10 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

UN Report: Ozone Layer to Completely Heal By 2066

Facts

  • According to a UN report released Monday, the giant hole in Earth's ozone layer over Antarctica could fully heal by 2066. The news comes after the last assessment of recovery progress — made four years ago — found only slight and preliminary signs of healing.
  • Though healing is slow, the report shows the protective layer of the upper atmosphere — which has a global average thickness of 18 miles — could be back to the pre-thinning levels seen in 1980 in about 43 years. The publication further suggests that the ozone hole above the Arctic may be fully healed by 2045.
  • Developed countries agreed to reduce the production of primary ozone-depleting substances in 1987, with the signing of the Montreal Protocol — substances including hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were phased out of use in subsequent years due to concern over the ozone layer. More recently, the 2016 Kigali Amendment banned HFCs — potent ozone-depleting greenhouse gases known to damage Earth's climate.
  • The report claims that, since the Montreal Protocol, levels of chief ozone-eating chemicals chlorine and bromine have declined by 11.5% from their peak in 1993 and 14.5% since their peak in 1999.
  • United Nations Environment Program Director Inger Andersen has pointed out the positive impacts this progress has on human health, estimating that cooperative action helping heal the ozone layer protects roughly 2M people every year from developing skin cancer.
  • Despite this progress, however, scientists have warned that solar geoengineering designed to combat global warming, as well as efforts to artificially cool the planet through stratospheric aerosol injection, risk thinning the ozone layer by as much as 20% over Antarctica if enacted.

Spin

Narrative A

Evidence of the efficacy of the world’s coordinated response is having to tackle the ozone crisis is inspiring, and scientists should celebrate this continued trend of ecological progress. Furthermore — as the shrinking ozone hole illustrates — nations can solve climate change issues if they come together. The world is capable of uniting to reduce fossil fuel usage and tackling pollution if it uses the successful Montreal Protocol model employed to minimize ozone-depleting substances.

Narrative B

These results are certainly testament to the success of the Montreal Protocol, but the broader future of Earth's climate is not so certain. CFCs were only produced by a handful of companies, so it was relatively easy to reduce their production. Fossil fuels on the other hand — which pose the much greater issue — are more widespread and have greater longevity in our atmosphere. The reality of the much more significant environmental challenge facing scientists, politicians, and the population at large when it comes to climate change is sobering.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that global CO2 emissions will peak by Sept. 22, 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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UN Security Council Votes to Extend Cross-Border Aid to Northwest Syria

Facts

  • The UN Security Council has unanimously voted to maintain a cross-border mechanism that allows humanitarian aid to be delivered from Turkey to the rebel-held northwestern Syrian region of Idlib, which UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called an "indispensable lifeline" for 4.1M people.
  • The resolution extends critical aid deliveries for another six months. Since Syria’s government has not agreed to the humanitarian operation, authorization from the UN’s highest decision body was required to continue the shipments to opposition-controlled areas, which began in 2014.
  • Authorization for the operation was set to expire after a previous six-month extension was approved last July. Ireland and Norway drafted the current agreement before the end of the nations' two-year terms on the council on Dec. 31.
  • Russia’s vote was highly anticipated as it is an ally of Syria and has previously abstained or vetoed resolutions on cross-border aid deliveries. In a surprise move, Moscow supported the scheme's continuation.
  • Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said supporting the resolution was "difficult" as northwest Syria was “inundated with terrorists.” He reaffirmed, however, that Russia remains committed to its “principled position” that cross-border aid delivery should be temporary and should eventually be replaced by Syrian government-controlled deliveries.
  • On Sunday, a convoy of 18 trucks delivered important humanitarian supplies through government-held front lines to Idlib, Syria's last rebel stronghold. Turkey substantially backed Syrian rebels in the war's first years.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While a crisis has been temporarily averted in Syria, Western countries should have pushed to extend humanitarian aid to the country for at least a year to avoid allowing nations like Russia to weaponize relief efforts. Putin and Assad are trying to exercise diplomatic legitimacy for their oppressive regimes, and they should not be allowed to interfere with life-or-death aid.

Establishment-critical narrative

Syria’s government should be sovereign and the primary provider of aid to the Syrian people. Western countries care very little about the needs of ordinary citizens and use aid to exercise influence over other countries’ governments. This is evident in the fact that the majority of aid is going to Idlib, while only 35% goes to the areas where most Syrians live.

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Pakistan: Donors Pledge $9B for Flood Relief

Facts

  • On Monday, private donors and financial institutions pledged more than $9B to help Pakistan recover from last year's devastating floods.
  • Major donors reportedly included the Islamic Development Bank ($4.2B), World Bank ($2B), the Asian Development Bank ($1.5B), and Saudi Arabia ($1B).
  • The international assistance is expected to cover over half of the $16.3B Pakistan requested over the next three years to recover from the disaster and support the country's ability to withstand future climate shocks.
  • Last fall, melting glaciers and record monsoon rains triggered a catastrophic flood that left one-third of the country underwater. The disaster displaced over 33M people, destroyed more than 2M houses, killed around 1.7K people, and caused economic damages to the tune of $40B.
  • The aid comes after the United Nations COP27 climate summit in Egypt in Nov. 2022 agreed to set up a fund — called "loss and damage" — to help developing countries cope with the extreme weather events caused by global warming.
  • In August 2022, Pakistan also secured a $1.1B loan from the IMF to bring its economy — wracked by soaring inflation and political upheaval — back on track.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Although Pakistan is responsible for less than 1% of global greenhouse emissions, it is deeply impacted by climate-induced disasters. Last year's floods were a focus at COP27, where Pakistan led developing nations in the push to set up the "loss and damages" fund for climate reparations. The Geneva Conference was a test case of how willing developed countries are to assist developing countries. The West, fortunately, passed the test with flying colors.

Establishment-critical narrative

Being reliant on ad hoc aid from the international community and its institutions is not enough for Pakistan. Floods affect about 715K residents annually, and by 2030, the number is projected to reach 2.7M. The total financial loss of these floods projects to almost 1% of Islamabad's Gross Domestic Product annually. Pakistan must take its climate issues into its own hands — working on early warning systems and water policies — but it deserves more than aid; it deserves full climate reparations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century will be at least 8.84% of world GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Myanmar Jails 112 Rohingya

Facts

  • Myanmar's state media reported on Tuesday that a court in the southern city of Bogale sentenced 112 Rohingya to jail, including a dozen children, for traveling "without any official documents."
  • While the adults received five-year prison sentences, five children under 13 were sentenced to two years in jail, and seven children above 13 were given a three-year prison term.
  • The children were reportedly transferred to a "youth training school" near commercial hub Yangon on Jan. 8, two days after sentences were delivered, but no further details were given.
  • This comes after the group, comprised of people that reportedly left refugee camps in Bangladesh and Myanmar's Rakhine State, was arrested on Dec. 20 as they were reportedly waiting near an island off Bogale for other boats to take them to shore, from where they would have set sail for Malaysia.
  • The risky journey from refugee camps in Bangladesh and Myanmar to reach Muslim-majority Indonesia and Malaysia is believed to have been taken last year by more than 2k Rohingya, who are denied citizenship in Myanmar and often require permission to travel.
  • Over 700k Rohingya reportedly fled Myanmar to Bangladesh following the 2017 military crackdown and allegedly face dire conditions in refugee camps. Those still in Myanmar are in the middle of fighting between the military junta and the Arakan Army, a militant group based in the Rakhine state.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This is the latest example of the endless injustice and brutality to which the Rohingya have been subjected by Myanmar's government in recent years, which includes human rights abuses, unfair imprisonment, and inhumane detention camps.

Establishment-critical narrative

This action was fully lawful and taken in accordance with Myanmar's legally binding regulations. As the 112 undocumented Bengalis entered the country illegally via motorboat, they were, in turn, duly arrested.

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Classified Files from Biden's VP Term Found at Private Office

Facts

  • The White House confirmed Monday that classified documents from when Biden was vice president were discovered by his attorneys in an office at his Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement think tank in Washington.
  • The Penn Biden Center, an affiliate of the University of Pennsylvania, was founded in 2018 during Biden's time as an honorary professor from 2017 to 2019, for which he was compensated $1M by the school.
  • The attorneys uncovered the documents while preparing to vacate the office on Nov. 2. White House special counsel Richard Saubel said the files are now "appropriately in the possession of the [National] Archives," as required under the Presidential Records Act.
  • The classified materials included some top-secret files designated "sensitive compartmented information," which is used for highly-sensitive information obtained from intelligence sources. John Lausch Jr., a US Attorney from Chicago, is now investigating the matter.
  • This comes as the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) is investigating former Pres. Trump's unauthorized retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. News of the discovery of Biden's documents sparked criticism by the GOP.
  • This also comes after Biden in September called Trump "totally irresponsible" for bringing classified material to his private residence. However, Biden's attorneys suggested that, in contrast, they turned over the materials and notified authorities as soon as they were discovered.

Spin

Democratic narrative

There’s a big difference between the Trump and Biden cases. Trump violated the law by possessing classified papers and attempting to cover up his actions. The former president is facing a serious investigation because he knowingly held sensitive information and actively worked to keep it from the archives. Biden did neither of those things, thus GOP claims of Biden's hypocrisy are unfounded.

Republican narrative

The only important difference between the two cases is that Biden was vice president when he took the documents to his private office, and vice presidents don't have the same declassification powers as presidents. It will be interesting to see whether the DOJ sends teams to raid Biden's residences as they did with Trump, or if there continues to be a double standard.

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Day 321: Arming Ukraine with Modern Battle Tanks Not Ruled Out, Says NATO Chief

Facts

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has reportedly said that supplying Western tanks to Ukraine, such as the German Leopard or American Abrams, has not been ruled out as a course of action. Stoltenberg also stated that an "increase of arms shipments is the road to peace for the Ukrainians."
  • Stoltenberg's remarks coincided with the formal signing of a joint declaration by NATO and the EU, committing them to using their partnership to counter Russia's war on Ukraine and to boost security in the broader Euro-Atlantic region.
  • Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly made "tactical advances" near Bakhmut and is close to capturing Soledar – a small but strategically significant salt mining town in eastern Ukraine – the UK's defense ministry claimed on Tuesday.
  • In his nightly video address on Monday, Ukraine's Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy conceded that Soledar was completely destroyed, noting that the town is, "covered with the corpses of the occupiers and scars from the strikes."
  • Elsewhere, Russia's defense ministry admitted a Russian warship armed with hypersonic cruise weapons conducted an air defense exercise in the Norwegian Sea, "to repel the means of an air attack of a simulated enemy."
  • Meanwhile, Russia's defense chief Sergey Shoigu vowed to continue to develop the country's nuclear triad and maintain its combat readiness in 2023 to "guarantee Russia's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

As the war shifts to the strategically important Donbas region of Donetsk, the US and its allies need to continue to do everything in their power to arm Ukraine with all the weapons they need. Doing so is the only way to push Putin's forces back as was done in Kyiv.

Pro-Russia narrative

As stated by Putin, the whole purpose of the war was never to invade Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic killing by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv.

Establishment-critical narrative

More weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.

Nerd narrative

There is an 81% chance that Ukraine will receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community

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US Navy Seizes Yemen-Bound Assault Rifles

Facts

  • The US announced on Tuesday the seizure of over 2.1k assault rifles on a ship in the Gulf of Oman, believed to have come from Iran and bound for Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
  • The Bahrain-based US Navy Fifth Fleet discovered the cargo Friday on a small wooden boat crewed by Yemeni nationals off the coast of Oman. The Yemeni crew will reportedly be repatriated back to a government-controlled part of Yemen.
  • The weapons appear to be Chinese-made T-56 rifles and Russian-made Molot AKS20Us, according to experts who examined photos released by the Navy. Similar weapons suspected to be from Iran and headed to Yemen have previously been seized.
  • Last month, the US Navy claimed to have captured one million rounds of ammunition, rocket fuses, and propellant on a fishing vessel traveling to Yemen from Iran. In November, the Navy also said it found 70 tonnes of missile fuel allegedly being smuggled from Iran to Yemen.
  • A UN arms embargo prohibited weapons transfers to the Houthis in 2014 when Yemen’s civil war erupted.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The ongoing illegal flow of weapons to Yemen is causing significant suffering for innocent civilians. International negotiators are working hard to find a political solution to the war. The most recent seizure of Iranian weapons is just one more example demonstrating that Iran is continuing to arm the Houthis and disregard peace-making processes.

Establishment-critical narrative

Washington's role in the influx of weapons in the conflict— and by extension, its role in the country's crisis — can't be overlooked. As it hypocritically denounces Iran's suspected supply of weapons, the US itself is heavily arming Saudi Arabia in the hopes of cozying up with the oil-rich nation, and innocent civilians are paying the price.

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US Rep. Santos Rejects GOP Calls to Resign

Facts

  • On Wednesday, Rep. George Santos (R-NY) rejected calls from Nassau County Republican leaders to resign in the face of revelations he fabricated details of his resume, several investigations on potential campaign finance law violations, and other alleged controversies.
  • On Monday, the Campaign Legal Center (CLC), a campaign watchdog group, filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) accusing him of illegally using campaign funds to pay personal expenses and concealing the source of approximately $700K.
  • The CLC questions how Santos was able to lend his campaign $705K despite only being worth $55K per his 2020 financial disclosure reports.
  • In addition to the CLC’s complaint, Santos is being investigated by federal prosecutors in New York for potential campaign finance violations. Brazilian law enforcement is also reinstating fraud charges against Santos related to a stolen checkbook in 2008.
  • In addition, one of Santos’ campaign staffers has been accused of impersonating GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy’s chief of staff in order to solicit donations from wealthy GOP donors. Santos’ lawyers said the staffer, Sam Miele, was “let go about a year ago.”
  • On Tuesday, NY Democratic Representatives Ritchie Torres and Daniel Goldman hand delivered a House Ethics Committee complaint to Santos’ office. In the complaint, the lawmakers accuse Santos of violating federal ethics law.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Santos’ lies have crossed the line from unethical to criminal, and he must be investigated by the Federal Election Commission. It's miraculous how a failed congressional candidate with only $50K in 2020 was able to loan his 2022 campaign $705K. All signs point to a violation of campaign finance laws.

Republican narrative

Democrats have absolutely no leg to stand on when it comes to campaign finance violations and shady money-switching hands. They took millions of dollars from former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who has led one of the most notorious cons in American history. Democrats are the ones who need to be investigated, and their fixation on Rep. Santos is ironic at best.

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UK's Historic Satellite Launch Fails to Reach Orbit

Facts

  • The UK's attempt to launch the first European satellites into space failed after an "anomaly" prevented the object from reaching orbit. The UK government and Virgin Orbit, among other involved parties, say they will investigate the problem.
  • Thousands of onlookers gathered in Cornwall to watch the LauncherOne takeoff but began dispersing when news circulated that the rocket — which was strapped to a repurposed Boeing 747 — had encountered difficulties. It was expected to burn up on reentry, with all of the nine satellites onboard being destroyed.
  • In addition to causing Virgin Orbit's share price to decline by more than 20% following the incident, the failed launch dented the UK's ambition to become Europe's top provider of launch services. Other competitors include Norway and Sweden.
  • Satellites onboard the rocket belonged to various organizations, including the UK's Ministry of Defense, the sultanate of Oman, and the US National Reconnaissance Office, as well as British startups including Space Forge.
  • The UK Space Agency's Matt Archer said the failure was "obviously disappointing," but added that the group "knew this had a risk of failure." Space launches "don't always work," he continued. The rocket failed as it reached its second stage in which the satellites would have been deployed.
  • The UK's business minister Grant Shapps said on Tuesday that another attempt will follow. Britain's government invested roughly £20M ($24M) in the spaceport and launch.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Rocket technology is immensely complicated, and, although this result is disappointing, those involved will likely embark on another mission very soon. These launches are difficult, but one setback will not deter researchers from making further progress in the near future. There is no need to feel ashamed over this result.

Establishment-critical narrative

This failure has left multiple senior members of the UK government with egg on their faces. By trumpeting the success of the mission before it was guaranteed, Freeman and Shapps have embarrassed the upper echelons of government by appearing to utilize this launch as a public relations stunt rather than an advance for the sake of scientific progress.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that a fifth nation will launch a person into space by July 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Safety Agency Considering Gas Stoves Ban

Facts

  • Richard Trumka Jr., a US Consumer Product Safety (CPSC) commissioner, has called gas stoves a “hidden hazard” in an interview with Bloomberg. The agency is considering banning the cooking appliances, which are a source of indoor pollution believed to be linked to asthma.
  • Trumka said all options should be considered and added, "products that can’t be made safe can be banned.” No official proposal has been presented, and any regulation would require a “lengthy process.”
  • The CPSC has been mulling the effects of gas stoves for months. In October, Trumka recommended the agency seek public comments on hazards related to them. The CPSC could also implement emissions standards instead of a ban.
  • Reports from the American Chemical Society and NYU Law School’s Institute for Policy Integrity found that gas stoves emit pollutants, including nitrogen dioxide, ca​rbon monoxide and fine matter, at unsafe levels. In December, the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health attributed 12% of childhood asthma cases to gas stoves.
  • In December, federal lawmakers wrote a letter to CPSC chairman Alexander Hoehn-Saric warning about some of the hazards of gas stoves and how they disproportionately affect Black and Latino communities.
  • The Association for Home Appliance Manufacturers responded to the potential ban by saying that consumers can take simple steps to mitigate harmful emissions. Around 40% of US homes rely on gas stoves, and many users prefer gas to other types of stoves.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Evidence shows that gas stoves cause unnecessary illness and accelerate climate change, and every attempt to rid American homes of them should be made. Alternatives can be expensive, but the Inflation Reduction Act provides low- and moderate-income homes with cash incentives to switch. Public health should trump preference in most cases, including this one.

Republican narrative

The Biden admin is attacking American energy yet again, and the battle is headed to a kitchen near you. The CPSC cites very suspect studies to create a causation between gas stoves and asthma. And of course, climate change is always a driving force of Democrats' government tyranny. Gas stoves are just better than electric ones, and Americans should be free to choose their own type of cooker.

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