16 January 2023

Daily Newsletter

Israelis Protest Netanyahu's Legal Reforms

Facts

  • On Saturday, tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets across Israel to oppose PM Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed judicial reforms.
  • Israeli media reported that at least 80K people took part in the anti-government protest at Tel Aviv's Habima Square, with protests occurring in Jerusalem and Haifa as well.
  • The massive protests come after Netanyahu's government recently proposed a bill to change how Israel's judiciary operates. However, Netanyahu has stated that the policy is still flexible, saying it would be implemented "with careful consideration while hearing all the positions."
  • Protesting Israelis insist overhauling the country's legal system would allow the Knesset — or Israel's parliament — to overturn the Supreme Court's decisions and destroy the checks and balances of Israeli democracy.
  • However, justice minister Yariv Levin claimed that the reforms would restore the balance between the three branches of government, arguing "judicial activism had ruined the public trust in the legal system and made it impossible for governments to rule effectively."
  • The reforms include limiting the Supreme Court's power to rule against government policies, giving parliament control over the appointment of judges, and reducing the independence of legal advisers.

Spin

Narrative A

Netanyahu's far-right government's only agenda is to destroy Israel's democratic institutions, cripple judicial independence, foster corruption, and curtail freedom of speech and dissent. In a nutshell, the proposed reforms are a ploy to allow ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to abuse their authority and help Netanyahu — on trial for fraud, breach of trust, and bribery charges since 2019 — evade conviction.

Narrative B

Netanyahu's government is carrying out the people's will to strengthen democracy by restoring the balance between the judiciary, executive, and legislature. Contrary to the democracy doomsdayers' assertions, the proposed legal reforms would make Israel's judicial apparatus the most powerful in the world and ensure the country's radically democratic political culture remains healthy and vibrant.

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Nepal: Plane Crash Kills At Least 68

Facts

  • On Sunday, Nepal's civil aviation authority announced at least 68 people were killed after Yeti Airlines Flight 691 crashed near Pokhara airport.
  • The flight, which took off from Kathmandu with 68 passengers and a four-member Nepalese crew on board, reportedly caught fire and crash-landed in a gorge around 11:00 a.m. local time near the Seti River.
  • A spokesperson for the airline stated that the plane was scheduled to land at the newly-constructed Pokhara International Airport, however, contact was lost with air traffic control and the flight crashed just seconds before landing.
  • The cause of the crash remains unknown, but weather conditions were warm and not windy at the time.
  • Rescue teams involving hundreds of respondents from the Nepal Police, the Nepal Army, and the local community are carrying out a rescue operation. Meanwhile, a five-member committee has been formed to investigate the cause of the crash.
  • Sunday's incident was Nepal's deadliest air crash since 1992, when a Pakistan International Airlines Airbus A300 crashed into a hillside while approaching Kathmandu's Tribhuvan International Airport, killing all 167 people on board.

Spin

Narrative A

Sunday's accident, unfortunately, highlights Nepal's worrying aviation safety record — particularly for its domestic services, which has experienced 17 plane crashes and 273 deaths since 2000. Remote runways and outdated radars are potentially major factors for pilots navigating challenging terrain.

Narrative B

Nepal's rocky and treacherous topography makes it challenging for even the most experienced and accomplished pilots. The cause of Sunday's crash has not been ascertained yet, and it's unfair to blame all of Nepal's air tragedies solely on its infrastructure. The aviation industry and pilots must cope with extraordinary challenges in this terrain, which must always be kept in mind.

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Third Set of Classified Docs Found at Biden's Home

Facts

  • White House lawyer Richard Sauber on Saturday revealed in a statement that five additional pages of documents with classified markings from the Obama administration were found in Pres. Joe Biden's private home in Delaware.
  • Typically classified documents must be stored in a sensitive compartmented information facility. Sauber didn’t provide details about the contents of the new documents and reiterated that the Biden administration will continue to comply with the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ).
  • The classified material was discovered in the president's Delaware home last Thursday after Sauber traveled to the residence in order to collect and provide the DOJ with another document that Biden's team had found a day prior.
  • The previous document with classified markings had been found in the garage of the president's home, where he keeps his 1960s Chevrolet Corvette. These documents are in addition to the ones previously discovered at the Penn Biden Center in November 2022.
  • US Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed former DOJ official Robert Hur as a special counsel to lead a probe into Biden's possession of classified documents from his tenure as vice president.
  • Former Pres. Trump continues to also be investigated for his own possession of classified documents found at his Mar-a-Lago residence.

Spin

Republican narrative

As more documents are found, it’s looking like Biden finds himself in the same predicament as Trump, and the president’s protectors in the media have less room to differentiate the two situations. The GOP-controlled House will get to the bottom of this — including how much access Hunter Biden had to the documents — meaning Biden’s presidency could be in peril.

Democratic narrative

The Biden administration is being forthcoming about what it has found and cooperated with authorities. Clearly, Biden doesn’t want to have this hanging over his head the way a similar situation hampered Hillary Clinton in 2016. Every effort is being made to be transparent here, and any comparisons to Trump’s situation are false equivalencies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that Biden will not complete his first term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 327: Death Toll from Russian Attack on Dnipro Rises to 40

Facts

  • The death toll from a Russian strike on the Dnipropetrovsk city of Dnipro on Sunday has risen to at least 40 civilians killed, with at least 75 people reported injured, Ukrainian officials said Monday.
  • Ukraine's Office for the Prosecutor General said Kh-22 missiles were used and alleged the attack was a war crime. In a statement, a spokesperson said: "This type of missile [the Kh-22] leads to the greatest human casualties because the missile is extremely inaccurate... Therefore, the use of such weapons for targets in densely populated areas is clearly a war crime."
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia doesn't target civilians and that legitimate military targets were struck in the attack on Dnipro. He alleged that it was Ukrainian air defense missiles that struck the residential tower block; the claim couldn't be independently confirmed.
  • Elsewhere, in the last 24 hours, Russian forces continued shelling the previously held city of Kherson — reportedly striking a high-rise building, a boarding school and a children's hospital — killing four civilians and injuring 14 others, according to officials. Meanwhile, 14 civilians have been reported injured in repeat attacks on the region of Zaporizhzhia; seven were injured in Donetsk while two more were injured in Kharkiv; Dnipropetrovsk was also further shelled without reports of civilian casualties.
  • In Ukrainian attacks, Crimea governor Mikhail Razvozhayev on Monday said eight drones were destroyed by Russian air defenses over the port city of Sevastopol in an overnight attack. There were no reports of damage or civilian casualties.
  • Ukrainian attacks were also reported in the Russia-held city of Donetsk on Monday where two civilians were reported killed and four more were injured. The attacks reportedly struck energy infrastructure and a shopping mall. Officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported three additional injuries were recorded elsewhere in the region over the past day.
  • In diplomacy, Chinese authorities are working on efforts to promote Russia-Ukraine peace talks, vice foreign minister Xie Feng said at a forum hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies in Beijing on Monday. In the address, Xie, tipped to be the next Chinese ambassador to the US, also called for "mutual respect" in US-China relations, stating that "win-win cooperation" could reap "mutual benefit, reciprocity and balance."

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's indiscriminate missile attack on a residential building in Dnipro targeted civilians in close quarters — violating fundamental tenants of international humanitarian law. This is a war crime.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's attack on Dnipro did not target civilians. Legitimate military targets were struck in the attack and the residential block was damaged by Ukrainian air defenses.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance that the regions surrounding the Dnipro River (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson) will be under Russian control by June 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: Richest 1% Acquired Two-Thirds of All New Wealth

Facts

  • A report published on Monday by Oxfam found that the richest 1% acquired nearly two-thirds of all new wealth worth $42T created over the past two years.
  • During the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis ongoing since 2020, the fortune of the world’s wealthiest individuals reportedly soared by $26T, while the net worth of the remaining 99% of the world’s population rose by $16T.
  • The “Survival of the Richest” report added that billionaire fortunes are increasing by $2.7B a day even as 1.7B workers now live in countries where inflation is outpacing wages.
  • Oxfam – which analyzed data from Credit Suisse’s global wealth report and Forbes’ Billionaires and Real-Time Billionaires List – found that stock market surges, tax policies tilted in favor of billionaires, and rising prices helped swell the fortunes of the richest 1%.
  • According to an analysis by the Fight Inequality Alliance, Institute for Policy Studies, Oxfam, and the Patriotic Millionaires, a wealth tax of up to 5% on the world’s wealthiest could raise $1.7T a year. Oxfam's report found that the money could lift 2B people out of poverty, deliver universal healthcare, and fund a global plan to end hunger.
  • The report coincides with the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, which brings together 52 heads of state and leaders from the worlds of politics, finance, business, and activism to discuss issues of global concern, including climate change and economic crisis.

Spin

Left narrative

The growing gap between the rich and poor, in wealth and income, is bad for everyone. When power and wealth are concentrated in a few hands, it usually leads to corruption, exploitation of the masses, and loss of faith in political and economic systems. The first step to reducing racial, social, and economic inequality is to pour more money into the hands of those who need it most.

Right narrative

While many have hit the panic button on widening income inequality reports, taxing the super-rich is not the solution to alleviate poverty, hunger, illiteracy, or unemployment. A wealth tax would do nothing to help low- and middle-income earners. Penalizing high-net-worth individuals, however, would drive out the wealth creators, bring in less revenue, and weaken the economy over time.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the world will create the first Trillionaire by Jun 21, 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Italy's Top Mafia Boss Matteo Messina Denaro Arrested

Facts

  • On Monday, Matteo Messina Denaro, Italy's most wanted mafia boss, was arrested in Sicily after evading capture for 30 years. The alleged leader of the Cosa Nostra mafia was reportedly captured at a private clinic in Palermo where he was set to receive cancer treatment.
  • Messina Denaro, also known as "Diabolik," was sentenced in absentia to life in prison in 1992 for his role in the murders of Giovanni Falcone and Paolo Borsellino, both of whom were anti-mafia prosecutors.
  • He also faces charges for his role in the 1993 bombings in Florence, Rome, and Milan and the kidnapping of Giuseppe Di Matteo, a 12-year-old boy used as a pawn to dissuade his father from testifying against the mafia. Giuseppe Di Matteo was held for two years before being murdered.
  • During the decades-long manhunt, authorities struggled to capture Messina Denaro because of a lack of up-to-date photos. The investigators developed digitally reconstructed images and used intelligence from former mafia members turned informants.
  • He was the last of three fugitive top-level mafia bosses to be captured, with police focusing on him after it had arrested "boss of bosses" Salvatore "Toto" Riina in 1993 and Bernardo Provenzano in 2006, who respectively spent 23 and 38 years on the run.
  • Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Sicily to congratulate the police and the prosecutors on the takedown of what her office described as the "most significant representative of mafia syndicates," marking a "great victory for the state that shows it never gives up in the face of the mafia."

Spin

Narrative A

Even after 30 years of evading capture, Matteo Messina Denaro still has a healthy following of devoted fans. To his cohort of followers, he is a Robin Hood who works for the poor and corrects mistakes. In his eyes, he is a philosopher and even a folk hero. As one of the world's most wanted men, he continued to live lavishly and serve his "family." He carried no shame and no remorse for his actions, in fact, he continued the family business while in hiding. This arrest is the first step towards justice for his victims.

Narrative B

This arrest is a turning point in Italy's decades-long battle against organized crime as the alleged Cosa Nostra crime syndicate chief Messina Denaro had been on the country's most wanted list since the early 1990s. Myths about his ability to dodge authorities and theories that he was receiving protection from state officials had emerged during his 30 years of evading capture. Hopefully, it will not take another 30 years to bring the next Mafia leader to justice.

Narrative C

Yes, Messina Denaro was arrested but the Italian law is not up to snuff in holding mafia members accountable for their violent and heinous crimes. Despite protests across the political divide, Cosa Nostra's key operator Giovanni Brusca has been on a four-year probation after serving a year sentence for his role in attacks including the one that killed anti-mafia prosecutor Giovanni Falcone and the murder of Di Matteo, while the truth about these crimes remains unknown. The law seems to be working against the victims.

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Germany's Defense Minister Resigns

Facts

  • Germany's defense minister Christine Lambrecht resigned on Monday amid criticism of her handling of military support to Ukraine, communication blunders, and slow progress in implementing plans to rearm the country.
  • This comes as Berlin has been increasingly pressed to send German-built Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine or at least authorize their delivery from third countries such as Poland. Kyiv considers them essential in Ukraine's war effort against Moscow.
  • Lambrecht is the highest-ranking official of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government, which entered office last year, to resign. Her departure is likely to be seen as a blow to Scholz and his Social Democratic Party after he recently called her a "first-rate defense minister."
  • In a written farewell statement, she praised "the valuable work of the soldiers and many people" in the department and blamed the media for preventing a factual debate about the military and Germany's security policy.
  • Multiple media outlets reported over the weekend that her resignation was imminent, following a series of missteps — including a minute-long controversial New Year's Eve video whose message opposition lawmakers considered inappropriate in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
  • German media have speculated that Social Democratic Party leader Lars Klingbeil, long-time Labor Minister Hubertus Heil, and the special parliamentary commissioner for the Bundeswehr military, Eva Högl, could replace Lambrecht as Defense Minister, but Scholz stated it was too early to discuss it on Monday.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Lambrecht was evidently the wrong person for the job. She did not take the Ukraine war seriously enough and used a helicopter for personal use. Now that she has resigned, Chancellor Scholz may appoint a qualified minister that will help to revert decades of neglect for the German armed forces.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Lambrecht has reportedly committed several gaffes during her term in the Scholz government, the main reason she came under fire was her hesitancy to ramp up defense aid to Ukraine as Berlin faces pressure from other NATO allies. Lambrecht was simply under immense political pressure from this simmering geopolitical conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Pakistan Launches Nationwide Anti-Polio Campaign

Facts

  • On Sunday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formally announced the nation's first nationwide anti-polio campaign. The campaign was slated to begin on Monday and target more than 44M children under the age of five for vaccination against the debilitating illness.
  • The announcement comes following a surge in infections throughout 2022 that paralyzed 20 children. No new infections have been reported thus far in 2023.
  • Over five days, the campaign will dedicate more than 360K health employees to inoculate the 44.2M children that reside across 156 districts. The children will also be provided vitamin supplements aimed at reducing infections from other infectious diseases.
  • Polio, a viral disease that attacks the nervous system of children, often resulting in paralysis, continues to threaten the well-being of children in both Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan — the last two countries worldwide where this risk occurs.
  • PM Sharif credits his government and contributors like Bill Gates and the World Health Organization for their work to eradicate the disease from Pakistan. He also awarded health workers, who have recently come under violent militant attacks, for their ongoing work.
  • The campaign was originally set to begin in August 2022, however, catastrophic flooding throughout the country impacted by erratic monsoon rains disrupted the delivery of services.

Spin

Narrative A

As healthcare workers and community organizers fight to eradicate polio, they must also fight for their lives. More than 50 workers have died at the hands of violent religious extremists, who threaten and kill people due to unmerited conspiracy theories regarding vaccines. Since the death of Osama bin Laden in 2011, these conspiracy theories have grown more prominent and dangerous. Extremist violence is a major factor hindering Pakistan's polio eradication efforts.

Narrative B

The government of Pakistan and its contributors recognize that the most vulnerable areas are the areas that are the most difficult to reach due to security, and are doing their best to address this. The people of Pakistan also understand that polio is not the singular concern; other basic services are needed from the government to ensure the well-being of people no matter if they live in rural issues or have migrated. Polio is a consequence of the need for rural development.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the WHO will certify the worldwide eradication of Polio by early July 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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McCarthy Calls for Spending Cuts to Raise Debt Ceiling

Facts

  • On Sunday, new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he would like to negotiate with Pres. Biden on the raising of the debt ceiling while renewing his calls to cut spending. This comes as the US Dept. of the Treasury says the government may not be able to pay its bills by the summer.
  • In a Fox News interview, McCarthy said, “I want to sit down with him now so there is no problem," referring to Biden. He added that there can be spending cuts without hurting key entitlement programs.
  • Last Friday, Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen warned that the US would likely reach its $31.4T statutory limit on Jan. 19. She wrote a letter to McCarthy saying the Treasury can take “extraordinary measures” to prevent defaulting on obligations but urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling.
  • Defense spending could be a source of the cuts with some GOP representatives warning against cutting $75B from the defense budget. McCarthy said the cuts would return spending close to 2022 levels of $800B and cut from the 2023 budget of $857B.
  • The last time the US hit its debt ceiling was in 2011, which resulted in sinking stock prices and the first time the US government had its credit rating downgraded. Markets currently suggest that Wall Street thinks the debt crisis will be resolved.
  • White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded to McCarthy’s call for negotiations by saying Congress must raise the debt limit “without conditions.” She added that “We [Biden admin.] will not be doing any negotiation over the debt ceiling.”

Spin

Republican narrative

McCarthy is right that the US cannot just spend into oblivion and recklessly raise its credit limit. This country wastes so much money in ways that the American people don’t even see, and the GOP was elected to its majority on a mandate to bring fiscal responsibility back to Washington.

Democratic narrative

Republicans are using the US economy as a pawn in an extortion scheme to get whatever they want. The US is risking its reputation because the Republican Party does not care if it crashes the economy. If the GOP wants to cut public spending, it can do it the legislative way.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that the US will default on its sovereign debt by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Electric Vehicles Accounted for 10% of Global Share in '22

Facts

  • Recent data and market estimates point to the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) reaching a historic milestone — they now make up around 10% of the worldwide market share for the first time.
  • Sales of fully electric cars reached 7.8M units in 2022, a 68% increase from the prior year.
  • Although EV sales grew in market share in the US from 3.2% in 2021 to 5.8% in 2022, the US still lags behind Europe and China, which were most responsible for the worldwide increase.
  • The growth in EV market share occurred while new car sales declined by 8% in the US, and 7% in Europe. China saw a growth of 4% in new car sales.

Spin

Left narrative

This is great news because electric vehicle sales are outperforming projections, and a path to net zero carbon emissions is at least visible, if not guaranteed. More must be done to encourage the transition from fossil fuels and to address issues with the EV industry, including inequality of access to EVs and sourcing of materials for batteries.

Right narrative

EVs are going to bankrupt states and countries that rely on the oil and gas industry for their citizens’ livelihood. Sales of new EVs should be highly curtailed in desolate areas like Wyoming because there’s no charging infrastructure in these places. Also, critical minerals needed for batteries could lead to excess pollution. These vehicles are not silver bullets.

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NYC Mayor Adams: 'No Room' for Migrant Surge

Facts

  • New York City Mayor Eric Adams made an unprecedented visit to the border city of El Paso, Texas on Sunday and claimed that “there is no room in New York” for busloads of migrants being sent from border states to the nation’s most populous city.
  • During his visit, Adams referred to the surge of migrants as a “national crisis,” adding that he and El Paso Mayor Oscar Leeser were “on the front lines, and we need federal support."
  • Adams' visit comes a week after Biden made his first trip to the southern border as President. The mayor said New York has taken in over 40K migrants in the last year and has spent $366M on services for asylum seekers.
  • Adams issued an emergency declaration in October over the migrant crisis and cited the strain it is putting on major US cities. El Paso has struggled with the surge and has converted schools and convention centers to house migrants, yet many still sleep on the streets.
  • The migrant crisis is projected to cost the city as much as $2B. New York City asked the federal government to provide $1B in FEMA reimbursement as part of a $1.7T omnibus spending bill passed in December.
  • The Biden admin. announced a plan to build on Title 42 expulsions while also allowing thousands more migrants to enter the US. The admin. says it has been assisting communities receiving migrants by providing FEMA grants.

Spin

Republican narrative

Adams is now pleading for help because his city cannot handle the effects of the Democratic Party’s policies. Yet he continues to incentivize mass illegal migration by opening more and more shelters. He doesn't truly care about stopping the border crisis — he just wants to shift the financial burden onto the federal government.

Democratic narrative

Adams, and other mayors of major cities across the US, are doing their best to find a solution to a problem that is being exacerbated by Republican governors. Migrants are being shipped without any coordination as GOP politicians pull shameless political stunts without any regard for the well-being of migrants and the cities receiving them.

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