Day 322: Head of Russia's Wagner Group Says His Troops Control Soledar
The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has claimed that his forces have taken control of the small but significant Donetsk town of Soledar after weeks of fierce fighting. If confirmed, control of the town, which lies nine miles (15km) north of Bakhmut, would mark Russia's first battlefield breakthrough since the summer.
Posting a picture of himself surrounded by Wagner forces, in what appeared to be one of Soledar's salt mines, Prigozhin said: "Wagner units have taken the whole territory of Soledar under control." He added that Ukrainian troops were surrounded in the centre of the town and that: "There are street battles ongoing. The number of prisoners taken will be announced tomorrow."
Anti-Russia narrative
If Russia has in fact taken control of Soledar, it would be a hollow victory as it has little military or tactical benefit and it will not improve Russia's prospects elsewhere. Whatever happens in this isolated incident, Ukraine will win the wider war.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's liberation of Soledar is extremely significant as it paves the way for Russian encirclement of Bakhmut, as well as further advances in the Donetsk region which it will soon completely control.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FAA Computer Outage Grounds Flights Across the US
The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has lifted its order to ground all domestic flight departures after its Notice to Air Mission system — which provides pilots with pre-flight safety alerts — went down Wednesday morning. However, some airlines continue to endure resulting delays and cancellations.
With over 5.4K flights within, out of, or into the US having been delayed through Wednesday morning, the failure of the system that alerts pilots to hazards like runway closures and nearby construction cranes, was called "catastrophic" by the US Travel Association.
Pro-establishment narrative
With over 29K commercial flights across the US each day, the safety record has been almost flawless and is demonstrated by the rarity of major or serious incidents. The US regulatory system has ensured that flight and aircraft safety is the best in the world, which is a direct result of the regulations established by the FAA. If anything, the US shouldn't become complacent as it has come to expect safety and efficiency as the norm.
Establishment-critical narrative
The FAA's overbearing and overwhelming regulations are directly linked to air travel challenges for passengers. A significant percentage of delays and cancellations are due to FAA traffic management initiatives. These overreaching rules not only frustrate passengers and bog down the system, but they also burn pilot hours each month that impacts staff availability to ensure safe and timely flights.
US GOP Vote for Investigation of Biden Presidency
The new Republican-controlled US House of Representatives on Tuesday voted along party lines to launch a select subcommittee to investigate what they describe as Pres. Joe Biden's "weaponization of the federal government."
The investigation will include probing claims that the Biden admin. pressured Big Tech to censor views that run against its policies.
Democratic narrative
To secure the speakership, Kevin McCarthy granted concessions to the House GOP's most militant and conservative faction. While conservative activists have cheered the outcome and insist that a more right-leaning agenda is necessary, the historically Republican voters from well-educated suburbs are distancing themselves from this side of the culture war, which could devastate the party in 2024.
Republican narrative
Biden's corruption was a well-known Washington secret long before Donald Trump ran for office, and these so-called far-right Republicans pushed McCarthy for concessions. The GOP faction understands not only that it's Congress's duty to keep the executive branch in check but also that American voters from all sides are eager to learn what their leaders have been doing behind closed doors.
Cynical narrative
The start of the newest session of Congress highlights the pain of what happens when parties fail to collaborate as Republicans and Democrats become increasingly at odds. With the speaker technically not required to be a House member, per the Constitution, it may be best to pursue a third-party neutral figure next time to help calm the growing chaos in Washington.
Nerd narrative
There's a 71% chance that Republicans will keep control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Uganda Declares End to Ebola Outbreak
On Wednesday, Uganda declared an end to the Ebola outbreak that began in September 2022. Ugandan authorities had initially struggled to control the outbreak that infected 143 people and killed 55, but later swiftly brought the incident under control.
The World Health Organization (WHO) also declared an end to the outbreak after it determined that there were no new confirmed or probable cases in Uganda after 42 days, which is twice the incubation period for Ebola infections.
Narrative A
Since the severe Ebola outbreaks of 2013 and 2016, African health authorities have stressed the importance of being prepared for the next outbreak. Uganda did an excellent job coordinating its containment measures to make sure the results of this outbreak weren’t worse, and it was able to keep the virus from spreading beyond the country’s borders.
Narrative B
Generally, Uganda was fairly well prepared and did its best to contain this outbreak. But health authorities couldn't circulate a vaccine before transmission of the virus was stopped, opening the door for future outbreaks. A well-managed stockpile of unlicensed vaccines would make it possible to start a trial and, eventually, prevent future outbreaks.
Cardinal George Pell Dies at 81
Cardinal George Pell, who served as Archbishop of both Melbourne and Sydney before becoming the treasurer of the Vatican, died on Tuesday at age 81 after heart complications following hip surgery, according to Church officials.
Pell — Australia's most senior Catholic — was convicted in 2018 of sexual abuse while he was archbishop of Melbourne in 1996. After 13 months in prison, Pell's convictions were acquitted in 2020 by a unanimous decision in the Australian high court.
Narrative A
Pell was a champion for orthodox Catholicism in an age of liberalism and survived the painful story of being cleared of crimes he was found to have never committed. The victim of outrageous injustice, Pell's spiritual poise and strength throughout his legal ordeals show his true character. While abuse found within the Church should be rightly exposed, Pell's conviction was a miscarriage of justice.
Narrative B
After Pell's name was mired with accusations and charges, it's difficult to judge the truth surrounding allegations about him. However, at best, the Cardinal failed to uncover some of the worst cases of child sexual abuse in the Catholic Church's history — a controversy that will taint his legacy, regardless of any good he achieved.
UK: Tory MP Bridgen Loses Whip Over COVID Tweet
Britain's Conservative chief whip Simon Hart announced on Wednesday that MP Andrew Bridgen for North West Leicestershire has lost the party whip a few hours after — quoting a cardiologist — he compared the use of COVID vaccines to the Holocaust in a now-deleted tweet.
Bridgen, who is currently serving a five-day suspension from the House of Commons for allegedly violating parliamentary rules on registering financial interests, will now sit as an independent while a formal investigation takes place.
Pro-establishment narrative
Not only is Bridgen's comparison deeply offensive, but it's also dangerously wrong and highly irresponsible as COVID vaccines have saved millions of lives — and could have avoided some 600K deaths if a World Health Organization target of vaccinating 40% of the global population before 2022 had been met. Ideological beliefs should play no role in scientific debates as the safety and efficacy of vaccines are tested rigorously in clinical trials.
Establishment-critical narrative
While Bridgen's comment was undoubtedly tone-deaf, his punishment for sharing the views of a cardiologist is disproportionate to his so-called crime. Although rare, there has been evidence of vaccine side effects, and individuals should be free to question the establishment, regardless of their political role. The MP has deleted the tweet, and it's now time to focus on his alleged violation of parliamentary rules.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin will be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Lawyers Could Face Prosecution After Jan. 6 Referral
The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riots has referred four of former Pres. Trump’s lawyers for possible prosecution by the Dept. of Justice (DOJ), which some legal experts say could increase their chances of facing criminal charges.
The panel said John Eastman, Jeff Clark, Rudy Giuliani, and Kenneth Chesboro gave Trump erroneous advice while the former president was contesting the results of the 2020 election. The committee linked that advice to the events at the Capitol.
Democratic narrative
Finally, Trump’s cronies are closer to being charged for their role in an attempted coup to overthrow American democracy. Trump’s lawyers, most notably Giuliani, added fuel to the fire by giving wildly inaccurate advice and filing frivolous lawsuits with the explicit goal of obstructing the peaceful transfer of power. Everyone involved must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
Pro-Trump narrative
Between the sham Jan. 6 House committee and the biased Special Counsel appointed by Biden’s DOJ, the American people cannot trust justice to be fairly served. Jack Smith has demonstrated a clear political bias, as he was involved in the IRS targeting of conservative nonprofits, and now he’s heading up the latest phase of the witch hunt against Trump and his lawyers.
FTX Lawyers Say $5B in Crypto Assets Uncovered
At a Delaware bankruptcy court on Wednesday, lawyers for crypto exchange FTX said the company has recovered $5B worth of liquid assets. None of this amount reportedly includes any illiquid cryptocurrency assets.
The uncovered assets — allegedly including cash, liquid digital assets, and investment securities — comes as FTX under new CEO John J. Ray III is trying to recover as many customer and investor assets as possible following the company's collapse under the previous CEO and founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
Narrative A
The entire FTX saga has shown the corrupt and volatile nature of Sam Bankman-Fried, the crypto industry at large, and its regulators. As the company scrambles to find assets for paybacks, the crypto market is tanking. Entities like the federal Southern District of New York are probing how wide-ranging potential offenses are — with bribery, fraud, and campaign finance violations all in play.
Narrative B
Despite the myriad problems exposed by the FTX fiasco, cryptocurrency can't be counted out as a viable investment. With wages slowing and the service sector contracting in the US, it's possible that the Fed will ease up on interest rate hikes — something very positive for the crypto market. A market rebound may be on the way.
UK: Unions Criticize New Strike Laws
Under the terms of proposed new legislation in the UK, business secretary Grant Shapps would be able to determine statutory minimum service levels that certain public services must meet. The opposition Labour Party, along with unions, has criticized the bill, which may undermine the ability of many public sector workers to strike.
Unions have threatened legal action if the bill passes. Shapps has defended the legislation, which he has argued is intended to protect lives and livelihoods amid a wave of labor movement activity in recent weeks.
Right narrative
At a time when ambulance staff across the UK are refusing to attend even severe emergencies — such as heart attacks and strokes — Labour leader Kier Starmer's decision to stand against this legislation may turn out to be a mistake. Sunak is not trying to take away the right to strike, however, Starmer may be setting himself up to be portrayed as the friend of militant unions at an electoral cost.
Left narrative
These draconian anti-strike laws are undemocratic and, ironically, un-conservative. A key tenet of Thatcherism was battling against the unions, but the right to industrial action is key to libertarianism and free markets. The clear thinking of previous union reforms is conspicuously absent here — evidence that this is an ill-considered and rash response to current disputes rather than a carefully constructed piece of legislation guided by ideological principles.
Nerd narrative
There is a 22% chance that the Conservative party will form the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US, UK Weapons Killed Civilians in Yemen
An Oxfam report published on Wednesday says that US and UK weapons used in Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition killed at least 87 civilians and wounded 136 others in just over a year.
The report, which covered the period between January 2021 and February 2022, said that the UK government has ignored a “pattern of harm,” arguing that it amounts to legal grounds for Britain to limit arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West's role in the influx of weapons in the conflict— and by extension, its role in the country's crisis — can't be overlooked. As it hypocritically denounces Iran's suspected supply of weapons, Western countries themselves continue to heavily arm Saudi Arabia in the hopes of cozying up with the oil-rich nation, and innocent civilians are paying the price.
Pro-establishment narrative
The West's involvement in the conflict goes far beyond Saudi Arabia's worth as an ally; it's a response to the Iran-backed Houthis, who are a terrorist organization. Even though the Saudis have met some of the Houthis’ demands, the rebels won’t let up, leaving the Saudis with no choice but to continue their efforts.