigning on the House floor rather than fighting for substantive change. McCarthy has already promised to enact most of the concessions requested, but these so-called "anti-establishment" representatives are only pushing the talking points that their ill-advised consultants have fed them.

Conservative narrative

No matter what happens with this vote, Kevin McCarthy and his staunchest supporters — including Donald Trump — will have learned that even a year congressional veteran can't bully dissenters the way he could in the past. Even hardcore Trump supporters like Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert have ignored his endorsement because they understand that figures like McCarthy will never like them so long as they oppose the money-fueled elitism of the establishment GOP.

Cynical narrative

It's deeply ironic that amid Friday's voting turmoil and drama, only one Republican showed up to mark a Congressional memorial of the two-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riots of 2021. While the memorial was ongoing, much of the House of the GOP was reportedly on a Speaker conference call. This turbulence isn't a good look as America also reflects on a historic day.

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South Carolina Court Strikes Down Six-Week Abortion Ban

Facts

  • In a 3-2 ruling, South Carolina’s Supreme Court on Thursday declared the state’s law banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy unconstitutional under state law because it violates a woman’s right to privacy and doesn't provide a “reasonable period of time” for a woman to take steps to terminate her pregnancy.
  • The so-called “fetal heartbeat” law was challenged by two South Carolina physicians, a women’s clinic in the city of Greenville and Planned Parenthood.
  • The ban, which required patients seeking an abortion to undergo an ultrasound to search for a “fetal heartbeat,” was originally signed into law by Republican Gov. Henry McMaster in 2021, but almost instantly faced legal challenges and was put on hold.
  • It took effect briefly after SCOTUS ruled in June 2022 in Dobbs v. Jackson that states had the authority to make their own laws with regard to abortion. But legal challenges put it back on hold.
  • South Carolina maintains a ban on abortions after 20 weeks beyond fertilization. And the state Supreme Court’s narrow ruling allows for future attempts to limit abortion access.

Spin

Left narrative

This is a monumental victory in the battle to protect abortion rights, especially in the South. Although other state courts will have different political makeups, and their constitutions will have different language, every state that recognizes a constitutional right to abortion will set an example for other states.

Right narrative

The court was wrong to lump abortion rights in with a right to privacy, and there’s nothing in the state constitution that justifies abortions. Several other states have adopted similar “heartbeat” laws to protect the lives of the unborn, proving their legality. This ruling was judicial overreach; the legislature should be able to limit abortion as it sees fit.

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Harvard Reverses Decision on Fellowship for Former Human Rights Watch Head

Facts

  • The dean of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, Douglas Elmendorf, on Thursday reversed his decision to block Ken Roth, the former head of Human Rights Watch (HRW), from becoming a senior fellow at the institution.
  • The decision, which was made earlier this month, sparked intense controversy and criticism regarding Harvard's posture toward Palestinian activism, as Roth claimed that his fellowship was blocked due to his and HRW's criticisms of Israel. In his statement, Elmendorf said that this was not the case.
  • NGO Monitor, an Israeli organization that screens NGOs for "anti-Israel bias," initially celebrated the decision, saying that the dean "recognized Roth's central contributions to legitimizing antisemitism."
  • Ken Roth spent nearly 30 years as the executive director of HRW before announcing his retirement in April. Under his leadership, HRW grew its budget from $7M to nearly $100M and went from 60 employees to 550, monitoring more than 100 countries.
  • Roth called the initial decision "crazy." In response, a Kennedy School spokesman said, "We have internal procedures in place to consider fellowships...and we do not discuss our deliberations about individuals who may be under consideration."
  • Roth, who has been critical of Israeli military and political actions, is himself Jewish and the son of Jewish parents who fled Nazi Germany.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though this reversal is, of course, good news, ultimately it's a drop in the bucket regarding Palestinian advocacy on college campuses. Roth is highly regarded within the Human Rights community, and the fact that this decision was even made in the first place speaks volumes to the level of influence Israel and the US security apparatus have over established academic institutions. The school was able to accommodate a former senior CIA official who apologized for torture but not a critic of Israel.

Pro-establishment narrative

Ken Roth's antisemitism has no place in any academic institution, and even the founder of HRW has disavowed Roth for his obsession with delegitimizing the Jewish state. In a region full of murderous dictators, brutal war criminals, and religious extremists, Roth wanted to focus on the only flourishing democracy in the Middle East Israel. Anti-Israel activists like Roth should be disavowed and sidelined.

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Security Expert: Twitter Hack Leaked Data on 200M Users

Facts

  • According to Alon Gal, the co-founder of the Israeli cybersecurity-monitoring firm Hudson Rock, hackers have allegedly stolen the email address of more than 200M Twitter users and shared them with an online hacking forum. Twitter hasn't respond to the claim
  • Gal called the leak "one of the most significant" he had seen. Screenshots of the hacker forum — where the data allegedly appeared Wednesday — have circulated online, although the authenticity couldn't be independently verified.
  • Some reports claim the data was actually collected in 2021 via a bug, which Twitter fixed after a similar event involving 5.4M Twitter accounts in July 2022.
  • Gal said the breach would lead to hacking, targeted phishing, and doxxing. He first posted the report on social media on Dec. 24, and it's not clear if Twitter has taken any action.

Spin

Narrative A

This serious risk of a breach is a result of Elon Musk's mismanagement of Twitter. He undercut key cyber security defenses and introduced new vulnerabilities. Users are now at serious risk for Musk's reckless and whimsical actions.

Narrative B

Twitter may have cybersecurity issues, but it's unfair to blame Musk. Prior to his purchase of the social media giant, a whistleblower set forth in great detail nightmare and "Black Swan" cyber security issues. No CEO would have wanted to inherit this level of risk.

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Prince Harry Criticized Over Claims He Killed 25 Afghan Fighters

Facts

  • Prince Harry has come under criticism from senior UK military figures, and Taliban leaders, over claims that he killed 25 fighters during two tours of duty in Afghanistan.
  • The figure was included in his new autobiography "Spare," set to be released in the UK on Jan. 10. "My number is 25," the Duke of Sussex reportedly writes. "It's not a number that fills me with satisfaction," he said, continuing, "but neither does it embarrass me."
  • Following the release of the comments — which were widely publicized after Spare mistakenly went on sale to the general public in Spain on Thursday — a senior Taliban official called for Prince Harry to be brought before an "international court" for "proudly confessing [the] crime" of killing 25 people in Afghanistan. Khalid Zadran, the Taliban's police spokesman in Kabul, said, "Afghans will never forget the killing of their innocent countrymen."
  • Meanwhile, ex-army officer Col. Richard Kemp has described the Duke's comments, which included a description of those he killed as "chess pieces" taken off the board, as "ill-judged." Kemp — who commanded British forces in Afghanistan in 2003 — criticized the Prince's characterization of insurgents as "virtually unhuman," and reflected that his words might worsen his security issues by provoking revenge by Taliban sympathizers.
  • The accidental early release of the autobiography on Thursday also saw the publication of new details about the relationship breakdown between Prince Harry and his older brother, and heir to the throne, Prince William.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Good soldiers don't publicize how many people they've killed, primarily out of a sense of decency and respect for the lives they've taken. Many who fought in Afghanistan now acknowledge that, in Helmand Province where the Duke of Sussex served, most fighting British forces were local tribes people rather than members of al-Qaeda. This indiscretion, however, is one of many in Spare that exemplify Harry's failure to demonstrate the dignity and restraint that made his grandmother's reign successful.

Establishment-critical narrative

If any conclusion can be drawn from the controversy surrounding this autobiography, it is that rivalry and resentment, victory and shame, occurring between siblings crosses all barriers of class. There is something deeply unhealthy about hereditary power and, despite the immense privilege the Duke of Sussex and Prince of Wales originate from, the publicly catastrophic unraveling of their relationship may be at least in part down to this undemocratic and draconian inheritance of power at the center of their family.

Nerd narrative

There is an 11% chance that King Charles II will abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before Sept. 9, 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Mexican Army Captures Son of Drug Lord 'El Chapo'

Facts

  • Mexican Sec. of Defense Luis Cresencio Sandoval announced on Thursday that the Mexican army arrested Ovidio Guzmán, a top leader in the Sinaloa Cartel and the son of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, the now notorious cartel leader who is currently serving a life sentence in the US.
  • Sandoval reported that, after six months of interagency investigation and surveillance work, Mexican authorities conducted a raid in a small town northwest of Culiacan in the state of Sinaloa, capturing Guzmán while he was traveling in a convoy of armored SUVs.
  • In response to his capture, cartel gunmen swept across Culiacan, as well as other parts of Sinaloa, erecting roadblocks and entering the airport to prevent authorities from flying Guzmán out of the city.
  • This is the second time in recent years that authorities have arrested Guzmán, who, along with his brothers, is accused of leading the largest drug distribution and money laundering network in the Americas. After a previous arrest in 2019, authorities ultimately released him when cartel fighters seized control of much of Culiacan.
  • State governor Ruben Rocha said that in the immediate aftermath of Guzmán's arrest, seven members of the security forces were killed and 29 people were injured, including eight civilians. Rocha also reported 12 clashes between cartel gunmen and Mexican authorities, 25 incidents of looting, and 250 vehicles set ablaze as roadblocks.
  • The arrest comes only a week before US Pres. Joe Biden and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau are expected to visit Mexico for a summit. The Sinaloa cartel is one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico and is accused by Washington of flooding the US with fentanyl.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

A single raid may not stop the flow of fentanyl into the US, but this arrest is certainly a significant blow to the Sinaloa cartel and a major victory for the rule of law. Mexican authorities worked for six months to put the crime boss behind bars, which demonstrates that effectively pursuing the cartels is possible. Even in the face of cartel gunmen sweeping Sinaloa, the authorities still managed to extract Guzmán.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US media has an incredibly inaccurate and racialized perspective of the so-called "drug war" in Mexico. Drug trafficking and violence in Mexico have a lot more to do with how criminal networks work in conjunction with the Mexican state than what amounts to occasional military operations against said networks. Even as the US and Mexican governments' response has expanded and militarized over the years, drug smuggling and use in the US have only increased.

Cynical narrative

Though it is always good to see a criminal like Guzmán get put behind bars, the only reason Mexican authorities conducted this raid was to create good optics for Biden's visit next week. The Mexican government is capable of cracking down on crime, it just only chooses to do so when it's beneficial to its geopolitical interests. As the US is flooded with illicit narcotics from Mexico, the Mexican government is ultimately only interested in optics as opposed to concrete action.

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UK: Cancer Vaccine Trials Set For This Year

Facts

  • The pharmaceutical company BioNTech has inked a deal with the UK government to conduct trials for an mRNA-based cancer vaccine this year.
  • BioNTech, which developed a COVID mRNA vaccine in collaboration with Pfizer, announced plans to open new UK research centers and administer 10k doses of the treatment by 2030. The mRNA therapies introduce personalized pieces of genetic code to help train the immune system to fight cancerous cells, leaving healthy cells unharmed.
  • Unlike traditional vaccines, mRNA treatments utilize genetic instructions to train the body to produce parts of a virus, instead of using inactive viral cells. The COVID pandemic reignited interest in the technology, with scientists hoping that the method can be used to treat other illnesses.
  • UK health secretary Steve Barclay stated that "as early as September," cancer patients in the UK will have access to clinical trials providing "targeted, personalized and precision treatments using transformative new therapies to both treat the existing cancer and help stop it returning."
  • BioNTech co-founder Özlem Türeci praised the UK as a "great partner" for these trials, citing their fast approval processes for COVID vaccines and genomic-analysis capabilities. Cancer Research UK welcomed the news, but warned that a straining National Health Service may hinder swift advancement of these trials.
  • While mRNA cancer treatments are in the early stages of development, data from a study last year showed that mRNA vaccines were able to generate a custom immune response in eight out of sixteen pancreatic cancer patients after nine doses, receiving one dose per week.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

mRNA technologies are the future of healthcare, and the UK government is wise to make big investments. The COVID pandemic has shown that these treatments can be safe and effective, and there is hope that everything from the flu to HIV will eventually be able to be treated via mRNA vaccines. This news is no surprise to anybody who has kept their pulse on the health world, as we will finally see just how far mRNA technologies can go in treating diseases.

Establishment-critical narrative

Once again, the media is running away with science news at a breathless pace. While the trials were promising, the studies on mRNA cancer treatments do not indicate some kind of miracle cure. It is unlikely that mRNA vaccines will be first-line treatments for cancer anytime soon, as they mostly prevent the reoccurrence of cancer. The UK government is selling false hope to their people with their imprecise messaging.

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Biden Marks Second Jan. 6 Anniversary

Facts

  • To mark the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots, Pres. Joe Biden on Friday awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal, the second-highest civilian award in the US, to several individuals who either performed acts of heroism that day or aided to protect the results of the 2020 presidential election.
  • Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick received a posthumous award. He died of natural causes in the days after the riots, but according to a medical examiner, he suffered multiple strokes in the aftermath of that day.
  • Rusty Bowers, a Republican who served in the Arizona House, testified that he rejected pressure from then-Pres. Donald Trump to take the state’s elector votes away from then-Pres. elect Joe Biden. Bowers was publicly criticized by Trump and eventually lost in the Republican primary.
  • Law enforcement honorees included Capitol Police Sgt. Aquilino Gonell; Capitol officers Harry Dunn, Caroline Edwards, and Eugene Goodman; Metropolitan police officer Daniel Hodges; and retired Metropolitan officer Michael Fanone.
  • Michigan Sec. of State Jocelyn Benson, Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, and Al Schmidt, a city commissioner on the Philadelphia County Board of Elections, were also honored by Biden.
  • The commemoration event comes as the now-Republican-majority House - which must first elect a speaker - has vowed to launch its own investigation into the riots, with a particular focus on security failures allowing the mob to breach the Capitol.

Spin

Democratic narrative

These honorees showed exceptional courage – and in some cases put their lives on the line – to defend democracy from the Trump-inspired mob and those elsewhere who were trying to illegally change the election result. It’s important to recognize these people for their efforts as US democracy continues to be challenged by Trump and his acolytes.

Republican narrative

The second anniversary of the riots, and this award ceremony, are self-made opportunities for Democrats to stir up their hate of Trump and sell overblown tales of "insurrections" and "coups" to the public. Their desire to attack Trump, and more importantly his followers, is a thinly-veiled attempt to distract the electorate amid soaring inflation and diplomatic crises across the globe.

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