06 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

Interpol Arrests 'World's Most Wanted' Human Smuggler in Sudan

The Facts

  • Interpol announced on Thursday that an Eritrean national characterized as the "most wanted human trafficker," Kidane Zekarias Habtemariam, was arrested in Sudan on Jan. 1 in an operation led by the United Arab Emirates.

  • On Interpol's radar since 2019, Habtemariam was the subject of two "Red Notices" for crimes related to migrant smuggling and human trafficking. He is accused of leading a major criminal organization behind the kidnapping, extortion, and murder of East African migrants.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Arresting Habtemariam will surely disrupt a major people smuggling route into Europe and protect thousands of vulnerable people, as he was the mastermind behind his criminal organization's migrant transferring operations. In addition, it shows that the international community can hold dangerous people smugglers accountable for their crimes through collaboration.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though people smuggling gangs indeed put the lives of thousands of vulnerable migrants at risk and must be held accountable, the main focus of the international community ought to be on the core underlying issues that drive these patterns. Meanwhile, the EU should make it easier for these migrants to enter its territory and legally claim asylum.

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Day 317: Frontline Situation Unclear After Russia Declares Ceasefire

The Facts

  • As Russians and many Ukrainians begin to celebrate their Christmas Eve on Friday, the situation on the frontlines remains uncertain after Russian Pres. Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire that lasts 36 hours from midday Moscow time to midnight the following day.

  • Putin's declaration came after Russia's leader of its Orthodox church, Patriarch Kirill, urged participants of the conflict to declare a ceasefire — allowing followers of the Eastern Orthodox faith to celebrate and worship on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. However, Putin's announcement was widely dismissed by Ukrainian, European, and US politicians.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Putin's hastily announced ceasefire is part of an information war aimed at discrediting Ukrainians. Ukraine could not be reasonably expected to suddenly meet its terms and Putin wants to leverage this to make Ukrainians seem unwilling to cooperate.

Pro-Russia narrative

A hand of Christian mercy was offered to Ukrainians, but this was swiped away. This helps Russians to know who they're dealing with and ensures that future opportunities for deception don't creep in.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

House Speaker Votes: McCarthy Still Lacks Critical Mass

The Facts

  • On Friday, the US House of Representatives continued its historic stand-off, as Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) made progress towards securing house leadership, but still lacked a critical mass. As of Friday evening, McCarthy had lost all 13 rounds of voting with the House adjourning until 10:00 pm EST.

  • Despite failing to be elected speaker, McCarthy did make progress not seen in previous days. During the 12th round of voting, he flipped 14 Republicans who hadn't voted for him in previous rounds; in the 13th round, he flipped an additional vote. He expressed confidence in shortly clinching the role.


The Spin

Republican narrative

The remaining "Never Kevin" detractors seem to be campaigning on the House floor rather than fighting for substantive change. McCarthy has already promised to enact most of the concessions requested, but these so-called "anti-establishment" representatives are only pushing the talking points that their ill-advised consultants have fed them.

Conservative narrative

No matter what happens with this vote, Kevin McCarthy and his staunchest supporters — including Donald Trump — will have learned that even a year congressional veteran can't bully dissenters the way he could in the past. Even hardcore Trump supporters like Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert have ignored his endorsement because they understand that figures like McCarthy will never like them so long as they oppose the money-fueled elitism of the establishment GOP.

Cynical narrative

It's deeply ironic that amid Friday's voting turmoil and drama, only one Republican showed up to mark a Congressional memorial of the two-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riots of 2021. While the memorial was ongoing, much of the House of the GOP was reportedly on a Speaker conference call. This turbulence isn't a good look as America also reflects on a historic day.

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South Carolina Court Strikes Down Six-Week Abortion Ban

Photo: Sam Wolfe

The Facts

  • In a 3-2 ruling, South Carolina’s Supreme Court on Thursday declared the state’s law banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy unconstitutional under state law because it violates a woman’s right to privacy and doesn't provide a “reasonable period of time” for a woman to take steps to terminate her pregnancy.

  • The so-called “fetal heartbeat” law was challenged by two South Carolina physicians, a women’s clinic in the city of Greenville and Planned Parenthood.


The Spin

Left narrative

This is a monumental victory in the battle to protect abortion rights, especially in the South. Although other state courts will have different political makeups, and their constitutions will have different language, every state that recognizes a constitutional right to abortion will set an example for other states.

Right narrative

The court was wrong to lump abortion rights in with a right to privacy, and there’s nothing in the state constitution that justifies abortions. Several other states have adopted similar “heartbeat” laws to protect the lives of the unborn, proving their legality. This ruling was judicial overreach; the legislature should be able to limit abortion as it sees fit.

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Harvard Reverses Decision on Fellowship for Former Human Rights Watch Head

The Facts

  • The dean of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, Douglas Elmendorf, on Thursday reversed his decision to block Ken Roth, the former head of Human Rights Watch (HRW), from becoming a senior fellow at the institution.

  • The decision, which was made earlier this month, sparked intense controversy and criticism regarding Harvard's posture toward Palestinian activism, as Roth claimed that his fellowship was blocked due to his and HRW's criticisms of Israel. In his statement, Elmendorf said that this was not the case.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though this reversal is, of course, good news, ultimately it's a drop in the bucket regarding Palestinian advocacy on college campuses. Roth is highly regarded within the Human Rights community, and the fact that this decision was even made in the first place speaks volumes to the level of influence Israel and the US security apparatus have over established academic institutions. The school was able to accommodate a former senior CIA official who apologized for torture but not a critic of Israel.

Pro-establishment narrative

Ken Roth's antisemitism has no place in any academic institution, and even the founder of HRW has disavowed Roth for his obsession with delegitimizing the Jewish state. In a region full of murderous dictators, brutal war criminals, and religious extremists, Roth wanted to focus on the only flourishing democracy in the Middle East Israel. Anti-Israel activists like Roth should be disavowed and sidelined.

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Security Expert: Twitter Hack Leaked Data on 200M Users

Photo: verge

The Facts

  • According to Alon Gal, the co-founder of the Israeli cybersecurity-monitoring firm Hudson Rock, hackers have allegedly stolen the email address of more than 200M Twitter users and shared them with an online hacking forum. Twitter hasn't respond to the claim

  • Gal called the leak "one of the most significant" he had seen. Screenshots of the hacker forum — where the data allegedly appeared Wednesday — have circulated online, although the authenticity couldn't be independently verified.


The Spin

Narrative A

This serious risk of a breach is a result of Elon Musk's mismanagement of Twitter. He undercut key cyber security defenses and introduced new vulnerabilities. Users are now at serious risk for Musk's reckless and whimsical actions.

Narrative B

Twitter may have cybersecurity issues, but it's unfair to blame Musk. Prior to his purchase of the social media giant, a whistleblower set forth in great detail nightmare and "Black Swan" cyber security issues. No CEO would have wanted to inherit this level of risk.

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Prince Harry Criticized Over Claims He Killed 25 Afghan Fighters

The Facts

  • Prince Harry has come under criticism from senior UK military figures, and Taliban leaders, over claims that he killed 25 fighters during two tours of duty in Afghanistan.

  • The figure was included in his new autobiography "Spare," set to be released in the UK on Jan. 10. "My number is 25," the Duke of Sussex reportedly writes. "It's not a number that fills me with satisfaction," he said, continuing, "but neither does it embarrass me."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Good soldiers don't publicize how many people they've killed, primarily out of a sense of decency and respect for the lives they've taken. Many who fought in Afghanistan now acknowledge that, in Helmand Province where the Duke of Sussex served, most fighting British forces were local tribes people rather than members of al-Qaeda. This indiscretion, however, is one of many in Spare that exemplify Harry's failure to demonstrate the dignity and restraint that made his grandmother's reign successful.

Establishment-critical narrative

If any conclusion can be drawn from the controversy surrounding this autobiography, it is that rivalry and resentment, victory and shame, occurring between siblings crosses all barriers of class. There is something deeply unhealthy about hereditary power and, despite the immense privilege the Duke of Sussex and Prince of Wales originate from, the publicly catastrophic unraveling of their relationship may be at least in part down to this undemocratic and draconian inheritance of power at the center of their family.

Nerd narrative

There is an 11% chance that King Charles II will abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before Sept. 9, 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Mexican Army Captures Son of Drug Lord 'El Chapo'

The Facts

  • Mexican Sec. of Defense Luis Cresencio Sandoval announced on Thursday that the Mexican army arrested Ovidio Guzmán, a top leader in the Sinaloa Cartel and the son of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, the now notorious cartel leader who is currently serving a life sentence in the US.

  • Sandoval reported that, after six months of interagency investigation and surveillance work, Mexican authorities conducted a raid in a small town northwest of Culiacan in the state of Sinaloa, capturing Guzmán while he was traveling in a convoy of armored SUVs.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

A single raid may not stop the flow of fentanyl into the US, but this arrest is certainly a significant blow to the Sinaloa cartel and a major victory for the rule of law. Mexican authorities worked for six months to put the crime boss behind bars, which demonstrates that effectively pursuing the cartels is possible. Even in the face of cartel gunmen sweeping Sinaloa, the authorities still managed to extract Guzmán.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US media has an incredibly inaccurate and racialized perspective of the so-called "drug war" in Mexico. Drug trafficking and violence in Mexico have a lot more to do with how criminal networks work in conjunction with the Mexican state than what amounts to occasional military operations against said networks. Even as the US and Mexican governments' response has expanded and militarized over the years, drug smuggling and use in the US have only increased.

Cynical narrative

Though it is always good to see a criminal like Guzmán get put behind bars, the only reason Mexican authorities conducted this raid was to create good optics for Biden's visit next week. The Mexican government is capable of cracking down on crime, it just only chooses to do so when it's beneficial to its geopolitical interests. As the US is flooded with illicit narcotics from Mexico, the Mexican government is ultimately only interested in optics as opposed to concrete action.

See sources

UK: Cancer Vaccine Trials Set For This Year

The Facts

  • The pharmaceutical company BioNTech has inked a deal with the UK government to conduct trials for an mRNA-based cancer vaccine this year.

  • BioNTech, which developed a COVID mRNA vaccine in collaboration with Pfizer, announced plans to open new UK research centers and administer 10k doses of the treatment by 2030. The mRNA therapies introduce personalized pieces of genetic code to help train the immune system to fight cancerous cells, leaving healthy cells unharmed.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

mRNA technologies are the future of healthcare, and the UK government is wise to make big investments. The COVID pandemic has shown that these treatments can be safe and effective, and there is hope that everything from the flu to HIV will eventually be able to be treated via mRNA vaccines. This news is no surprise to anybody who has kept their pulse on the health world, as we will finally see just how far mRNA technologies can go in treating diseases.

Establishment-critical narrative

Once again, the media is running away with science news at a breathless pace. While the trials were promising, the studies on mRNA cancer treatments do not indicate some kind of miracle cure. It is unlikely that mRNA vaccines will be first-line treatments for cancer anytime soon, as they mostly prevent the reoccurrence of cancer. The UK government is selling false hope to their people with their imprecise messaging.

See sources

Biden Marks Second Jan. 6 Anniversary

Photo: wsj

The Facts

  • To mark the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots, Pres. Joe Biden on Friday awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal, the second-highest civilian award in the US, to several individuals who either performed acts of heroism that day or aided to protect the results of the 2020 presidential election.

  • Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick received a posthumous award. He died of natural causes in the days after the riots, but according to a medical examiner, he suffered multiple strokes in the aftermath of that day.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

These honorees showed exceptional courage – and in some cases put their lives on the line – to defend democracy from the Trump-inspired mob and those elsewhere who were trying to illegally change the election result. It’s important to recognize these people for their efforts as US democracy continues to be challenged by Trump and his acolytes.

Republican narrative

The second anniversary of the riots, and this award ceremony, are self-made opportunities for Democrats to stir up their hate of Trump and sell overblown tales of "insurrections" and "coups" to the public. Their desire to attack Trump, and more importantly his followers, is a thinly-veiled attempt to distract the electorate amid soaring inflation and diplomatic crises across the globe.

See sources

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