UK Blocks Scottish Gender Recognition Bill
On Monday, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government blocked the Gender Recognition Reform Bill passed by the Scottish parliament last month — the first time the UK has invoked the power to veto a Scottish law.
The UK government invoked Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998 to stop the Scottish bill from becoming law, saying the bill "would have an adverse impact on the operation of Great Britain-wide equalities legislation."
The bill allowed transgender people in Scotland to self-declare as a different gender from the one they were assigned at birth. It also removed the need for a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria.
Establishment-critical narrative
This veto is an attack on Scottish democracy and indicates contempt for progress. After years of public prejudice against transgender people, things began to move forward in Scotland. However, Rishi Sunak's decision could erase all of those gains and will negatively impact an already marginalized and vulnerable community. This is a dark day for trans rights and a dark day for democracy in the UK.
Pro-establishment narrative
The so-called reforms in this bill seriously threaten women's rights and children's safety in Scotland as well as in the UK. By stripping all requirements to change one's gender, the Scottish legislature was making women vulnerable in female-only spaces. The veto has been painted as an unprecedented constitutional crisis, but the truth is that different gender recognition policies in the UK cannot coexist.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China's Population Drops for First Time Since 1961
On Tuesday, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the country's population has declined for the first time in more than 60 years.
The population decreased to 1.411B in 2022 — a drop of 850K from 2021. The latest figures reportedly mark China's first population decline since 1961 during the great famine, triggered by former leader Mao Zedong's "Great Leap Forward" policy.
While the country's 2022 birth rate declined to 6.77 births per 1K people from 7.52 in 2021 — the lowest birth rate on record — it also recorded its highest death rate since 1976, at 7.37 deaths per 1K people, compared to 7.18 deaths in 2021.
Narrative A
It's hardly surprising that China's population growth would eventually slow greatly. However, in order not to jeopardize further economic development, Beijing now has to focus not only on continuing on the path from an industrial to a service sector economy but also on expanding technological innovation. Moreover, if China's economic policy takes into account the consumption needs not only of the young but also of the growing elderly population, its population may decline — but its economy is set for further growth.
Narrative B
The population decline in China risks numerous negative consequences for its economic growth, as the Chinese economic model remains reliant on a large supply of labor. This hardly-reversible demographic trend is likely to trigger not only higher prices due to increased labor costs but cause more problems with the underfunded national pension system. As a result, China may struggle to surpass the US economically in the foreseeable future, unless government policies to boost fertility produce results.
Narrative C
The fact that India is set to replace China as the world's most populous country could yield major global economic impacts since significant production capacity will be moved to the Subcontinent. Added to this is the West's geopolitically-motivated tilt toward New Delhi. Both developments may boost India's economic and political stance against China — with its economy potentially surpassing not only China's but also that of the US by the second half of the century.
China's 3% GDP Growth One of Its Worst in Decades
China's economy expanded well below the government target in 2022, growing by just 3% — one of the worst performances in nearly half a century — largely due to frequent COVID outbreaks and lockdowns, extreme heatwaves, and a historic downturn in the property market.
Beijing had set a target growth rate of 5.5% last March, but the data unveiled on Tuesday by the PRC's National Bureau of Statistics was better than the 2.8% forecast in a Reuters poll.
This comes as China's fourth quarter growth beat market expectations, expanding 2.9% in October-December from a year earlier but slower than the third quarter's 3.9% pace. This is the second worst level since 1976, the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution.
Anti-China narrative
The outlook for the Chinese economy is uncertain as the property sector is weighed down by enormous corporate debt and the Chinese population has begun to shrink. It's unclear if some workers will come back to their cities of work after Lunar New Year travels. Worse yet, foreign demand has fallen due to higher interest rates which have dampened the demand for imported goods from China.
Pro-China narrative
The PRC's economy is certain to improve this year. The signs are there, showing a vast market potential that will result in growth. China has made economic stability its top priority for the new year and will pursue progress while ensuring stability. Compared with other major economies the 3% growth rate is relatively remarkable. The worsening global economic situation needs China's steady growth as a stabilizer. Clearly, the latest figures show that China is maintaining its position as the world's second-largest economy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Steer Lightning Bolts With Lasers
On Monday, the journal Nature Photonics published a report in which scientists demonstrated that a laser beam could be used to guide the path of lightning. The report claims that powerful lasers could potentially reroute lightning strikes away from critical locations and be an alternative to lightning rods.
In experiments, scientists demonstrated this ability by firing powerful laser pulses from the top of a Swiss mountain during severe storms over several months in 2022.
Aurélien Houard, a physicist at École Polytechnique in Palaiseau, said, "metal rods are used almost everywhere to protect from lightning, but the area they can protect is limited to a few meters or tens of meters....the hope is to extend that protection to a few hundred meters..."
Narrative A
Lightning strikes are a daily and dangerous occurrence, although ironically, research indicates that this will become a diminishing threat with climate change. For now, however, 100 lightning strikes happen every second across the globe. An airplane is struck by lightning about once in every thousand flight hours. It's prudent to explore laser technology as an upgrade over traditional metal lightning rods.
Narrative B
Weather alteration has a long and questionable history. US taxpayers paid $3.6M per year to fund the altering of the weather during the Vietnam War. In 1978, the Environmental Modification Convention went into effect banning weather modification during warfare. The treaty doesn't provide accountability or transparency, leaving the world's most dangerous powers to potentially violate the treaty. Without better regulation, this development is a slippery slope.
Report: Taliban Buying Blue Ticks on Twitter
On Monday, BBC reported that at least two senior Taliban leaders and four of its supporters are using Twitter's paid-for verification feature, acquiring blue ticks next to their user names.
The senior Taliban leaders are identified as the head of the Taliban's department for access to information, Hedayatullah Hedayat, and the head of the media watchdog at the Afghan Ministry of Information and Culture, Abdul Haq Hammad.
Muhammad Jalal, one of the four prominent Taliban supporters with a blue tick, applauded CEO Elon Musk for buying and "making Twitter great again" the same day the BBC published its report.
Pro-establishment narrative
Twitter's leniency toward the Taliban threatens to glorify violence and legitimize human rights abuses in Afghanistan. By allowing Taliban-affiliated accounts to use its platform, Musk potentially perpetuates extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests and torture, systematic segregation of women in Afghanistan, and the war on freedom.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Taliban may not be considered the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan by the international community, but they have a right to a social media apparatus to counter what they consider Western propaganda. Musk's Blue Tick services don't promote Taliban messages, they simply allow community members to form their own opinions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 46% chance that Afghanistan will be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Indonesia: Police Officers On Trial Over Soccer Stampede
An Indonesian court began a trial on Monday of three police officers, a security official, and a match organizer charged with negligence over their alleged roles in a deadly soccer stadium stampede that claimed the lives of 135 people last October
They could face a maximum prison sentence of five years if convicted over the disaster at the Kanjuruhan stadium in Malang, East Java, which reportedly occurred after police fired tear gas to disperse fans who flooded the pitch after the home team lost to their rival.
The incident has prompted widespread questions surrounding the training and professionalism of Indonesia's police, with an official fact-finding team concluding that the "excessive" and "indiscriminate" use of tear gas by the police had set off a panicked run for the exits.
Narrative A
Soccer riots are relatively common in Indonesia, and this tragedy highlights the problems with the use of tear gas by Indonesian police — which has played a role in many stadium disasters in the nation's history. It's baffling that the police claim they didn't know that tear gas was banned by FIFA. The entire tragedy can be blamed upon years of mismanagement and corruption at the heart of Indonesian soccer.
Narrative B
Indonesian soccer seems to be driven by hooliganism, and it must be remembered that the disaster began after the home team was beaten. While police and management of Indonesian soccer must be held accountable, we must also hope that the disaster will be a long-overdue wake-up call to stand up against hooligan culture and crowd violence.
Day 328: Russia to Expand Troops to 1.5M
On Tuesday, following a decree from Russian Pres. Putin, defense minister Sergei Shoigu chaired a meeting with deputies and senior commanders in which he pledged to facilitate Russia's buildup of its armed forces to 1.5M troops by 2026.
In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the decision was a direct consequence of the West's so-called "proxy war" with Russia. He said: "It stems from the war that the countries of the collective West are waging... which includes indirect involvement in military activities and elements of an economic war, a financial war, legal warfare, steps that go beyond the legal field and so on."
The announcement came as 14 NATO surveillance planes were due to arrive in Romania on Tuesday. NATO said the Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) surveillance planes would only conduct reconnaissance flights over NATO territory. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials announced the resumption of railway traffic to Romania on Tuesday.
Pro-establishment narrative
After losses of personnel and territory it had captured, Russia's plan to build up its army to 1.5M soldiers is further acknowledgment from Putin that this war isn't going as expected.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's buildup of troops is a direct consequence of the West's proxy war against Moscow. Had the West not carried out its crusade against Russia, while pumping Ukraine full of weapons and military aid, this situation could have been averted.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Supreme Court Hears Turkish Bank Case
The US Supreme Court on Tuesday began hearing arguments over Turkish state-owned Halkbank's bid to avoid criminal charges in the US for allegedly helping Iran evade economic sanctions. This comes after lower courts ruled in favor of the US government, allowing the prosecution to proceed.
At issue in Türkiye Halk Bankasi v. United States is whether a foreign company can be held accountable under US law if it is owned by a foreign government; foreign countries enjoy sovereign immunity and cannot face criminal charges in the US.
The Turkish bank, which was criminally charged for allegedly participating in a scheme to launder billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil and natural gas proceeds, claims that the US Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act extends to state-owned businesses.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US Supreme Court must drop this unlawful and unprecedented prosecution against Halkbank as the standing of this lower court's ruling would threaten future indictments of any sovereign state. By doing so, it would also help the smoothing out of critical relations between Ankara and Washington.
Pro-establishment narrative
Halkbank may argue that it is entitled to sovereign immunity, but this notion rests on a false premise that the bank and the Turkish government are the same. Established international law and practice are unequivocal that despite being a publicly owned corporation, the bank is not a sovereign entity. This is about conforming to well-established international norms.
Trial Over Musk's Tesla Tweets Begins
On Tuesday, a class action suit claiming Tesla shareholders were defrauded by tweets from CEO Elon Musk was scheduled to begin against the billionaire and his company in San Francisco.
Musk, who now owns Twitter, claimed in an Aug. 7, 2018 tweet that he had secured $72B in financing to take Tesla private; he then held firm to that notion in a follow-up tweet. Tesla’s stock price rallied until it was revealed a week later that he didn’t have the funding.
This trial is the result of a class-action suit filed by investors who owned Tesla stock for a 10-day period around Musk’s tweet, which is believed to have caused a $14B swing in wealth for investors during that time.
Narrative A
Musk and Tesla are already behind the eight ball because of the judge’s summary judgment that the tweets were untruthful and recklessly shared. Neither Musk’s previous settlement with the SEC nor his erratic behavior since taking over Twitter has done him any favors, and this case is probably going to cost him another devastatingly large chunk of his fortune.
Narrative B
There’s no way for Musk to get a fair trial. Tainted coverage of the situation surrounding his tweets, in addition to other reporting on his career, will sway the jury against him, which is why the judge should’ve allowed a change of venue. The plaintiffs should also be more appreciative that despite what might’ve happened around the tweets, their Tesla shares are now worth six times as much as they were valued back then.
Former New Mexico GOP Candidate Arrested Over Shootings
Solomon Peña, a former candidate for New Mexico’s legislature, was arrested Monday for allegedly paying, and conspiring with, four men to shoot at the homes of four political opponents — two state legislators and two county commissioners.
Peña, a Republican who lost the race for New Mexico House District 14, has been accused of being the mastermind behind the shootings, which targeted the homes of Democratic politicians between December and January.
Albuquerque police say Peña paid four gunmen $500 to carry out the shootings, and that Peña participated in one himself. Evidence includes confidential witness testimony, cellphone records, bullet casings, and surveillance footage, according to Albuquerque’s police chief.
Democratic narrative
Baselessly claiming election fraud has now reached a critical point where "extreme MAGA Republicans" are resorting to violence against their political opponents — an extremely devastating development. If elected officials now have to fear literal gunfire, this is a blow to democracy, and the GOP is to blame.
Republican narrative
The justice system exists for a reason, and if Peña has orchestrated this horrible string of crimes, he should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. The GOP strongly condemns all forms of violence.