Study Shows Recent Stark Decrease in "Disruptive" Science
According to a Nature study released this week, despite the ever-increasing number of science and technology papers published each year, the “disruptiveness” of the research is declining.
Russell Funk, a sociologist at the University of Minnesota, co-authored the study. The study considers “disruptive” science to be work that takes its field in a new direction instead of simply incrementally building on previous research.
Using citation data from 45M manuscripts and 3.9M patents, the study calculated the “CD index” as a measure of disruptiveness. If a paper is cited often while prior papers in the field decline in reference, it's considered to be more disruptive.
Establishment-critical narrative
The scientific publishing business has become the enemy of progress. With the focus on producing studies that will bring the biggest hype, however transitory, and thus reap the biggest profits — coupled with the fact that academic careers depend almost entirely on the number of papers a researcher has authored, and the prestige of the journals in which they're published — there is little incentive to think outside the box or pursue disruptive science.
Pro-establishment narrative
Everyone wants to see exciting breakthroughs in science, and sometimes people overreact to a lack of innovation when a new study is released. However, incremental science is not a bad thing at all; in fact, it has led to extremely valuable work and lays a foundation for future research to continue exploring. Science is a team sport, and advancing the objectives benefit the team in the long run.
Cynical narrative
Science is in decline, and the effects are chilling and palpable. Unfortunately, science is no longer defined by the pursuit of knowledge and innovation; it has been captured by political ideologues who would rather suppress research into “forbidden” topics rather than embrace daring adventures. As long as “science” is more concerned with racial quotas than it is with actual discovery, we will continue to see its sad decline.
Brazil: Intervention Decreed as Protesters Breach Govt. Buildings
On Sunday, Brazilian authorities said supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro breached the country's congress, supreme court, and presidential palace — many calling for military intervention to remove Brazil's Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Video footage shows thousands of protesters destroying barricades, attacking police vehicles, damaging windows and furniture, and destroying artworks inside the government buildings in the capital Brasília.
According to local media, at least 1.2k demonstrators were arrested on Monday — in addition to 300 on Sunday — and around 40 buses reportedly used to transport Bolsonaro supporters to the capital have been seized. The violent protests came days after Lula was sworn in as Brazil's president on Jan. 1.
Left narrative
Echoes of the Jan. 6 Capitol Riot are undeniable in this mob violence caused by supporters of Brazil's Trump-like former Pres. Bolsonaro. Far-right Brazilians have followed the same playbook, baselessly claiming election fraud before threatening democratic institutions. Now, they must face the same fate as those who inspired them and be held to account.
Right narrative
Sunday's protests began peacefully, but this outcome shouldn't be surprising as Brazilian society has long been under immense pressure. Fueled by discontent over the Supreme Court's intervention in the elections to undemocratically favor Lula, as well as unanswered questions about the electoral process swept under the rug, protesters' expression of discontent ended in violence as a result of the injustice governing their society.
China Conducts Large-Scale 'Combat' Drills Near Taiwan
China's military said on Sunday that it has conducted large-scale "joint combat readiness patrols and actual combat drills" around Taiwan, marking the second round of drills in less than a month.
A statement from the PRC's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Command said the combat drills were to test troops' ability to counter provocative activities by "external forces" and separatist elements seeking Taiwan's independence.
According to Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, the PLA's recent exercises included 57 combat aircraft, 28 of which entered Taiwan's self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone — part of which extends over mainland China —with several also crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line.
Pro-establishment narrative
China is preparing for war against Taiwan as part of its policy of "reunification" with the semi-autonomous island, and the only way to prevent such an event is to bolster Washington's deterrence and power projection in the region through additional national security funding. This would also convince US regional allies to invest more in their security. Dictatorships in this rising tide of autocracy understand only the language of power — Russia's Ukraine invasion is proof that Washington must act now before it's too late.
Establishment-critical narrative
Due to the overbearing US actions and Washington's apparent departure away from the One China policy, tensions between China and the US are rising. As with Ukraine, Washington and its Western allies are using Taiwan for geopolitical goals instead of focusing on the fact that the Taiwanese voted in local elections against such an aggressive stance against China. Beijing is pursuing the goal of peaceful reunification, but since the hegemonic US misinterprets this as a "sign of weakness," the risk of military escalation is increasing.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that the US and China will be at war by 2035, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.
Israel Orders Ban on Public Palestinian Flag-Flying
Israel's security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on Sunday ordered police to remove Palestinian flags from public places, deeming their display an act of "terrorism" in the wake of mass anti-government protests in Tel Aviv that broke out the previous day.
The announcement came only a few hours after Ben-Gvir summoned Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai to reprimand him regarding public festivities in the Arab town of 'Ara. The festivities celebrated the return of freed prisoner Karim Younis, who served 40 years in jail on terror charges.
Additionally, the minister instructed Shabtai to open a probe in order to scrutinize why his instruction to prevent celebrations of the prisoner's release in 'Ara was only partially carried out by officers, demanding results of the investigation be presented to him.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel's most far-right government ever hasn't wasted any time in cracking down on Palestinians. This flag ban is simply symbolic of all the efforts taken to retaliate against the UN vote to refer the decades-long occupation of the West Bank to the International Court of Justice. Tel Aviv's goal is clear to harm the Palestinian cause as much as possible and bring about its downfall.
Pro-Israel narrative
While waving the Palestine Liberation Organization flag is not a crime under Israeli law, it's self-evident that its display expresses solidarity and sympathy to terror groups when it's flown in the homecoming ceremony of a convicted murderer who spent 40 years in prison. This ban is a necessary measure to curb the acceleration of terrorism and prevent further public disturbances.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia: "One-in-100-Year" Floods Force Evacuations
A "one-in-100-year" flood has struck the Australian outback forcing military-supported evacuations of area residents. The western region of Kimberley received a torrent of rain from former tropical cyclone Ellie — dropping a year's worth of rain in just a few days.
During a visit to the area, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that he witnessed wide-scale infrastructure damage and residents of the area who had been decimated.
Albanese also said that supporting the operation were eight Australian Defence Force aircraft, three fixed-wing aircraft, and five helicopters.
Establishment-critical narrative
In Australia, watching community after community flood and attempting to recover is a hard pill to swallow. The country lost a full decade from which they could have been preparing for the compounding catastrophes. Instead, the government finds itself woefully unprepared and with no idea where to begin preparing while in a perpetual state of disaster recovery. The old cliche of "when it rains, it pours" has been replaced with "when it rains, it floods" — not to mention searing wildfires that grip headlines worldwide.
Pro-establishment narrative
Globally Australia had been known for lagging behind other prominent nations with their inaction on climate change. Well, this is no more. The Australian government rallied to pass the Climate Change Bill of 2022, which monitors the country's progress toward national and international goals and mandates that the minister for climate change report progress to Parliament annually. Australia's new seriousness marks the beginning of a transition the whole world must take on for humanity's sustainability.
Cynical narrative
One can praise or blame the Australian government, but there is mounting evidence that these events are simply becoming "less natural" and tough for any administration to deal with. The land "down under" is on the climate front lines.
Day 320: Russia Rejects Peace Deal Speculation as 'Hoax'
On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskova described as a "hoax" recent reports in Ukraine that Russia was trying to force Kyiv to sign a Korea-style peace deal to end the 10-month-long conflict.
Oleksiy Danilov from Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council reportedly suggested that the Kremlin's Dmitry Kozak is meeting with European politicians. The alleged intent is to sign a peace agreement similar to the previous Minsk accords.
Meanwhile, Ukraine denied Russian claims that a missile attack in the eastern city of Kramatorsk had killed more than 600 Ukrainian forces on Sunday. Moscow had termed the operation a "retaliatory strike" in response to the deaths of 89 Russian troops killed in the recent Ukrainian shelling of Makiivka.
Anti-Russia narrative
It would be a mistake to say Putin’s days as an aggressor are over. For the Russian president, defeat is not an option. He will never cede the four eastern provinces he has declared part of Russia to Ukraine. Moreover, if the Kremlin succeeds in toppling Ukraine, Russia will likely eye the Baltic countries of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia as well as Finland, Poland, and Romania. The US and its allies must arm Ukraine and help Zelenskyy push back harder — before it's too late.
Pro-Russia narrative
The West has used the situation in Ukraine to create tension with Russia for years. Pres. Putin will not allow the West to use Ukraine as a weapon to weaken and divide Russia. Instead, he will do the right thing to protect its national interests and the interests of its citizens. The world will soon realize Russia is the only real guarantor of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance of a coup or regime change in Russia during 2022 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
McCarthy Wins US House Speakership
Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives on Saturday — finally reaching the winning vote threshold after a record 15 rounds of voting, the longest vote since 1860.
Voting began Jan. 3, but many members of the Republican Freedom Caucus refused to vote for McCarthy without a series of concessions. On Friday there was a breakthrough as 14 votes flipped in his favor on the 12th ballot.
McCarthy secured the 216 votes, which traditionally would be two short of a majority needed, on the 15th ballot. With six remaining GOP dissenters voting "present" rather than for other candidates, as they did in previous rounds, the required majority was reduced.
Democratic narrative
Although McCarthy can celebrate finally being Speaker, the role has been gutted of most of its power, which he’s handed off to ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus members. Having repeatedly miscalculated the size of his own support, McCarthy now finds himself at the feet of radical Republicans.
Republican narrative
Passionate debate is the centerpiece of democracy, and that’s what Republicans were doing over the days it took to get McCarthy elected Speaker. Now that he has the gavel, McCarthy will continue to prove he’s a great unifier of his party, and Republicans will deliver on their promises, including plans to reduce spending, tackle illegal immigration and hold Democrats to account.
Pro-Trump narrative
As the Speaker vote dragged on, the mainstream media prematurely reported on former Pres. Donald Trump’s waning influence. Little did they know that Trump would reward McCarthy’s loyalty by making sure the new Speaker’s victory would be assured by convincing the last remaining holdouts to end their obstruction.
Cynical narrative
At the end of the day, Congress’ dysfunction will continue because of its members’ devotion to party over country. There was no better example of this than Democrats voting unanimously for a Speaker candidate who had no chance of winning. With the margins between the parties razor thin, only bipartisan cooperation will get anything passed, but it doesn’t look like the parties will be doing anything to help each other.
Nerd narrative
There is a 71% chance that Republicans will keep control of the House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Makes First Visit to Southern Border
For the first time since taking office, US Pres. Biden on Sunday visited the US-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas. The US has seen 2.2M arrests for illegal border crossings in the last fiscal year.
Ahead of his trip, border agents removed hundreds of migrants, predominantly Venezuelan, who had been camping outside a Greyhound Bus station in downtown El Paso. This comes as the city saw 2.5K daily arrivals in the last week of December, though there's typically a decline in January.
Biden spent a few hours at the border, mainly focusing on enforcement issues. He reportedly did not meet with any migrants at the processing center, although Biden officials suggested that this may have just been coincidental.
Democratic narrative
Biden arrived at the border with a plan that should satisfy criticism from his left and right. By enhancing the Title 42 process and requiring striking a deportation deal with Mexico, Republicans should be happy that migrants must wait in Mexico until their asylum hearings. Likewise, progressives should be excited about the program to allow 30K new migrants per month to obtain visas.
Republican narrative
Those who are hopeful that this visit is the start of Biden doing something to tackle the border crisis should not be fooled. If history is our guide, these 30K "temporary" visas per month are only temporary if Biden enforces them, which is unlikely given that his progressive base wants unlimited amnesty for all so-called "asylum-seekers". This was undoubtedly a calculated political stunt that does nothing but provide good headlines for the president as he enters his third year in office.
Seattle Schools Suing Tech Giants Over Students' Mental Health
The Seattle city school district has filed a lawsuit against Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Snap Inc., and ByteDance Ltd., the owner of TikTok, over claims that schools can't fulfill their educational requirements due to students' anxiety, depression and other related mental health difficulties allegedly resulting from social media usage.
The 91-page suit was filed on Friday with the US District Court and claims that Big Tech's contribution towards worsening mental health and behavioral disorders has forced schools to take additional measures, such as hiring additional mental health professionals, preparing lesson plans to educate students on the impact of social media, and providing additional training to teachers.
According to the complaint, the social media companies have "successfully exploited the vulnerable brains of youth," and "the content Defendants curate and direct to youth is too often harmful and exploitive."
Establishment-critical narrative
Vulnerable young people are facing mounting mental health pressures and, while some factors provoking this decline — such as issues within the education system and the fallout from the COVID pandemic — are difficult to change, others are very easy to, like algorithms or social media codes. By making the relevant companies more accountable, settings, content filters, and revised guidance could help young people have healthier relationships with social media platforms.
Pro-establishment narrative
Third-party users are largely responsible for their content and conduct online, and numerous regulatory processes are carried out to ensure content is not harmful. According to Meta's global head of safety, Antigone Davis, over 30 tools have been developed to support teens and families, encourage time limits, and identify more than 99% of harmful content even before it's reported by users. Evidently, social media platforms are always evolving to keep young people safe.
Cynical narrative
A crisis affecting mental health isn't the same as a crisis of mental health, and the "reification" of society — where the effects of political arrangements of power and resource start appearing like objective facts about the world — have had the consequence of swapping out political problems for scientific or technical ones. Characterizing issues such as the youth mental health crisis as a problem of "social media addiction" rather than focusing on going after unregulated tech oligopolies skips over the core fact — societal problems like these are inherently political.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nigeria: Armed Group Abducts 32 From Train Station
Nigeria's Edo state governor's office stated on Sunday that a group of men armed with AK-47s had attacked the Tom Ikimi train station, some 111 km (69 mi) northeast of the state capital Benin City. The attackers reportedly abducted 32 people.
Armed herdsmen allegedly attacked the station as passengers waited for a train to Warri, an oil hub in nearby Delta state. Police added that the attackers shot multiple people while at the station and one of those kidnapped managed to escape.
On Monday afternoon, local authorities claimed that security forces have rescued six hostages as search operations have been carried out near the station in search for the militants.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Nigerian government is doing a solid job of pursuing these terrorists. Considering that six people have already been freed in such a short time, it seems reasonable to assume that local authorities are achieving success in search and rescue operations.
Establishment-critical narrative
As elections approach, security has become a hot topic in Nigeria as the government has failed to provide public safety. This attack could have been prevented if railway stations had small security features like closed-circuit television cameras — minor steps that would have made a great difference.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 14 at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
7K Nurses Strike in New York City
On Monday, more than 7K nurses at two New York City hospitals went on strike after talks broke down between the union and hospital leaders overnight. Unions are advocating for higher pay and better working conditions. The action comes amid a nationwide trend toward healthcare labor strikes.
Nurses at Mount Sinai Hospital in Manhattan and three Montefiore Medical Center locations in Brooklyn began the strike citing long hours and unsafe conditions without fair pay. The hospitals offered a 19% raise, but it was not enough.
The hospitals had reached tentative agreements with the nurses' union late Sunday evening, but the deals fell through. Hundreds of nurses picketed outside the hospital singing Twisted Sister’s hit song, “We’re Not Gonna Take It.”
Narrative A
Although it is not what anyone wants, nurses in New York City have no choice but to go on strike. Working in healthcare has always been an arduous career, but the pandemic has sent the industry into overdrive — burning out thousands of nurses. Hospitals are understaffed and nurses are overworked while being on the front lines.
Narrative B
Unions continue to lead industries down paths of destruction, and now people’s health is being put in danger due to union demands causing thousands of nurses to go on strike. New York has some of the highest union membership rates in the country which makes the dispute unsurprising, yet still disruptive for New Yorkers.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that less than 12% of Americans will be represented by a labor union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.