13 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

UAE Names Oil Chief to Lead COP28 Talks

The Facts

  • The United Arab Emirates has named Sultan al-Jaber, who both leads Abu Dhabi’s state-run oil company and oversees its renewable energy efforts, to preside over the upcoming United Nations "COP28" climate negotiations in Dubai.

  • Al-Jaber, who serves as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co — a firm that produces 4M barrels of crude a day and plans to expand to 5M — is known to be a trusted advisor to UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Sultan al-Jaber has the credentials and background to be attuned to trends that are already ongoing and understand climate negotiations from a well-informed standpoint. The UAE is committed to energy reform and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 — Sultan al-Jaber will play an integral role in these goals.

Establishment-critical narrative

Putting an oil CEO in charge of the negotiations for COP28 is clearly a conflict of interest. This is proof of the fossil fuel interests taking control of the process and shaping it to meet their own needs. There is no place for pollution enablers like al-Jaber in climate negotiations.

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Swedish Company Finds Large Supply of Rare Minerals

The Facts

  • Sweden’s state-owned mining company LKAB announced on Thursday that it has identified over 1M tons of rare earth oxides in the county’s far north Kiruna area. It is the largest known deposit of such elements in Europe and could play a key role in the transition to green energy in the nordic nation and beyond.

  • Rare earth minerals are essential to many high-tech manufacturing processes and are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and many personal electronics.


The Spin

Narrative A

Rare earth elements are vital as we progress in a digital world and look to transition to green energy. Not only are these elements important for technological development and production, but they also have great significance in geopolitical struggles as Western countries look to become independent from China’s manufacturing. Sweden’s discovery has implications for Europe and beyond.

Narrative B

While rare earth minerals may play a key role in manufacturing, mining for them presents environmental concerns that cannot be overlooked. Unless carefully regulated, the extraction process can contaminate water and processing raw ore produces potentially toxic chemicals. This major discovery will need to be carefully managed and regulated in the years ahead.

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BLM Founder's Cousin Dies in Police Custody

The Facts

  • Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said on Wednesday that teacher Keenan Anderson, a relative of Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors, died after going into cardiac arrest on Jan. 3. His death came hours after he was tasered multiple times by police officers in a struggle.

  • The news comes as authorities released body-camera footage of the incident in Venice, California, showing Anderson begging for his life while being detained. An officer appears to be restraining him – shortly after a traffic collision – by holding his elbow on Anderson's neck.


The Spin

Right narrative

So far we know that the victim, who had cocaine and cannabis in his body, tried to flee the scene and resisted arrest after causing a traffic collision. Despite BLM supporters mobbing outside LAPD headquarters, the role that police officers played in this case remains unclear, as the Los Angeles County coroner's office is yet to rule on the cause or manner of Anderson's death.

Left narrative

The LAPD chief acknowledged that Anderson's death could have been avoided. Clearly, efforts taken in the wake of the 2020 killing of George Floyd to curb police violence have failed to change the dire reality that Black people face in the US. Anderson was the third man of color to die in violent encounters with the LAPD in the span of a week enough is enough.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that a large American city will fully abolish their police department before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Japan to Release Fukushima Water in Spring or Summer

Photo: Reuters

The Facts

  • The Japanese government said on Friday that it could release treated water from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean sometime in the coming spring or summer.

  • According to the revised policy, the government will also support fishermen in Fukushima and nearby prefectures to fight potential reputational damage resulting from the water release through a $385M fund.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The Japanese government's decision to contaminate the ocean with large volumes of radioactive waste violates the legal obligations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. By turning its back on the clear evidence that the "treated water" still contains harmful radionuclides, Japan has deliberately put marine and human life at risk of radiation exposure.

Pro-establishment narrative

The ocean release of Fukushima water is the most realistic and safe option available to improve the environment surrounding the nuclear plant. The Japanese government is doing its utmost — through preoperational analysis and preparation — to ensure people's safety, which is why all radioactivity levels meet regulatory requirements and are consistent with accepted international practices.

Cynical narrative

More information is needed to assess the potential impacts on environmental and human health of releasing the Fukushima water into the sea. Continuing with the pacific discharge plan at a time when the burgeoning climate crisis and growing scale of natural disasters pose significant challenges to the world would be premature.

Nerd narrative

There's a 28% chance that there will be a major nuclear accident before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Lawmakers Renew Push to Ban Congressional Stock Trading

Photo: fox

The Facts

  • US representatives Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) have reintroduced the bipartisan "TRUST in Congress Act." It requires members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children to place designated investment assets into a blind trust while the representative is serving in public office.

  • The so-called "Transparent Representation Upholding Service in Congress Act" was originally proposed in 2020. Democrat Spanberger has argued the bill would prevent insider trading and rebuild public confidence in elected officials.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The issue of how to prevent members of Congress from profiting from their positions in an improper manner has long existed. Lawmakers can obsess about money once they leave office. But while serving, they must stay focused purely on public interest and prove to their constituents that they are not self-serving.

Establishment-critical narrative

Given the continual violations of the previous so-called "Stock Act," it is unlikely that the TRUST in Congress Act would be effectively enforced. The current link between politicians and corporate interests is too strong, and for real change to occur, seismic changes in the political system must be made. Corporate greed has infected every ounce of American politics.

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Trump Businesses Fined 1.6M

The Facts

  • After being convicted last month of 17 felonies in total, two Trump organizations have been dealt a roughly $1.6M fine, with entities Trump Corp. and Trump Payroll Corp. to pay $810k and $800k, respectively.

  • Though Donald Trump himself wasn't convicted, his name came up dozens of times throughout the trial, mainly during the defense's examination of witnesses. Prosecutors, however, claimed Trump sanctioned the fraud, showing the jury checks he signed and a memo he initialed.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This case was just another attempt to undermine Trump and his organization with frivolous lawsuits. Weisselberg had already pleaded guilty and is the clear culprit behind the alleged scheme, yet the former president's opposition is quick to use this as a weapon against him. Democrats seemingly won’t stop until they’ve bled Trump dry through legal warfare.

Democratic narrative

Any attempts to separate Trump from the fraud committed by his company are naïve. While the former president may not be on trial in this particular case, there's no doubt that the businessman was fully aware of Weisselberg's — and the rest of his companies — doings. The defense had a losing case from the start.

Nerd narrative

There's a 37% chance that any US court will rule that Donald J Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 324: Ukraine Denies Fall of Soledar

The Facts

  • On Friday, the spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern military command rejected Russia's claims that it has captured Soledar in Donetsk, insisting the fight for the small mining town in the eastern part of the country was still going on. "Our units are there, the town is not under Russian control," Serhiy Cherevatyi stated.

  • Earlier, Russian lawmaker Viktor Vodolatsky said that Soledar is a turning point of the country's military operation, as it facilitates the capture of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk in Russian) and other cities, and allows Russian troops to cut off Ukrainian ammunition supply routes.


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

After taking Soledar, Russia can now use freed-up forces to achieve similar results in Bakhmut, which it can attack from multiple directions. The success in Soledar also opens the door for further Russian advances in the wider Donetsk region.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia is spreading false news about the capture of Soledar to give its population positive news from an otherwise disastrous military campaign. Russia is also desperately trying to shore up support ahead of future mobilization drives.

Nerd narrative

There's a 42% chance that Russian troops will reach the center of Bakhmut before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Final Report on Deadly Seoul Halloween Crush Released

The Facts

  • South Korea's special police team tasked with investigating the Halloween crowd crush that killed more than 150 people in Seoul last year published its final report on Friday, blaming poor safety planning and botched responses by police and public authorities for the tragedy.

  • This comes after the months-long probe involving over 500 investigators found that police and public officials failed to employ significant crowd control measures for the expected 100K attendance and failed to properly address emergency calls on Oct. 29.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

While this long-awaited report — in conjunction with the request for indictments — is a step in the right direction, there are serious gaps in holding all of those responsible to account. The probe team has scapegoated local municipal and emergency service officials to protect higher-level officials who should also be held liable for this tragic incident.

Pro-establishment narrative

This in-depth probe has allowed the special investigation team to get to the bottom of this tragic incident, referring everyone who allowed this outcome by failing to comply with their legal responsibilities to the prosecution. Despite public pressure to hold them accountable, high-level officials aren't responsible for crowd control duties.

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Report: ExxonMobil Predicted Climate Change

Photo: npr

The Facts

  • A study published in the journal Science on Thursday revealed that oil giant ExxonMobil accurately forecast global warming dating back to the 1970s while publicly downplaying the impacts.

  • In 2015, journalists discovered internal company documents which were used in the study. A company memo from the late 1970s stated Exxon’s fossil fuel products could lead to global warming with “dramatic environmental effects before the year 2050.”


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

While most people had an idea that ExxonMobil knew about the crisis and swept it under the rug, this new study reveals the depth of the oil giant’s complicity. ExxonMobil blatantly lied despite having some of the most accurate climate predictions recorded. Exxon must be held accountable and forced to pay for the irreparable harm it has done to our planet for the sake of profits.

Pro-establishment narrative

Activist groups and media have been misleading the public for years with their so-called “#ExxonKnew” campaign. Many flawed and false reports have come out trying to delegitimize ExxonMobile and its commitment to counteracting climate change. Nefarious actors are out in full force, and their reports are inaccurate.

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CIA Chief Visits Libya After Lockerbie Suspect Handover

The Facts

  • Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) announced on Thursday that CIA Director William Burns met with PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah just weeks after Tripoli authorities handed over a Libyan suspect allegedly involved in the 1988 Pan-Am Flight 103 bombing over Lockerbie, Scotland to the US.

  • The GNU said that they discussed cooperation as well as economic and security issues, posting a hand-shaking photo of the two on one of its social media pages. It's not clear when exactly the meeting took place.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Everything about the CIA's actions in Libya is highly suspicious and perhaps even illegal. Besides the fact that the US doesn't have an extradition treaty with Libya, it seems that Washington acquired Mas'ud via a brutal local militia that essentially kidnapped him from his home. How does the US expect to promote the rule of law and stability in Libya when it's actively undermining it?

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the details of how exactly Mas'ud was taken into custody might be murky, his arrest was a breakthrough for justice and the rule of law. Mas'ud is a murderer, and the families of his victims have the right to see justice. The Libyan government said as early as 2021 that it was open to extradition, so it's no surprise that such an action would be taken in conjunction with local authorities.

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